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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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Wanting to learn: Is that showing where the hurricane has been tracking vs. the projected past? IE, if so - is it really tracking that far east compared to the track? (If not, what am I looking at here?)

"That far" is a few miles, and considering the size of the hurricane...a few miles here and there won't make major differences in landfalling effects.

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Somewhat confused -- reading intelligent comments from folks on here and the NWS that the core has eroded, that the interior structure of Irene is not in great shape, and that definitely on a weakening trend.

Then I see Steve D tweeting that the storm is intensifying and will remain at 100+ mph or more at landfall.

So what's going on? Strengthening? Weakening? We have no idea because hurricanes are massively complex things that are beyond the scope of our comprehension? ;-)

It appeared to be attempting to strengthen the last 2-3 hours, the pressure did lower slightly but at this point due to the size of the system I don't anticipate we'll see an increase in the winds to more than 105 mph. Within 18 hours the shear should increase, land effects may come into play, and the cooler SSTs will be impacting the storm...thereafter it should weaken though the wind field could broaden as it extends up the coast...note the broadening wind field will mainly be TS winds not hurricane.

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Somewhat confused -- reading intelligent comments from folks on here and the NWS that the core has eroded, that the interior structure of Irene is not in great shape, and that definitely on a weakening trend.

Then I see Steve D tweeting that the storm is intensifying and will remain at 100+ mph or more at landfall.

So what's going on? Strengthening? Weakening? We have no idea because hurricanes are massively complex things that are beyond the scope of our comprehension? ;-)

The radar may be deceiving, but it looks to me like convection is trying to wrap around the center again.

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Well she's still over water, so you can't fully say she won't strengthen but the interior structure of Irene hasn't looked good for about the last 24 hours. Ingestion of some drier air, a bit of shear, ERC perhaps wasting some of the ideal conditions she had and not allowing her to strengthen, etc. has all played a factor in her being less than what she may have been. Still a lot of dry areas in between the main bands of the Hurricane with the most impressive winds in that core right around the immediate center. She also has now made a more discernable turn to the NNE it appears as well, to me anways. I wouldn't be completely shocked if she tries to do some brief re-organizing but to call it strengthening is a bit of a stretch I think.

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It appeared to be attempting to strengthen the last 2-3 hours, the pressure did lower slightly but at this point due to the size of the system I don't anticipate we'll see an increase in the winds to more than 105 mph. Within 18 hours the shear should increase, land effects may come into play, and the cooler SSTs will be impacting the storm...thereafter it should weaken though the wind field could broaden as it extends up the coast...note the broadening wind field will mainly be TS winds not hurricane.

You obviously dont think that this storm may be helped to maintain strength up this way by the positioning of the storm in the right front quad of the upper jet creating a vaccuum aloft allowing to increase vertical motions. I have seen some info that this could go warm core assymetric before hitting here due to this jet feature. You are really downplaying this and seem to insist this will be no big deal.

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To me if the pressure is dropping then there is strengthening. IMO

As long as you don't expect the wind to increase due to that pressure drop in this case, ok. By the time I'd expect the wind to respond upward it'll be to close to land and be weakening. Also with Irene previously when we've seen nice pressure drops the wind never really responded greatly like you'd typically expect. Sort of a weird little cyclone Irene has been.

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All -- thanks for the responses..

So is the thought that she holds pat at 100-105 mph until landfall? Seems there are some strengthening trends, but also indications that Irene isn't playing her cards well to really do anything more than hold steady?

Thoughts on intensity when the storm reaches Southern DE/SNJ/NY?

Appreciate everyone's input.

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To me if the pressure is dropping then there is strengthening. IMO

The pressure is not dropping... its remaining steady. If the storm wind radius continues to get larger, then most of the latent heating that is taking place is not going to intensifying the storm but rather to make it larger. If the pressure remains the same and the storm continues to get larger, the pressure gradient will decrease and the winds will also decrease.

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The pressure is not dropping... its remaining steady. If the storm wind radius continues to get larger, then most of the latent heating that is taking place is not going to intensifying the storm but rather to make it larger. If the pressure remains the same and the storm continues to get larger, the pressure gradient will decrease and the winds will also decrease.

completely agree with this, I wouldn't be surprise to see a mid cat 1 as it passes Cape Hatteras and a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane off the coast of Jersey with a slow weakening trend from there. New Yorkers will probably complain "we evacuated for this" and then when the next one comes who knows what the people will do.

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The dropsondes I have seen seem to indicate the SFMR may be a little too low on the surface winds.

I agree with this. The best estimate of intensity is probably a blend of SFMR, the dropsondes, and standard reduction of FL. Which would probably keep them at 100 mph. It does look a little better on IR, and with the pressure holding steady, keeping the winds steady is probably the best course.

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I agree with this. The best estimate of intensity is probably a blend of SFMR, the dropsondes, and standard reduction of FL. Which would probably keep them at 100 mph. It does look a little better on IR, and with the pressure holding steady, keeping the winds steady is probably the best course.

Indeed, the latest dropsonde in the East Quad had 90 kts FL and 79 kts surface; SFMR only had 60 kts at the time of the drop.

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