phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 938.1 latest extrapolated pressure from aircraft... we'll see if the dropsonde has it any lower than 942mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 938.1 latest extrapolated pressure from aircraft... we'll see if the dropsonde has it any lower than 942mb. NOAA or AF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NOAA or AF? AF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 107kt at flight level SE quad 700mb, winds starting to respond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 As I expected earlier, Irene is really starting to ramp up now that her eyewall... and her inner core as a whole... Is getting better defined. Yes her winds spread out a bit as expected post ERC, but recon is now finally showing the winds in the eyewall itself getting stronger. Considering its the diurnal max also... This is perfect timing... We could be looking at a category 4 by 8 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rlsrlj Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 107kt at flight level SE quad 700mb, winds starting to respond. Satellite representation is becoming quite impressive....I wonder if the wind field might be contracting a bit. The core looks a lot better organized compared to it's enitre life so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 000 URNT12 KNHC 260334 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 26/03:20:00Z B. 28 deg 04 min N 077 deg 20 min W C. 700 mb 2588 m D. 66 kt E. 264 deg 8 nm F. 359 deg 83 kt G. 272 deg 11 nm H. 942 mb I. 13 C / 3047 m J. 18 C / 3047 m K. 14 C / NA L. OPEN SW M. C30 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 0.05 nm P. AF304 2409A IRENE OB 06 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 107 KT SE QUAD 03:25:40Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 As I expected earlier, Irene is really starting to ramp up now that her eyewall... and her inner core as a whole... Is getting better defined. Yes her winds spread out a bit as expected post ERC, but recon is now finally showing the winds in the eyewall itself getting stronger. Considering its the diurnal max also... This is perfect timing... We could be looking at a category 4 by 8 AM. Really? Sheesh. Our local mets have been saying with dry air moving in it may weaken by morning. They have been bad about getting the warning out with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Could this be considered a pin hole eye on the latest IR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Could this be considered a pin hole eye on the latest IR? No....IR representation can be misleading wrt eye characterizations...AF plane just measured a 30 mile eye...Certainly not pinhole... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 No....IR representation can be misleading wrt eye characterizations...AF plane just measured a 30 mile eye...Certainly not pinhole... thanks for answering, the "pin hole" appearance was not there until the very last frame on the loop so I thought there was a chance the eye had contracted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That moat surrounding the eye is becoming better defined.... the clock is ticking to see if the winds can come up before the next EWRC commences. I'm still thinking this can get to 110 knots, but it needs to do so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 On the flip side... that outer eyewall is rather potent in its own right... this is 100 miles from the center of circulation and FL wind reports are still 100-110 knots... that's just insane. The NHC is going to have to seriously up their wind radii for the next advisory. EDIT: Looking at the SFMR values though, they are substantially lower (60-65 knots), so perhaps the weaker nature of the outer eyewall is not allowing the typical .9 deduction from 700mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Definitely some restriction of outflow on the southwest quadrant commencing over the last few hours. Irene needs to get moving before that shear begins to impinge on the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Eye can't seem to stay clear for long. Definitely not a stable situation in the core of Irene. Other notes: Tracking near due north right now, and right of the NHC track for the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Definitely some restriction of outflow on the southwest quadrant commencing over the last few hours. Irene needs to get moving before that shear begins to impinge on the core. Actually, shear is not a huge issue, not even for the next 24 hours. SSTs are still marginal. Irene is pretty much fighting with herself at this point. It seems to be primarily limitations from internal structural instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's a few hours old and of lower resolution, but you get the point. Wall-moat-wall, as we head towards another EWRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Actually, shear is not a huge issue, not even for the next 24 hours. SSTs are still marginal. Irene is pretty much fighting with herself at this point. It seems to be primarily limitations from internal structural instability You're right, it's not, but thought I'd mention the first visible effects, as it will gradually become a problem over time, at least until she picks up some speed. This internal struggle is something we saw with Ike, and I guess it's not surprising that she's beginning to resemble it on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 latest minimum extrapolated pressure is 936.4mb. Strongest FL winds were in the outer eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 It's a few hours old and of lower resolution, but you get the point. Wall-moat-wall, as we head towards another EWRC. Really telling image there. The storm is getting stronger, just not from a maximum wind standpoint. These chain ERCs are just increasing the size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Really telling image there. The storm is getting stronger, just not from a maximum wind standpoint. These chain ERCs are just increasing the size. The storm surge potential is going to be massive with this storm, much like Ike back in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 latest minimum extrapolated pressure is 936.4mb. Strongest FL winds were in the outer eyewall. How large is the outer eyewall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Latest VDM showing a 943mb pressure and max FL winds of 109kts, taken in the E quad. Open eyewall is also still an issue. URNT12 KNHC 260516 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 26/05:05:00Z B. 28 deg 28 min N 077 deg 18 min W C. 700 mb 2578 m D. 87 kt E. 039 deg 12 nm F. 142 deg 106 kt G. 046 deg 39 nm H. 943 mb I. 9 C / 3046 m J. 18 C / 3043 m K. 17 C / NA L. OPEN S - W M. C24 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF304 2409A IRENE OB 12 MAX FL WIND 109 KT E QUAD 04:21:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Really telling image there. The storm is getting stronger, just not from a maximum wind standpoint. These chain ERCs are just increasing the size. Bingo... the increase in the outer eyewall winds tells the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Bingo... the increase in the outer eyewall winds tells the story. Agreed-- conservation of angular momentum would dictate that an expanding wind field would negate the idea of much strengthening in the peak winds just outside the core. It will mean more damage further away from the storm on both sides a la 1944 and Ike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Agreed-- conservation of angular momentum would dictate that an expanding wind field would negate the idea of much strengthening in the peak winds just outside the core. It will mean more damage further away from the storm on both sides a la 1944 and Ike. Yes, it also substantially increases the storm surge threat having such a large radius of maximum winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Yes, it also substantially increases the storm surge threat having such a large radius of maximum winds. Yes, and with the topography around here, I shudder to think this could be as bad as Donna or December 1992-- both of which inundated the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 New Real-Time IR reveals rapidly expanding CDO and a new ERC. http://wwwghcc.msfc....lette=spect.pal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Latest recon pass showing a 942mb pressure and max FL winds of 110kts in the NE quad. Eyewall is still open too. URNT12 KNHC 260708 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 26/06:42:20Z B. 28 deg 50 min N 077 deg 23 min W C. 700 mb 2588 m D. 75 kt E. 114 deg 13 nm F. 210 deg 106 kt G. 127 deg 49 nm H. 942 mb I. 8 C / 3057 m J. 19 C / 3052 m K. 17 C / NA L. OPEN S - WNW M. C20 N. 12345 / 07 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF304 2409A IRENE OB 18 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 110 KT NE QUAD 07:00:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Looking at Recon currently. Outer eyewall is starting to take over, SE quad wind max was associated with the developing outer eye with 106kt. After that, heading towards the center winds remain fairly steady between 89-95kt, with no real observable max in the inner eyewall before the center calm. There was a drop which spashed in the inner East eyewall with 95kt at the surface. Irene has also gained some of it's lost lattitude back, getting to 077 deg 23 min W from 077 deg 18 min W. The NE quad also experienced similar behavior, the outer wind max was 110kt, and within that it dropped off to 90kt + or - a couple knots until the center calm with no real max with the inner eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.