Major Hurricane Irene live tracking

[Ian]

Intensity has stabilized and structure is improving. Is it me or does it look more annular now?

I've notified The Dude. Check back later. I'd say the answer is no.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

Intensity has stabilized and structure is improving. Is it me or does it look more annular now?

I suggest you read some papers on what an annular hurricane is.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

I was partially joking but yeah, the feeder bands are too large and persistent for it to be annular.

Joke posts such as yours belong here:

[WeatherNC]

Missing the whole SW side of the storm

East coast really did luck out in a way. Had this had better structural integrity, easily could have been a category 4 approaching the outer banks

Looking like a slow strengthening trend is on tap, evidence of an inner max trying to close off in the last couple frames

[WeatherGuide]

I know everybody late last night early this AM was talking about a Eastern jog. Certainly looks from the visible satellite that with the eye trying to redevelop its taken a jog westward now.

[OKpowdah]

So aside from other preposterous suggestions, Irene is looking a little better in terms of a clearer eye and all. We'll see. I don't expect and strengthening, but at least should hold its own

[das]

Looking like a slow strengthening trend is on tap, evidence of an inner max trying to close off in the last couple frames

You do know how those MIMIC animations are made, right? Unless the last frame in that loop says "00:00 away", it and the preceeding frames are not based on actual data.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/description.html

[dan88]

Gaining longitude still, last fix was 077 deg 24 min W, looks to be around 077 deg 29 min W now.

170500 3105N 07727W 6969 02699 9491 +152 +062 123012 014 026 001 03

170530 3104N 07728W 6966 02700 9494 +147 +064 100005 006 025 000 00

170600 3102N 07729W 6967 02699 9493 +150 +067 019003 004 022 001 00

170630 3100N 07730W 6967 02698 9489 +152 +070 325006 006 022 000 00

170700 3059N 07731W 6965 02703 9490 +153 +071 323010 012 025 000 00

170730 3057N 07732W 6973 02696 9490 +154 +073 327015 017 /// /// 03

170800 3058N 07734W 6961 02714 9477 +172 +075 329021 023 022 000 03

170830 3058N 07736W 6968 02709 9482 +171 +076 338025 030 027 001 03

[NortheastPAWx]

I know everybody late last night early this AM was talking about a Eastern jog. Certainly looks from the visible satellite that with the eye trying to redevelop its taken a jog westward now.

I notice that on the end of the microwave loop posted...it appears to be straight north or maybe just a hair west of north (~355)

[dan88]

So second fix in a row with longitude gain, pressure still slowly rising.

000

URNT12 KNHC 261724

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 26/17:06:00Z

B. 31 deg 02 min N

077 deg 29 min W

C. 700 mb 2660 m

D. 68 kt

E. 049 deg 43 nm

F. 137 deg 92 kt

G. 050 deg 84 nm

H. 951 mb

I. 14 C / 3046 m

J. 18 C / 3055 m

K. 8 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF306 2709A IRENE OB 22

MAX FL WIND 105 KT SE QUAD 13:36:40Z

MAX FL TEMP 20 C 251 / 11 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Bannor]

[Wannabehippie]

Storms this big will wobble like a top.

I know everybody late last night early this AM was talking about a Eastern jog. Certainly looks from the visible satellite that with the eye trying to redevelop its taken a jog westward now.

[MJW155]

Hearing that 8 people were hurt in West Palm Beach when a rouge wave hit.

[kpantz]

Looks like the eyewall is showing up on Wilmington, NC radar:

[Don Cherry's Jacket]

You do know how those MIMIC animations are made, right? Unless the last frame in that loop says "00:00 away", it and the preceeding frames are not based on actual data.

http://cimss.ssec.wi...escription.html

So, what's the value of the animation to a met if it isn't based on data? The link says its to show different types of rotation, but it seems like I could program a computer to show any kind of rotation back to an actual photo, and be of no value except entertainment.

[Bryan Wood]

Hearing that 8 people were hurt in West Palm Beach when a rouge wave hit.

Rouge may be a little strong of a word. Video here:http://ulocal.wpbf.com/_Video-of-wave-that-injured-8-at-Boynton-Inlet/video/1625002/63278.html EDIT: This apparently happened yesterday.

[CUmet]

Irene's center is about to encounter the Gulf Stream. I wonder if the convective tower on the north and northwest quads are a response to this. I don't expect any substantial strengthening, but it may level out some over the next 6-12 hours.

[eyewall]

Down to 100 mph.

[yoda]

Down to 100 mph.

Interesting... gained .2 W since 11 AM... probably wobbles. Also now 100 mph

.5 N .2 W since 11am NHC advisory

[BL03]

Fireing up in the middle again...

[Southland Wx]

2 words...dry air.

Hypothesis...the SE/TX drought is going to be what prevents Irene from reaching her full potential.

Soil moisture and WV maps below.

I gotta wonder if the inflow now around Irene is tapping into the dry air, enhanced by drought over the Southeast and Texas. That's impressive dry air on WV imagery, and I have to think this is going to be the biggest limiting factor to Irene the next 24-48 hours. In other words, similar to how Don was probably choked by dry air off Texas, Irene may be feeling a similar impact now and is moving too slowly to really avoid it. Just a thought.

[Bannor]

[Clinch Leatherwood]

2 words...dry air.

Hypothesis...the SE/TX drought is going to be what prevents Irene from reaching her full potential.

Soil moisture and WV maps below.

I gotta wonder if the inflow now around Irene is tapping into the dry air, enhanced by drought over the Southeast and Texas. That's impressive dry air on WV imagery, and I have to think this is going to be the biggest limiting factor to Irene the next 24-48 hours. In other words, similar to how Don was probably choked by dry air off Texas, Irene may be feeling a similar impact now and is moving too slowly to really avoid it. Just a thought.

100% agree, the larger loop tells the story http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20110826&endTime=-1&duration=5

As the dry air nosed into Florida earlier today it also ended up drawn into Irene. I wonder how much it will play a role as her western side draws more and more from the dry land and airmass to the west.

[wxmx]

Ok, who stole the other half?

[k***]

100% agree, the larger loop tells the story http://weather.rap.u...e=-1&duration=5

As the dry air nosed into Florida earlier today it also ended up drawn into Irene. I wonder how much it will play a role as her western side draws more and more from the dry land and airmass to the west.

I have a totally different interpretation of that loop...it looks to me as if the dry air is being pushed west.

[atownwxwatcher]

I have a totally different interpretation of that loop...it looks to me as if the dry air is being pushed west.

That is the way it looks to me as well. Getting pushed to the west and also south as well!

[Southland Wx]

I have a totally different interpretation of that loop...it looks to me as if the dry air is being pushed west.

Follow the wind barbs...where is the source region for the inflow to Irene?

Starts on land in the SE, travels over the Gulf across FL and in. It's clearly taking in dry air. It doesn't mean it won't hold its own or even strengthen again. But in my own opinion, dry air is going to hamper it. It's not manufacturing dry air...there's not much SAL around. I'm reasonably confident it's taking in dry air off a VERY dry landmass.

[k***]

Follow the wind barbs...where is the source region for the inflow to Irene?

I'm not saying that there isn't some dry air around, but I think you are overstating the case especially since it isn't real entraining into the core. The loop clearly shows dry air being modified all over the east coast by the storm itself. Also, those are surface winds...the WV loop/panel above isn't a surface moisture plot, so i'm not sure that it really proves much.

[chris87]

Follow the wind barbs...where is the source region for the inflow to Irene?

Starts on land in the SE, travels over the Gulf across FL and in. It's clearly taking in dry air. It doesn't mean it won't hold its own or even strengthen again. But in my own opinion, dry air is going to hamper it. It's not manufacturing dry air...there's not much SAL around. I'm reasonably confident it's taking in dry air off a VERY dry landmass.

You devalued your point with this image... the main source region is the belt of stronger winds east of Florida....that inflow is playing a much more significant role than the dry continental air...although I'll concede the dry continental air may be playing a small factor

*EDIT* additionally, the mid-level flow (where that dry air actually is) is *NOT* being advected towards Irene.

[Southland Wx]

I'm not saying that there isn't some dry air around, but I think you are overstating the case especially since it isn't real entraining into the core. The loop clearly shows dry air being modified all over the east coast by the storm itself. Also, those are surface winds...the WV loop/panel above isn't a surface moisture plot, so i'm not sure that it really proves much.

You devalued your point with this image... the main source region is the belt of stronger winds east of Florida....that inflow is playing a much more significant role than the dry continental air...although I'll concede the dry continental air may be playing a small factor

*EDIT* additionally, the mid-level flow (where that dry air actually is) is *NOT* being advected towards Irene.

Look at any of the 12z levels and it's not DIRECT flow, but there's almost 0 question that some dry air is being wrapped into this thing by way of the Southeast. I will grant that it is not in the core of the storm yet. But it certainly can't be helping this thing.