das Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Shadow of higher cloudtops? Maybe but I did not see anything that might cast it. Probably you and Ohleary are right though as it is moving with the rising sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Not sure what the peak SFMR data has been, but the FL winds probably support 100 kt more today than they did yesterday. Most recent pass east of the eyewall had several FL winds of 110-115 kt with a peak of 115 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 OK... I have the following GRLevel3 loops going now and I think all of these also have a link to base velocity, echo tops, and storm rain totals. Charleston SC Wilmington NC Morehead NC Sterling VA Dover AFB DE Upton NY Next important Google radar is http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_carolina_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 We'll see. Forecasting eyewall development/cycles is probably the most inexact science in weather forecasting. No one knows how it will play out. This might help in the future - a new tech being trialed for the first time with Irene: http://eon.businesswire.com/news/eon/20110825006176/en/Earth-Networks/WeatherBug/Hurricane-Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 OK... I have the following GRLevel3 loops going now and I think all of these also have a link to base velocity, echo tops, and storm rain totals. Charleston SC Wilmington NC Morehead NC Sterling VA Dover AFB DE Upton NY Next important Google radar is http://www.daculawea...lina_master.php Thanks! the Sterling link above and at your site is not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 2 Irene loops And Visible (5MB loop) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That eye is really struggling to define itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Thanks! the Sterling link above and at your site is not right. Yea boy, didn't get that right! Thanks for pointing that out, can't fix it here at work (firewall crap) but as soon as I get home this afternoon, should be fixed before it's needed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Buoy's off shore from Wilmington are showing 36 mph winds with gust to 45 mph. Keep an eye on this one, it's pretty close to where the hurricane force winds will be. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Last couple fixes have had Irene moving at around 353 degrees which is a bit west of due north. While earlier she was moving more due north. If this continues it could shift the track a bit back to the west in future guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Down to 105mph expected to hold there too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 The satellite symmetry of Irene seems to be improving. Don't know if that increases chances for strengthening, but it makes it look healthier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Down to 105mph expected to hold there too Excellent conditions and it can't even maintain an eyewall, something is going on....another ERC perhaps. The ironic thing is that Isabel made landfall at the same intensity.<br> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Excellent conditions and it can't even maintain an eyewall, something is going on....another ERC perhaps. The water vapor loop is telling, you can see the cyclone taking a hit on the SW quadrant, however there seems to be some improvement on the last few images of the loop. The 00z EC really deepens the TC over the next 24 hours, sure it seems unlikely, but we all know its a very reliable model. http://www.ssd.noaa....2/flash-wv.html Notice the dry air over Florida, I wonder if thats whats causing all of the havoc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terdferguson Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Cloud tops around the center have really warmed over the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Missing the whole SW side of the storm East coast really did luck out in a way. Had this had better structural integrity, easily could have been a category 4 approaching the outer banks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Cloud tops around the center have really warmed over the last few hours. I didn't really how dry it was...now I'm surprised it is still a Cat 2, outflow is saving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Cloud tops around the center have really warmed over the last few hours. We're past the diurnal max, so that's part of the warming. Also, as it move northward, the temperature of the tropopause increases, so cloud tops are naturally going to warm some. Harder to get a solid ring of -80C tops as it works up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Missing the whole SW side of the storm East coast really did luck out in a way. Had this had better structural integrity, easily could have been a category 4 approaching the outer banks The outflow has improved over the past hour on the SW, but I would agree the system overall doesn't look healthy. I really don't know what to make of the Euro now since the NAM seems to be in excellent agreement on its track, so that would in my amateur opinion lead to better confidence in its overall solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Just for reference: Irene, currently: 64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW. 50 KT.......125NE 105SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT.......250NE 200SE 130SW 175NW. 12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 180SW 210NW. Katrina's maximum size, right before landfall: 64 KT.......110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. 50 KT.......140NE 140SE 75SW 75NW. 34 KT.......200NE 200SE 150SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..325NE 250SE 250SW 0NW. Ike's maximum size, right before landfall: 64 KT.......110NE 90SE 55SW 75NW. 50 KT.......160NE 160SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT.......240NE 200SE 150SW 170NW. 12 FT SEAS..425NE 425SE 270SW 150NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Latest recon pass is NE/SW... Pressure up to 949mb, with a max FL wind in the NE quad of 99kts. Edit: 102kt FL wind in the eastern side. URNT12 KNHC 261525 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 26/15:12:50Z B. 30 deg 44 min N 077 deg 24 min W C. 700 mb 2652 m D. 75 kt E. 047 deg 32 nm F. 147 deg 99 kt G. 047 deg 41 nm H. 949 mb I. 13 C / 3049 m J. 17 C / 3046 m K. 7 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF306 2709A IRENE OB 18 MAX FL WIND 105 KT SE QUAD 13:36:40Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Regained a bit of it's longitude, 077 deg 21 min W to 077 deg 24 min W. While not much, shows it surely has not begun losing longitude yet. 77.24 longitude, so it has gone E of due north since last pass? That's in minute format, so it's not 77.24, it's 77 24/60 = 77.4W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This will take a Few MInutes to update but I moved one of the GREarth Loops over Irene for the Weekend http://www.weatherobservatory.com/radar_grearth1.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Regained a bit of it's longitude, 077 deg 21 min W to 077 deg 24 min W. While not much, shows it surely has not begun losing longitude yet. That's in minute format, so it's not 77.44, it's 77 24/60 = 77.4W A visual representation of the plots from both recon missions this morning, with the most recent plot showing the gain in longitude...as noted above by Dan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This really shows how the expansion of the windfield is compensating for the drop in intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 This really shows how the expansion of the windfield is compensating for the drop in intensity Great graphic! Thanks for that... this shows that this is going to be very, very Ike like in NC... definitely the best analog as far as impacts go... though I'm still quite worried that surges will still be worse in Chesapeake/Delaware Bays and NY Harbour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i really doubt the windfield is as symmetric as that graphic depicts it to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 i really doubt the windfield is as symmetric as that graphic depicts it to be Agreed. However, it is definitely still an extensive windfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Intensity has stabilized and structure is improving. Is it me or does it look more annular now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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