Major Hurricane Irene live tracking

[Chicago Storm]

VDM plots from the last three recon missions... It clearly shows a generally northward movement, with the small shifts here and there.

[Normandy]

The aerial swath of 70-80+ kt flight level winds is quite impressive. Not sure I have seen such an expansive windfield with a hurricane since Ike.

[dan88]

I would like to point out that the new outer maximum is enormous right now. the 110kt flight level max in the NE quad was 51 nautical miles away from the location of the center fix and made 18 minutes later (so should be a couple miles larger factoring in the movement of the storm), which if circular would mean a diameter of over 100 nautical miles.

[Normandy]

I would like to point out that the new outer maximum is enormous right now. the 110kt flight level max in the NE quad was 51 nautical miles away from the location of the center fix and made 18 minutes later (so should be a couple miles larger factoring in the movement of the storm), which if circular would mean a diameter of over 100 nautical miles.

Perhaps that explains the insanely low pressure and lack of a tight core. Its so spread right now. Seems like this one could cause historic surges along the east coast.

[ALhurricane]

This storm is very impressive in the fact that it has continued to lower its pressure in spite of the ERCs and the massive wind field. This suggests to me that it will be very stubborn to weaken as it moves further north.

[wxsniss]

Am I reading this correctly...? 113 kts max wind speed = 130 mph?

From last USAF recon:

000URNT15 KNHC 260800AF304 2409A IRENE HDOB 41 20110826075030 3029N 07847W 6968 03065 9938 +103 +091 061057 061 052 002 00075100 3029N 07849W 6966 03067 9941 +101 +089 061053 054 051 001 00075130 3029N 07852W 6970 03066 9945 +100 +090 060050 051 051 002 00075200 3030N 07854W 6965 03074 9953 +095 +093 060048 049 053 002 03075230 3029N 07856W 6962 03076 9956 +092 //// 057047 047 /// /// 05075300 3027N 07857W 6968 03069 9960 +090 //// 054045 046 /// /// 05075330 3026N 07855W 6973 03064 9949 +097 +095 052041 042 052 003 03075400 3025N 07854W 6967 03066 9945 +099 +091 051044 046 052 002 00075430 3024N 07853W 6967 03065 9939 +101 +088 053046 048 053 000 03075500 3023N 07851W 6964 03065 9934 +105 +084 053047 048 052 001 03075530 3022N 07850W 6967 03063 9929 +108 +083 052049 050 052 001 03075600 3021N 07848W 6967 03060 9923 +110 +084 052049 050 051 003 00075630 3020N 07847W 6967 03058 9917 +113 +084 049047 048 051 001 03075700 3019N 07846W 6971 03050 9923 +107 +086 048049 052 051 000 00075730 3017N 07844W 6965 03055 9927 +098 +093 050047 048 051 002 00075800 3016N 07843W 6969 03047 9924 +098 //// 059048 048 051 002 01075830 3015N 07842W 6965 03049 9917 +099 //// 063046 047 051 001 01075900 3014N 07840W 6967 03043 9914 +100 //// 064045 046 050 003 01075930 3013N 07839W 6967 03042 9907 +104 //// 065050 051 050 001 01080000 3012N 07838W 6966 03041 9900 +105 //// 064052 052 049 002 01$;

link:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/URNT15-USAF.shtml?

[dan88]

Am I reading this correctly...? 113 kts max wind speed = 130 mph? From last USAF recon:

That column is for temperature (in C)

For wind, an example

075030 3029N 07847W 6968 03065 9938 +103 +091 061057 061 052 002 00

061057 = 57kt in the final 10 second period during the 30 second interval, and this is from 61 degrees

061 = max 10 second wind during the 30 second period was 61kt

052 = SFMR estimate of 52kt surface winds.

[wxsniss]

That column is for temperature (in C)

For wind, an example

075030 3029N 07847W 6968 03065 9938 +103 +091 061057 061 052 002 00

061057 = 57kt in the final 10 second period during the 30 second interval, and this is from 61 degrees

061 = max 10 second wind during the 30 second period was 61kt

052 = SFMR estimate of 52kt surface winds.

excellent, thanks!

(though you do mean temp in F, i assume)

[dan88]

excellent, thanks!

(though you do mean temp in F, i assume)

No, it's in celsius

[dan88]

000

URNT12 KNHC 260846 CCA

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 26/08:26:40Z

B. 29 deg 15 min N

077 deg 24 min W

C. 700 mb 2607 m

D. 67 kt

E. 304 deg 35 nm

F. 050 deg 80 kt

G. 304 deg 38 nm

H. 943 mb

I. 8 C / 3049 m

J. 19 C / 3053 m

K. 17 C / NA

L. OPEN ESE-S-W

M. C20

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF304 2409A IRENE OB 22 CCA

MAX FL WIND 110 KT NE QUAD 07:00:00Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 84 KT W QUAD 08:42:20Z

MAX FL TEMP 20 C 278 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR

BARELY HALF THE EYEWALL REMAINING. STRONGEST FL WINDS NOW ASSOC WITH SPIRAL BAND

WHICH MAY BECOME NEW EYEWALL.

[phlwx]

Just curious -- how is the ambient pressure on the East Coast now compared to average...Earl was rather strong last year in terms of central pressure (950's) but didn't produce winds stronger than a fart for most everyone outside of the Outer Banks and Cape Cod.

I know there's no major high a la Isabel but are we looking at a situation where pressure gradient will be more "normal" this time around compared to last year?

[dan88]

Dropped it down to 95kt.

[BethesdaWX]

Irene looking better now? Seems to be finishing the ERC.

http://wwwghcc.msfc....lette=spect.pal

[DaculaWeather]

The buoy off of Cape Canaveral recorded 64 kt winds, 30 ft waves and a pressure of 29.00 around 3 am this morning.

[DaculaWeather]

Webcam from Fripp Island in SC http://www.dickens.com/Fripp/fripp.html

[snowfan]

There appears to be some decent convection firing up this morning and unless my eyes are playing with me, it also appears that Irene is getting away from the dry air on the west side.

[SNO]

There appears to be some decent convection firing up this morning and unless my eyes are playing with me, it also appears that Irene is getting away from the dry air on the west side.

Agreed. It looks like some strengthing is possible before landfall.

[Dunkman]

I thought it was interesting to note that extrap. surface pressure are up almost 10mb from last night, but the dropsonde surface pressures have been consistent around 943mb.

[das]

What is this feature? It moved from west to east through the moat and now through the CDO surrounding the eye over the last couple of hours.

http://wwwghcc.msfc....is&numframes=10

[WxUSAF]

What is this feature? It moved from west to east through the moat and now through the CDO surrounding the eye over the last couple of hours.

Shadow of higher cloudtops?

[BethesdaWX]

Doesn't work for me.

My bad on the poor linkage skills.

Anyhow would be surprised if Irene isn't upgraded mack to a Major (115-120mph) later on today, seems to be getting it's act together, clear eye with large eyewall showing up on IR now

http://wwwghcc.msfc....lette=spect.pal

[OKpowdah]

Looks like Irene really doesn't even have an eyewall at this point. Too bad its structure got all screwed up. Could have gained some decent strength over the last 36 hours.

Just a very large wind field now

[Srain]

With that large wind field, comes a very significant surge threat. Irene should not be taken lightly in that regard.

[HKY_WX]

Could be a good or bad scenario w/ the strength. The conditions are still favorable for a 120-130MPH cane sometime today. Not sure if it will ever make it, but if were to have a burst of strengthening tonight, the timing couldn't be worse for NC coastline.

[WishingForWarmWeather]

I am wondering if someone can perhaps give me a bit of info to pass on (or scare the crap out of) to my grandfather. He is in Brick, NJ and is refusing to leave, he wants to stay at home with his cat. Can someone tell me what they think conditions will be? I told him what I know, but I just want to make sure I am right, and it is not any worse than what I told him. Also, if it helps, he is about 7 miles from the ocean.

<div><br></div><div>I am sorry if this is in the wrong thread, I did not know exactly where to ask the question.  If it is moved, whoever does so, can you please inform me of where it will be moved to?  Thank you in advance! </div>

[OKpowdah]

With that large wind field, comes a very significant surge threat. Irene should not be taken lightly in that regard.

Sorry if I came off that way. Not what I was suggesting

[OKpowdah]

Could be a good or bad scenario w/ the strength. The conditions are still favorable for a 120-130MPH cane sometime today. Not sure if it will ever make it, but if were to have a burst of strengthening tonight, the timing couldn't be worse for NC coastline.

Might make it back to 100kt, MAX. Can't strengthen much if you don't have an eyewall

[ohleary]

Shadow of higher cloudtops?

Concur.

[Srain]

Sorry if I came off that way. Not what I was suggesting

No problem, Sam. Many confuse the category with the surge potential of a large cyclone and the real danger involved from that stand point. We have a thread to discuss the surge threat for those interested...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/24579-hurricane-irene-surge-threat/

[HKY_WX]

Might make it back to 100kt, MAX. Can't strengthen much if you don't have an eyewall

We'll see. Forecasting eyewall development/cycles is probably the most inexact science in weather forecasting. No one knows how it will play out.