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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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Incorrect... the core has become somewhat poorly defined outside of a northern eyewall remnant feature that is pushing onshore.

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Has become? Looked horrible all day yesterday to me anyway.. Looks like center is going in between banks and sounds, double shot.<br><br><br>

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Has become? Looked horrible all day yesterday to me anyway.. Looks like center is going in between banks and sounds, double shot.<br><br><br>

It had an inner eyewall with decent composure yesterday... you can't even call the current structure an eyewall but more of a fragment.

"Landfall" about to occur at Cape Lookout, NC.

yep :)

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Wilmington, NC (KILM) reporting winds of NW 40 G 62 at the 7am hour. KILM is more than 80 miles WSW of the center, which is roughly making landfall at Cape Lookout right now. That's an impressive ob for a location that far on the west side of the storm.

On the east side, Hatteras (KHSE) had SE 55 G 77 at 7am.

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Has become? Looked horrible all day yesterday to me anyway.. Looks like center is going in between banks and sounds, double shot.<br><br><br>

The entire SW quadrant rain shield shredded about 3 am ET. I thought it was a radar gap. The dry air entrained and trough hit Irene in the gut. Strong TS winds and hurricane gusts with some storm surge and a report of a tornado seems to the predominant reports from the NE quadrant

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2065

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0652 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN NC...SERN VA...EXTREME SERN MD...SRN

DE.

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 810...

VALID 271152Z - 271345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 810 CONTINUES.

CONTINUE WW FOR MIDDLE-OUTER BAND SUPERCELL POTENTIAL. WW MAY BE

CLEARED IN AND S OF INNER-CORE REGION OF TC WHERE UNFAVORABLE

CONVECTIVE MODE AND...PER NHC DISCUSSIONS...LACK OF CONVECTION IN

BROAD SWATHS OF SYSTEM...SHOULD REMAIN PREVALENT.

PRIMARY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO ATLANTIC COAST AND

WITHIN RELATIVELY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MOVING ASHORE. AS OF

1145Z...THREE PRIMARY/BKN BANDS OF TSTMS WERE EVIDENT...EACH

POTENTIALLY YIELDING SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELLS AND EXTENDING ESEWD FROM

WAL AREA...FROM CAPE CHARLES...AND FROM SRN VA BEACH. TORNADO

POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH MORE THAN ABOUT 50-60 NM INLAND AS

ACTIVITY MOVES INTO PROGRESSIVELY MORE PRECIP-COOLED AIR

MASS...LOSING BOTH INFLOW-LAYER BUOYANCY AND DEFINITION. VWP DATA

AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 0-1 KM SRH INCREASING ATTM ACROSS SERN

VA...AND BECOMING FAVORABLE OVER ADJACENT PORTIONS CAPE CHARLES

AREA. SRH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING OVER MD

COAST REGION AS WELL. WITHIN THAT FIELD OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL

SHEAR...MAIN FACTOR DRIVING TORNADO RISK WILL BE BUOYANCY. SFC

DATA...FCST SOUNDINGS AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATE CURVED WEDGE

OF FAVORABLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR WRAPS FROM SE-NW AROUND

NERN QUADRANT OF TC...BECOMING NARROW IN WIDTH AND MRGL IN MAGNITUDE

INLAND FROM SERN VA/NERN NC COAST. 500-800 J/KG MLCAPE MAY BRUSH

CORRIDOR FROM HAMPTON ROADS REGION NEWD ACROSS SRN DELMARVA

PENINSULA PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF CORE-REGION PRECIP SHIELD OF IRENE.

THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NNEWD ACROSS REMAINDER SERN

VA...PORTIONS MD AND PERHAPS PORTIONS DE...THROUGH REMAINDER

MORNING...AND IN STEP WITH TRANSLATIONAL NNEWD MOTION OF TC CENTER

FARTHER S.

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Core is looking better defined since landfall,,,

I know it's because of frictional convergence but I've jokingly said to others it seems this storm likes land interaction more than it does open water since this is now twice the storm has seemingly gotten a stronger near land. The convection around the eyewall or anywhere near it when it was a bit off shore was pathetic. Then it got close to land and the convection there is now much more intense...which should be transvering the higher winds aloft to the surface better than it was over water. And finally the eye actually has cleared more since landfall with respect to radar returns unlike earlier where it was filled with light rain/returns.

Pretty interesting storm in the sense it never got it's act together really despite pretty decent conditions to do so, even though I know it's had some weak to modest ssw shear to deal with. It's amazing to me that some storms can have very intact and intense inner cores/eyewalls with only modest mid and upper level support while some can't ever take advantage of better conditions.

Pretty clear the storm has been over hyped with respect to the winds and the primary threat here will be the extremely heavy rainfall after so much rain in the northeast of late. Even though the storm is no where near as strong as forecasted, the ground is so saturated that you don't need a cat 2 or 3 storm to do major damage due to flooding and down trees due to saturated ground as many already know. I don't know if the flood threat has really been hit hard enough though imo. 8 to 12 inches of rain in these areas in the northeast sets the stage for some possibly extreme flooding. That's not to say the media hasn't focused on it though, to their credit they have..but I just think the flooding is or could be the real story with this system over the northeast.

Since we have an unusually low wind speed in relation to flight level winds, It would be very interesting to see how high the winds are on top of some of the skyscrapers in places like new york. Does anyone know if there any tall buildings that provide weather data from the top?

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I know it's because of frictional convergence but I've jokingly said to others it seems this storm likes land interaction more than it does open water since this is now twice the storm has seemingly gotten a stronger near land. The convection around the eyewall or anywhere near it when it was a bit off shore was pathetic. Then it got close to land and the convection there is now much more intense...which should be transvering the higher winds aloft better than it was over water. And finally the eye actually has cleared more since landfall with respect to radar returns unlike earlier where it was filled with light rain/returns.

Pretty interesting storm in the sense it never got it's act together really despite pretty decent conditions to do so, even though I know it's had some weak to modest ssw shear to deal with. It's amazing to me that some storms can have very intact and intense inner cores/eyewalls with only modest mid and upper level support while some can't ever take advantage of better conditions.

Pretty clear the storm has been over hyped with respect to the winds and the primary threat here will be the extremely heavy rainfall after so much rain in the northeast of late. Even though the storm is no where near as strong as forecasted, the ground is so saturated that you don't need a cat 2 or 3 storm to do major damage due to flooding and down trees due to saturated ground as many already know. I don't know if the flood threat has really been hit hard enough though imo. 8 to 12 inches of rain in these areas in the northeast sets the stage for some possibly extreme flooding. That's not to say the media hasn't focused on it though, to their credit they have..but I just think the flooding is or could be the real story with this system over the northeast.

Since we have an unusually low wind speed in relation to flight level winds, It would be very interesting to see how high the winds are on top of some of the skyscrapers in places like new york. Does anyone know if there any tall buildings that provide weather data from the top?

It has to be the lack of instability this year along with dry air and some light shear. If this storm had been in 2004, 2005, 2008 or even last year, no doubt Irene would have reached atleast Cat 4 intensity in the Bahamas, and likely maintained major hurricane strength into North Carolina.

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I know it's because of frictional convergence but I've jokingly said to others it seems this storm likes land interaction more than it does open water since this is now twice the storm has seemingly gotten a stronger near land. The convection around the eyewall or anywhere near it when it was a bit off shore was pathetic. Then it got close to land and the convection there is now much more intense...which should be transvering the higher winds aloft to the surface better than it was over water. And finally the eye actually has cleared more since landfall with respect to radar returns unlike earlier where it was filled with light rain/returns.

Pretty interesting storm in the sense it never got it's act together really despite pretty decent conditions to do so, even though I know it's had some weak to modest ssw shear to deal with. It's amazing to me that some storms can have very intact and intense inner cores/eyewalls with only modest mid and upper level support while some can't ever take advantage of better conditions.

Pretty clear the storm has been over hyped with respect to the winds and the primary threat here will be the extremely heavy rainfall after so much rain in the northeast of late. Even though the storm is no where near as strong as forecasted, the ground is so saturated that you don't need a cat 2 or 3 storm to do major damage due to flooding and down trees due to saturated ground as many already know. I don't know if the flood threat has really been hit hard enough though imo. 8 to 12 inches of rain in these areas in the northeast sets the stage for some possibly extreme flooding. That's not to say the media hasn't focused on it though, to their credit they have..but I just think the flooding is or could be the real story with this system over the northeast.

Since we have an unusually low wind speed in relation to flight level winds, It would be very interesting to see how high the winds are on top of some of the skyscrapers in places like new york. Does anyone know if there any tall buildings that provide weather data from the top?

I could see some damage happening to the taller skyscrapers and a lot of glass falling-I spent an hour yesterday moving computers/equipment away from windows even though I'm on the 3rd floor of my building in Midtown. Also, the funneling effect between buildings could be intense.

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