MN Transplant Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:08 PM, winterwxluvr said: Can you link that please? The link is rediculously long with the google map viewer. Go to wunderground.com Under the "Maps & Radar" tab, choose "Model Maps" On the right sidebar you'll be able to choose the Model and parameters. It is not the greatest user-friendly interface, but it is zoom-able, which is awesome. I guess we'll see this afternoon how quickly the data comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm just enjoying being smack dab in the middle of the extrapolated cone of uncertainty 5 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:08 PM, winterwxluvr said: Can you link that please? http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Its right on the WunderMap... check the model box on the right and select ECMWF... I dont' know when they added that - I use WunderMap all the time and this is the first time I've seen it. Thats friggin' awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Re: MN Transplant - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:17 PM, wxmeddler said: Re: MN Transplant - LOL. I went in just a step further. The zoom capability is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:14 PM, MN Transplant said: The link is rediculously long with the google map viewer. Go to wunderground.com Under the "Maps & Radar" tab, choose "Model Maps" On the right sidebar you'll be able to choose the Model and parameters. It is not the greatest user-friendly interface, but it is zoom-able, which is awesome. I guess we'll see this afternoon how quickly the data comes in. Good stuff. Thanks for sharing that info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:17 PM, caviman2201 said: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ Its right on the WunderMap... check the model box on the right and select ECMWF... I dont' know when they added that - I use WunderMap all the time and this is the first time I've seen it. Thats friggin' awesome Looks like they only have runs starting at 00z, so it might be brand new today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Awesome find, MNTransplant! But I can't imagine that updates very fast...we'll see this afternoon. Those kind of winds in the Bay would certainly mean lots of coastal flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:37 PM, WxUSAF said: Awesome find, MNTransplant! But I can't imagine that updates very fast...we'll see this afternoon. Those kind of winds in the Bay would certainly mean lots of coastal flooding. The NAM is coming in a little slower, but not much, as far as I can tell. I'll make a post on the main board, this is too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 wunderground is awesome.. the google of weather. they also (old news now but still cool) added all sorts of imagery/etc to go with their tropical storm archive of old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 11 a track -- 75 mph cane over the bay (well, listed as inland so maybe not quite over the bay) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bodhi Cove Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:37 PM, WxUSAF said: Those kind of winds in the Bay would certainly mean lots of coastal flooding. This. One of the negatives of living and working near the bay; storm surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 They're in the DT/Euro camp for now Later in the forecast period Irene is forecast to turn northward as it rounds the western portion of the ridge. The spread in the guidance increases by day three...ranging from the coastal mid-Atlantic states to well offshore...with the UKMET along the left side and the GFS/NOGAPS along the right side of the guidance envelope. The updated track is closest to the ECMWF and is a little left of the multi-model consensus. It is important to remind users not to focus on the exact forecast track...especially at days 4 and 5...since the most recent 5-year average errors at those forecast times are 200 and 250 miles...respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I hope for a 3-6" soaking if this comes our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Can you blame them? My understanding is that while NHC (and NWS in general) are directed to be faithful to meteorology exclusively, most guys have a keen awareness of politics. Probably marginally 'better' to put the risk on the table and wave it off 48 hours in advance (when most folks are just becoming aware) than to announce it East now, and possibly have a "surprise" hurricane landfall with little notice. On 8/23/2011 at 3:03 PM, Ian said: They're in the DT/Euro camp for now Later in the forecast period Irene is forecast to turn northward as it rounds the western portion of the ridge. The spread in the guidance increases by day three...ranging from the coastal mid-Atlantic states to well offshore...with the UKMET along the left side and the GFS/NOGAPS along the right side of the guidance envelope. The updated track is closest to the ECMWF and is a little left of the multi-model consensus. It is important to remind users not to focus on the exact forecast track...especially at days 4 and 5...since the most recent 5-year average errors at those forecast times are 200 and 250 miles...respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 2:59 PM, Ian said: 11 a track -- 75 mph cane over the bay (well, listed as inland so maybe not quite over the bay) By day 5, the circle of uncertainty is lol huge. MDStorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 3:12 PM, eurojosh said: Can you blame them? My understanding is that while NHC (and NWS in general) are directed to be faithful to meteorology exclusively, most guys have a keen awareness of politics. Probably marginally 'better' to put the risk on the table and wave it off 48 hours in advance (when most folks are just becoming aware) than to announce it East now, and possibly have a "surprise" hurricane landfall with little notice. I think their call is fine. The GFS, in my view, is pretty on par with the Euro reliability wise... Despite some statistical 500mb score or whatever. But until the Euro gives in it needs respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 3:13 PM, MDstorm said: By day 5, the circle of uncertainty is lol huge. MDStorm It's a standard size for statistical error. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Didn't the GFS do better on east coast storm last winter then the Euro? Not saying this is like a winter storm and hasn't the euro over done the low pressures lately too? On 8/23/2011 at 3:21 PM, Ian said: I think their call is fine. The GFS, in my view, is pretty on par with the Euro reliability wise... Despite some statistical 500mb score or whatever. But until the Euro gives in it needs respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This reminds me of 12/26/10 when the Euro was showing the weenie track for so long and the GFS was stubbornly a fish or SNE storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 If only that day 5 plot where to come exactly true... LOL. Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 3:25 PM, WhiteoutMD said: Didn't the GFS do better on east coast storm last winter then the Euro? Not saying this is like a winter storm and hasn't the euro over done the low pressures lately too? I was thinking about that too. It does seem awful deep. I have not looked at the steering flows based on strength.. i've heard both that stronger is more west and stronger is more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 3:29 PM, Ian said: I was thinking about that too. It does seem awful deep. I have not looked at the steering flows based on strength.. i've heard both that stronger is more west and stronger is more east. Stronger earlier is more east. Stronger later won't make much difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 1:42 PM, Ian said: i swear on one thing.. this place is predictable as hell. people -- even mets-- will deny an eastward move till it's over europe. Truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 3:26 PM, WxUSAF said: This reminds me of 12/26/10 when the Euro was showing the weenie track for so long and the GFS was stubbornly a fish or SNE storm... Any references to 12/26/10 should be grounds for automatic banning. GFS time...if it shifts any further east, it would be hard not to think that the Euro is out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This has MoD written all over it....on WBALs website BREAKING NEWS: HURRICANE IRENE MAY MOVE INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNDAY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 GFS coming in slightly south and west of 6Z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 3:55 PM, snowfan said: This has MoD written all over it....on WBALs website BREAKING NEWS: HURRICANE IRENE MAY MOVE INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNDAY Sensational news alarmists...WBAL should be ashamed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 3:55 PM, snowfan said: <br>This has MoD written all over it....on WBALs website<br><br>BREAKING NEWS: HURRICANE IRENE MAY MOVE INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNDAY<br><br><br>Top headline on WTOP as well (mentioning a Chesapeake Bay hit by Sunday) , lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 On 8/23/2011 at 3:55 PM, snowfan said: This has MoD written all over it....on WBALs website BREAKING NEWS: HURRICANE IRENE MAY MOVE INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY SUNDAY good but could be better needs MAJOR or max wind speed with no explain that it will be less intense further north to get all the way there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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