Major Hurricane Irene live tracking

[Bannor]

[Chicago Storm]

Recon with a SW/NE pass...

Max FL wind of 78kts in the SW quad and 91kts in the NE quad. Pressure back down 1mb to 950mb.

Edit: Two wind maxima showing up in at least the NE quad. The inner features a max of 83kts and the outter is the strongest, with 91kts.

URNT12 KNHC 262114

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 26/20:38:40Z

B. 31 deg 36 min N

077 deg 19 min W

C. 700 mb 2665 m

D. 65 kt

E. 240 deg 56 nm

F. 331 deg 77 kt

G. 236 deg 79 nm

H. 950 mb

I. 11 C / 3048 m

J. 15 C / 3053 m

K. 2 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF308 2909A IRENE OB 04

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 83 KT NE QUAD 20:49:30Z

MAX FL TEMP 17 C 229 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR

INBOUND PK FL WNDS SW QUAD 78 KTS AT 79 NM RADIUS AND SECONDARY PEAK 76 KTS AT 36 NM

ONE INNER EYEWALL FRAGMENT NE QUAD WITHIN 12 NM OF FIX

PEAK WINDS FOUND IN OUTER RAINBAND 34 NM TO THE NE

[A-L-E-X]

Something like August 1893 has been reasonably analyzed though-- it wasn't that far in the past to be relegated to obscurity lol.

Two of the old time storms I continue to be impressed by are August 1893 (which we already discussed as destroying Hogs Island) and the Great September 1815 storm which actually created Long Beach Barrier Island by separating it from the Rockaway Peninsula.

I think the idea that west of the track doesn't get severe conditions is misinformation.... check out where that storm tracked and what happened.

http://en.wikipedia....er_Gale_of_1815

The storm struck Long Island on September 23, 1815, probably coming ashore near Center Moriches (Ludlum). On the south shore of Long Island it broke through the barrier beach and created the inlet that still isolates Long Beach, which had previously been an eastward extension of The Rockaways.

1815, 1944 and Donna all had massive effects on the west side of the storm and they ALL went WELL east of where this is progged to go.

[Bannor]

[dan88]

To give an idea of just how broad this system is, here is the full leg of the NE quad from the recon. Of particular note is the very gradual gradient of the pressure, along with the very broad windfield.

(Had to delete/repost since editing messed up formatting)

203830 3136N 07719W 6956 02716 9501 +148 +024 246002 004 019 003 03 Center fix from vortex

203900 3138N 07719W 6970 02706 9503 +150 +022 134008 010 017 004 03

203930 3139N 07717W 6958 02717 9511 +143 +020 129018 021 027 005 00

204000 3141N 07716W 6967 02710 9523 +136 +017 132025 028 038 009 00

204030 3142N 07715W 6961 02725 9541 +125 +014 127035 038 055 019 00

204100 3143N 07713W 6978 02711 9564 +112 +011 124046 048 058 034 00 Heavy convection from here for a bit, 34 mm/hr here

204130 3144N 07712W 6971 02726 9574 +109 +006 123055 059 064 032 00

204200 3146N 07711W 6961 02749 9590 +105 +002 128064 065 063 026 00

204230 3147N 07709W 6963 02758 9608 +101 -002 132064 064 056 028 00

204300 3148N 07708W 6968 02760 9614 +104 -007 135064 064 058 026 00

204330 3149N 07706W 6959 02786 9624 +108 -011 137066 068 059 024 00

204400 3150N 07705W 6969 02785 9617 +125 -012 133068 069 057 013 00

204430 3152N 07704W 6962 02797 9633 +118 -013 136073 074 058 014 00

204500 3153N 07702W 6971 02799 9637 +123 -014 138071 073 059 006 00

204530 3154N 07701W 6964 02815 9644 +125 -015 139073 074 061 006 00

204600 3155N 07659W 6965 02822 9655 +124 -015 138075 075 061 006 00

204630 3156N 07658W 6966 02830 9663 +125 -014 139074 074 062 003 00

204700 3158N 07656W 6962 02841 9673 +125 -011 140076 078 062 004 00

204730 3159N 07655W 6971 02840 9681 +122 -009 141080 081 063 005 00

204800 3200N 07653W 6956 02862 9692 +120 -007 143079 081 065 006 00 SFMR max

204830 3201N 07652W 6967 02860 9702 +119 -005 143082 082 064 005 00 Recon dropsonde here with 76kt splash .06N .07W of drop

204900 3202N 07650W 6966 02869 9709 +119 -005 142083 083 063 009 00 Local Flight level Max

204930 3204N 07649W 6963 02876 9720 +116 -004 142083 083 064 007 00

205000 3205N 07647W 6967 02878 9736 +108 -004 142082 082 064 008 00

205030 3206N 07646W 6967 02889 9740 +111 -005 142080 081 062 010 00

205100 3207N 07644W 6964 02902 9743 +117 -007 141079 080 063 009 00

205130 3209N 07643W 6960 02913 9760 +109 -008 142076 078 062 007 00

205200 3210N 07642W 6969 02906 9762 +114 -008 144077 077 062 004 00

205230 3211N 07640W 6967 02915 9770 +112 -008 144079 079 060 002 00

205300 3212N 07638W 6963 02925 9779 +110 -008 144079 080 060 001 00

205330 3213N 07637W 6967 02927 9785 +110 -006 144077 078 059 002 00

205400 3215N 07635W 6963 02936 9794 +109 -002 146076 076 060 001 03

205430 3216N 07634W 6963 02943 9800 +110 +001 147075 076 058 002 00

205500 3217N 07632W 6962 02948 9802 +110 +004 148072 073 060 002 00 Low between maxes

205530 3219N 07631W 6963 02951 9809 +110 +006 149071 072 059 004 00

205600 3220N 07629W 6966 02955 9816 +108 +006 149074 074 059 006 00

205630 3221N 07628W 6963 02961 9818 +110 +006 147074 075 057 007 00

205700 3222N 07626W 6963 02966 9823 +110 +005 149074 074 057 007 00

205730 3224N 07625W 6965 02966 9827 +110 +004 150072 074 058 007 00

205800 3225N 07623W 6965 02971 9830 +110 +002 150073 074 059 005 00

205830 3226N 07621W 6965 02976 9840 +106 +001 151079 083 058 005 00

205900 3228N 07620W 6965 02981 9847 +103 -001 151087 089 057 005 00

205930 3229N 07618W 6962 02991 9852 +104 -003 149091 091 056 001 00 Flight Level max

210000 3230N 07617W 6968 02986 9857 +106 -004 149090 091 057 002 00

210030 3231N 07615W 6958 03003 9861 +106 -003 148089 091 056 002 00

210100 3233N 07614W 6961 03002 9870 +102 -001 149089 089 056 002 00 Very slow dropoff after max

210130 3234N 07612W 6967 02999 9874 +103 +002 149086 087 055 002 00

210200 3235N 07611W 6963 03009 9881 +101 +003 149087 088 054 002 00

210230 3236N 07609W 6963 03010 9887 +100 +005 150087 087 054 000 03

210300 3238N 07607W 6967 03010 9893 +099 +006 151087 087 052 003 00

210330 3239N 07606W 6967 03015 9896 +099 +007 151086 088 051 002 00

210400 3240N 07604W 6966 03019 9895 +102 +005 151083 084 051 003 00

210430 3241N 07603W 6964 03026 9901 +100 +004 153085 085 051 003 00

210500 3243N 07601W 6962 03032 9908 +099 +005 155084 085 050 003 00

210530 3244N 07559W 6969 03026 9914 +097 +006 156082 082 051 002 03

210600 3245N 07558W 6964 03037 9918 +095 +006 155081 081 050 001 00

210630 3247N 07556W 6961 03042 9920 +097 +007 155078 080 049 001 00

210700 3248N 07554W 6963 03042 9925 +095 +006 155078 079 050 003 00

210730 3249N 07553W 6959 03052 9930 +095 +005 155077 078 050 001 00

210800 3251N 07551W 6965 03042 9939 +089 +004 155077 077 050 002 00

210830 3252N 07550W 6965 03049 9943 +089 +003 156078 079 049 003 00

210900 3253N 07548W 6965 03052 9947 +090 +001 155076 079 048 005 00

210930 3255N 07546W 6963 03059 9943 +094 -002 156074 075 049 001 00

211000 3256N 07545W 6971 03052 9953 +094 -004 154076 077 048 003 03 End of Recon leg, still 77kt at flight level and still a sub 1000mb extrap, took more then half an hour to get here from center

[Scott747]

Definitely major kudos Dan. That latest recon post was simple and ridiculously good for recon nerds and even those with limited knowledge. Stellar stuff throughout this storm.

[wxmx]

No improvement... steady state

[mdwx]

Would never believe the 950mb just looking at it.. This storm will be bad along mid-atlantic coast DC-PHL.. Very wet this past month.. Even sustained winds of 40 with gusts to 50 with the massive rainfall will cause a lot of damage.

[skierinvermont]

Personally knowing very little about this it makes sense that Irene's large size, and a little bit of sheer are the primary reasons for the low winds. The winds are pretty weak for a 950mb cane are they not? To get the 125-135mph winds that were predicted we'd probably need to be seeing pressures in the 920s. I don't really buy the dry air argument.. canes don't just suck air from hundreds of miles away. Maybe it's having a little bit of an effect.

[wxsmwhrms]

No improvement... steady state

Yeah, I think at this point we are very likely looking at a very large hurricane with 80-85 kt winds at NC landfall as fcst by NHC. Of course, given the very large size and fact that there will also be some support from the outflow channel and upper level divergence from being in the entrance region of the upper jet to the N, it may be very slow to weaken substantially even as it moves N.

[heavy_wx]

Dry air is being advected from the southeast mainland with a tongue of dewpoints below 72 entering the storm's circulation

[thewxmann]

I think the dry air has something to do with it... check out the dewpoints in GA

The 18Z sounding from FFC indicates the mixing out of low-level moisture:

I'm sure that it wouldn't take much of this air to severely affect something as delicate as a TC. Since Irene is so large I can definitely imagine it entraining some dry air that works its way into the core.

[CUmet]

I think the dry air has something to do with it... check out the dewpoints in GA

The 18Z sounding from FFC indicates the mixing out of low-level moisture:

I'm sure that it wouldn't take much of this air to severely affect something as delicate as a TC. Since Irene is so large I can definitely imagine it entraining some dry air that works its way into the core.

There probably is some dry air getting into the TC vortex itself, but the key is that it's not getting there through low-level advection from the environment. What is more likely is that the persistent downdrafts in the downshear-left quadrant are transporting cool, dry air into the low-levels. This, and mid-level advection of dry air are typically the two most effective mechanisms through which dry air impacts the TC.

[dan88]

Still some strong winds aloft, 107kt peak flight level winds in the SE quad.

[OKpowdah]

Still some strong winds aloft, 107kt peak flight level winds in the SE quad.

I guess the issue there is that they're not mixing down as efficiently as normal

[dan88]

Pressure is holding steady at 950mb (which had 4kt at drop), Currently has an East of due north motion.

000

URNT12 KNHC 262254

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 26/22:25:10Z

B. 31 deg 56 min N

077 deg 11 min W [Previous was 077 deg 19 min W]

C. 700 mb 2672 m

D. 62 kt

E. 308 deg 79 nm

F. 122 deg 79 kt

G. 014 deg 70 nm

H. 950 mb

I. 10 C / 3050 m

J. 15 C / 3050 m

K. 9 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF308 2909A IRENE OB 08

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 108 KT SE QUAD 22:47:20Z

MAX FL TEMP 15 C 328 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR

TRIPLE BAND ON RADAR NORTH HALF OF STORM

TEMP ON ITEM INDIA OUTSIDE THE EYE TAKEN ON CROSSTRACK DUE TO RAIN ON INBOUND LEG

MAX SFC WIND SUSPECT SLIGHT RAIN CONTAMINATION

EYE CLOUD FILLED

[battlebrick]

108 kts FL.. supports 97 kts at the surface / 110 mph.

using 90% reduction

[ALhurricane]

Taking a look at the latest recon data SFMR and dropsondes, I can't find anything to support more than 75-80 kt. This is really only supported by a recent dropsonde showing 76kt sfc winds east of the center. Lack of deep convection is really preventing the stronger FL winds from being transported to the sfc.

[dan88]

108 kts FL.. supports 97 kts at the surface / 110 mph.

using 90% reduction

While the rule of thumb in a typical hurricane (especially one that is intensifying with a well organized core), 90% from 700mb is the rule of thumb. However, the SFMR, Dropsondes, and just the simple fact that this does not have an organized inner core display that there is currently significantly less than 90% of the 700mb winds occuring at the surface.

[tombo82685]

looks like an eye is trying to get back together? Still a ton of dry air around though

[Bannor]

[L.B. LaForce]

Also worth mentioning as far as threats go for the coast: mini supercells, which could spawn brief tornadoes. Several couplets already appearing on radar.

[SN_Lover]

 

looks like an eye is trying to get back together? Still a ton of dry air around though

Radar also shows dry air being saturated, perhaps the storm is reorganizing itself. I'm somewhat more optimistic now.

[Thunder Road]

Radar also shows dry air being saturated, perhaps the storm is reorganizing itself. I'm somewhat more optimistic now.

Yeah but it only has ~12 hours before LF. Tonight's dMax is the last chance it has. Maybe it pulses up again like last night? Who knows for sure, but I tend to think Irene stays the way she is.

[Bannor]

A final one - GOES 13 at 23:02 UTC:

[crainjd]

A final one - GOES 13 at 23:02 UTC: 

I enjoy your graphics, keep them coming

[DaculaWeather]

I enjoy your graphics, keep them coming

Go here http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/

[Jalba]

Posted this in the SE topic, but posting it here incase anyone wanted a loop of this.

[VAB1]

I've been looking at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy and right now it's at 40-50kt. Can this be right? The center is only about 60-70 miles SE of there.

[Ed Lizard]

Also worth mentioning as far as threats go for the coast: mini supercells, which could spawn brief tornadoes. Several couplets already appearing on radar.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0658 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 262358Z - 270130Z

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS ROTATING

CELLS MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE

ISSUED BY 0030Z FOR AREAS ACROSS ERN NC AND THE OUTER BANKS.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 STATUTE

MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RAINSHIELD

ALREADY MOVING INLAND ACROSS ERN NC. WITHIN THE RAINBAND...SEVERAL

ROTATING STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS EWD TO ABOUT 100

STATUTE MILES OFFSHORE. THE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE CENTER OF IRENE

IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES

ABOVE 40 KT/ AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER OF GREATER

THAN 2 INCHES. AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES GRADUALLY THIS

EVENING...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ROTATING

STORMS AND TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD

REMAIN VERY FOCUSED IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST

AND IN THE CAPE HATTERAS AREA.

..BROYLES.. 08/26/2011