BethesdaWX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 ECMWF dumps 4-5" of rain on the DCA/BWI corridor with howling surface winds...unlikely it is that extreme/comes that far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 ECMWF dumps 4-5" of rain on the DCA/BWI corridor with howling surface winds...unlikely it is that extreme/comes that far inland. What would the winds be at the surface around here IF it were right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 What would the winds be at the surface around here IF it were right? Edit: Found the scale, max sustained between 25-30kts, so Isabel caliber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Euro shows 6 inches at iAd lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 06z shows .50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 06z shows .50 I'm I reading this wrong? Did it put its initial position as ON Hispaniola? Wrong? Wouldn't that have an effect on its final outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm I reading this wrong? Did it put its initial position as ON Hispaniola? Wrong? Wouldn't that have an effect on its final outcome? I would think so but to me it is still too early. It does seem as if it is another battle between the GFS and Euro. I know which one I tend to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Euro. I know which one I tend to believe. Me too -- which ever one gives us our least desired outcome. Seriously though, it's kind of troubling that the Euro is the only one that far west, and the GFS even shifted east some at 6z, heh. Though Adam said the Euro ensemble members were very similar to the OP? We'll see, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Though Adam said the Euro ensemble members were very similar to the OP? We'll see, I guess. The Euro ENS does go east of the ops after landfall, but not by much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samdman95 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 looks breezy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It smells fishy this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 what are the chances that this just grazes the NC Coast and we get clouds and a few sprinkles only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 what are the chances that this just grazes the NC Coast and we get clouds and a few sprinkles only? Increasing I'd say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 what are the chances that this just grazes the NC Coast and we get clouds and a few sprinkles only? About 80% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 what are the chances that this just grazes the NC Coast and we get clouds and a few sprinkles only? It's like you can see the future. High, is my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
astarck Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 what are the chances that this just grazes the NC Coast and we get clouds and a few sprinkles only? Don't forget gusty 5-10mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 ch-ch-ch-choke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 i swear on one thing.. this place is predictable as hell. people -- even mets-- will deny an eastward move till it's over europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 i swear on one thing.. this place is predictable as hell. people -- even mets-- will deny an eastward move till it's over europe. Worse is that the true eastward shift doesn't normally take place until inside 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I can already tell this place is going to be annoying come winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Irene looks to be pretty large at landfall at least. I'm hoping the center does pass to our east. SE quadrant pretty much falls apart shortly after landfall so being in the NW quadrant seems like the most fun even if it is just some rain a breezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Worse is that the true eastward shift doesn't normally take place until inside 48 hours. we've got time for a good move i just can't remember one a tropical cyclone ever bending back to the west after it goes east for 2-3 days. yeah, i know it's happened... just wait till the euro skims the coast at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 i just want to see some rain...but it sounds like that may not be happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 ch-ch-ch-choke So, you're saying I can leave town without the dread of missing something interesting. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 we've got time for a good move i just can't remember one a tropical cyclone ever bending back to the west after it goes east for 2-3 days. yeah, i know it's happened... just wait till the euro skims the coast at 12z. in all seriousness - what is pushing it east? I've heard talk of a s/w causing something with the trough? (this is where my lack of real wx skills comes into play) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 in all seriousness - what is pushing it east? I've heard talk of a s/w causing something with the trough? (this is where my lack of real wx skills comes into play) it's mostly just riding up the edge of the atlantic subtropical ridge thru the weakness between it ant the conus subtropical ridge. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_042m.gif the shortwave troughs help shape it/perhaps pull it north a bit. u can see the first moving from dc north (weak) with another digging behind there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 TWC has us in a Moderate impact area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 it's mostly just riding up the edge of the atlantic subtropical ridge thru the weakness between it ant the conus subtropical ridge. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_042m.gif the shortwave troughs help shape it/perhaps pull it north a bit. u can see the first moving from dc north (weak) with another digging behind there. Ah... so for it to stay west, I guess the weakness between the two ridges would need to shift west a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 i swear on one thing.. this place is predictable as hell. people -- even mets-- will deny an eastward move till it's over europe. You will have to concede that it looks to be "western" Europe at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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