apm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 These are great, please keep 'em coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 These are great, please keep 'em coming. Wanting to learn: Is that showing where the hurricane has been tracking vs. the projected past? IE, if so - is it really tracking that far east compared to the track? (If not, what am I looking at here?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Wanting to learn: Is that showing where the hurricane has been tracking vs. the projected past? IE, if so - is it really tracking that far east compared to the track? (If not, what am I looking at here?) "That far" is a few miles, and considering the size of the hurricane...a few miles here and there won't make major differences in landfalling effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Recon obs are showing steady NNE movement the last few fixes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Recon obs are showing steady NNE movement the last few fixes. Wondering if this is a fix within the old center, which is NE of the actual center, showing a east component, while the larger circulation is still going N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 NOAA plane had a 76kt surface drop in the NE quad (splash with winds from 120 degrees.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Somewhat confused -- reading intelligent comments from folks on here and the NWS that the core has eroded, that the interior structure of Irene is not in great shape, and that definitely on a weakening trend. Then I see Steve D tweeting that the storm is intensifying and will remain at 100+ mph or more at landfall. So what's going on? Strengthening? Weakening? We have no idea because hurricanes are massively complex things that are beyond the scope of our comprehension? ;-) It appeared to be attempting to strengthen the last 2-3 hours, the pressure did lower slightly but at this point due to the size of the system I don't anticipate we'll see an increase in the winds to more than 105 mph. Within 18 hours the shear should increase, land effects may come into play, and the cooler SSTs will be impacting the storm...thereafter it should weaken though the wind field could broaden as it extends up the coast...note the broadening wind field will mainly be TS winds not hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Somewhat confused -- reading intelligent comments from folks on here and the NWS that the core has eroded, that the interior structure of Irene is not in great shape, and that definitely on a weakening trend. Then I see Steve D tweeting that the storm is intensifying and will remain at 100+ mph or more at landfall. So what's going on? Strengthening? Weakening? We have no idea because hurricanes are massively complex things that are beyond the scope of our comprehension? ;-) The radar may be deceiving, but it looks to me like convection is trying to wrap around the center again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Well she's still over water, so you can't fully say she won't strengthen but the interior structure of Irene hasn't looked good for about the last 24 hours. Ingestion of some drier air, a bit of shear, ERC perhaps wasting some of the ideal conditions she had and not allowing her to strengthen, etc. has all played a factor in her being less than what she may have been. Still a lot of dry areas in between the main bands of the Hurricane with the most impressive winds in that core right around the immediate center. She also has now made a more discernable turn to the NNE it appears as well, to me anways. I wouldn't be completely shocked if she tries to do some brief re-organizing but to call it strengthening is a bit of a stretch I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It appeared to be attempting to strengthen the last 2-3 hours, the pressure did lower slightly but at this point due to the size of the system I don't anticipate we'll see an increase in the winds to more than 105 mph. Within 18 hours the shear should increase, land effects may come into play, and the cooler SSTs will be impacting the storm...thereafter it should weaken though the wind field could broaden as it extends up the coast...note the broadening wind field will mainly be TS winds not hurricane. You obviously dont think that this storm may be helped to maintain strength up this way by the positioning of the storm in the right front quad of the upper jet creating a vaccuum aloft allowing to increase vertical motions. I have seen some info that this could go warm core assymetric before hitting here due to this jet feature. You are really downplaying this and seem to insist this will be no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 To me if the pressure is dropping then there is strengthening. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 To me if the pressure is dropping then there is strengthening. IMO The last AF drop was 951. 950 before that. It's been steady most of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 To me if the pressure is dropping then there is strengthening. IMO As long as you don't expect the wind to increase due to that pressure drop in this case, ok. By the time I'd expect the wind to respond upward it'll be to close to land and be weakening. Also with Irene previously when we've seen nice pressure drops the wind never really responded greatly like you'd typically expect. Sort of a weird little cyclone Irene has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 About 40 minutes ago, a tropical shower with solid low-level circulation went right over Cape Hatteras...that shower is now heading toward Hyde county. Going to be a busy night in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 All -- thanks for the responses.. So is the thought that she holds pat at 100-105 mph until landfall? Seems there are some strengthening trends, but also indications that Irene isn't playing her cards well to really do anything more than hold steady? Thoughts on intensity when the storm reaches Southern DE/SNJ/NY? Appreciate everyone's input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I feel for the MHX office tonight. A parade of mini supercells will be moving into their CWA all night. Issuing TORs for those are insanely difficult and frustrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 To me if the pressure is dropping then there is strengthening. IMO The pressure is not dropping... its remaining steady. If the storm wind radius continues to get larger, then most of the latent heating that is taking place is not going to intensifying the storm but rather to make it larger. If the pressure remains the same and the storm continues to get larger, the pressure gradient will decrease and the winds will also decrease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The dropsondes I have seen seem to indicate the SFMR may be a little too low on the surface winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The pressure is not dropping... its remaining steady. If the storm wind radius continues to get larger, then most of the latent heating that is taking place is not going to intensifying the storm but rather to make it larger. If the pressure remains the same and the storm continues to get larger, the pressure gradient will decrease and the winds will also decrease. completely agree with this, I wouldn't be surprise to see a mid cat 1 as it passes Cape Hatteras and a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane off the coast of Jersey with a slow weakening trend from there. New Yorkers will probably complain "we evacuated for this" and then when the next one comes who knows what the people will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bannor Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 question, is the center located in that pinhole or is it just south of that heavy convection to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 question, is the center located in that pinhole or is it just south of that heavy convection to the north? The hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I hope this is ok... Shot of Holden Beach Pier this afternoon, before Dark, As Irene Approaches.. For ya'll fellers that like to Surf.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmorelights Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like its getting organized again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The dropsondes I have seen seem to indicate the SFMR may be a little too low on the surface winds. I agree with this. The best estimate of intensity is probably a blend of SFMR, the dropsondes, and standard reduction of FL. Which would probably keep them at 100 mph. It does look a little better on IR, and with the pressure holding steady, keeping the winds steady is probably the best course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Irene has some calmness in the center DROPSONDE SPLASHED WITH 2KT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 79kt surface on drop, with one of the outer rain bands as splash pressure was 986m. NE quad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I agree with this. The best estimate of intensity is probably a blend of SFMR, the dropsondes, and standard reduction of FL. Which would probably keep them at 100 mph. It does look a little better on IR, and with the pressure holding steady, keeping the winds steady is probably the best course. Indeed, the latest dropsonde in the East Quad had 90 kts FL and 79 kts surface; SFMR only had 60 kts at the time of the drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Losing longitude, looks to be about 76 deg 52 min W now. 023400 3232N 07651W 6966 02720 9512 +145 +119 137003 007 006 001 00 023430 3231N 07653W 6967 02721 9508 +149 +122 342010 013 006 001 00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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