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Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)


Ian

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Mark my words and hear me now....Irene is coming to get us. Ok.

EEEEEEEEEEEK

I am going down with the boat mapgirl built

Still in the process of being built... if Irene misses us, at least it will be ready for the next potential flood.

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How would one rate the media hype, seems pretty lowkey.

A snippet from WTOP's front story headline.

The rapidly intensifying Irene that's already cut a destructive path through the Caribbean is the first hurricane to seriously threaten the U.S. in almost three years,

Is RI really occuring right now?

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Doesn't the GFS have a hard time with hurricanes? I remember someone explaining it once. Something about slight variations of intensity and speed cause fairly large shifts in the track 3-4 days out and the GFS doesn't do well with tropical systems. I guess this can obviously be said about all models.

I may be totally out to lunch on this. Either way, I can't get all excited or bummed with model runs until we are under 3 days.

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Euro gives us all lots more rain and higher winds than GFS. Don't have every time step on Wunderground, but at 18z Sunday, Irene is over Georgetown, DE. Giving the I-95 corridor ~30mph sustained winds. Heavy rain arrives after 6z Sunday. Probably 3"+ for everyone.

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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --DAY 5-6 FCST HINGES UPON TRACK OF IRENE. THE NHC FCST AS OF 19Z

TAKES THE CYCLONE ALONG CSTL NC TO THE MOUTH OF THE CHSPK BAY BY 12Z

SUN. AFTER THAT...EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION MAY BE UNDERWAY.

MEANWHILE...A CDFNT WL BE DROPPING SEWD...PROVIDING A ZONE OF LIFT

ACRS CWFA. ITS TOO SOON TO DIVE INTO DETAILS BYD THAT...SINCE

TRACK/SPD FCSTS STILL HV ROOM TO CHG...SPCLY IN TERMS OF

EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. BUT...THIS SCENARIO WL PROVIDE THE

POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAIN W/IN CWFA. POPS HV BEEN BUMPED UP TO CAT FOR

THAT REASON. FOR THAT MATTER...CANT RULE OUT ANY OF THE ELEMENT

HAZARDS...REGARDLESS OF SPECIFIC CATEGORIZATION. THEREFORE...PLS

REFER TO NHC ADVYS FOR THE LTST INFORMATION.

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