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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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As I expected earlier, Irene is really starting to ramp up now that her eyewall... and her inner core as a whole... Is getting better defined. Yes her winds spread out a bit as expected post ERC, but recon is now finally showing the winds in the eyewall itself getting stronger.

Considering its the diurnal max also... This is perfect timing... We could be looking at a category 4 by 8 AM.

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107kt at flight level SE quad 700mb, winds starting to respond.

Satellite representation is becoming quite impressive....I wonder if the wind field might be contracting a bit. The core looks a lot better organized compared to it's enitre life so far.

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000

URNT12 KNHC 260334

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 26/03:20:00Z

B. 28 deg 04 min N

077 deg 20 min W

C. 700 mb 2588 m

D. 66 kt

E. 264 deg 8 nm

F. 359 deg 83 kt

G. 272 deg 11 nm

H. 942 mb

I. 13 C / 3047 m

J. 18 C / 3047 m

K. 14 C / NA

L. OPEN SW

M. C30

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 0.05 nm

P. AF304 2409A IRENE OB 06

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 107 KT SE QUAD 03:25:40Z

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As I expected earlier, Irene is really starting to ramp up now that her eyewall... and her inner core as a whole... Is getting better defined. Yes her winds spread out a bit as expected post ERC, but recon is now finally showing the winds in the eyewall itself getting stronger.

Considering its the diurnal max also... This is perfect timing... We could be looking at a category 4 by 8 AM.

Really? Sheesh. Our local mets have been saying with dry air moving in it may weaken by morning. They have been bad about getting the warning out with this one.

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On the flip side... that outer eyewall is rather potent in its own right... this is 100 miles from the center of circulation and FL wind reports are still 100-110 knots... that's just insane. The NHC is going to have to seriously up their wind radii for the next advisory.

jpu6vb.png

EDIT: Looking at the SFMR values though, they are substantially lower (60-65 knots), so perhaps the weaker nature of the outer eyewall is not allowing the typical .9 deduction from 700mb.

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Definitely some restriction of outflow on the southwest quadrant commencing over the last few hours. Irene needs to get moving before that shear begins to impinge on the core.

Actually, shear is not a huge issue, not even for the next 24 hours. SSTs are still marginal. Irene is pretty much fighting with herself at this point. It seems to be primarily limitations from internal structural instability

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Actually, shear is not a huge issue, not even for the next 24 hours. SSTs are still marginal. Irene is pretty much fighting with herself at this point. It seems to be primarily limitations from internal structural instability

You're right, it's not, but thought I'd mention the first visible effects, as it will gradually become a problem over time, at least until she picks up some speed.

This internal struggle is something we saw with Ike, and I guess it's not surprising that she's beginning to resemble it on satellite.

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Latest VDM showing a 943mb pressure and max FL winds of 109kts, taken in the E quad. Open eyewall is also still an issue.

URNT12 KNHC 260516

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 26/05:05:00Z

B. 28 deg 28 min N

077 deg 18 min W

C. 700 mb 2578 m

D. 87 kt

E. 039 deg 12 nm

F. 142 deg 106 kt

G. 046 deg 39 nm

H. 943 mb

I. 9 C / 3046 m

J. 18 C / 3043 m

K. 17 C / NA

L. OPEN S - W

M. C24

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF304 2409A IRENE OB 12

MAX FL WIND 109 KT E QUAD 04:21:30Z

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Bingo... the increase in the outer eyewall winds tells the story.

Agreed-- conservation of angular momentum would dictate that an expanding wind field would negate the idea of much strengthening in the peak winds just outside the core. It will mean more damage further away from the storm on both sides a la 1944 and Ike.

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Agreed-- conservation of angular momentum would dictate that an expanding wind field would negate the idea of much strengthening in the peak winds just outside the core. It will mean more damage further away from the storm on both sides a la 1944 and Ike.

Yes, it also substantially increases the storm surge threat having such a large radius of maximum winds.

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Yes, it also substantially increases the storm surge threat having such a large radius of maximum winds.

Yes, and with the topography around here, I shudder to think this could be as bad as Donna or December 1992-- both of which inundated the city.

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Latest recon pass showing a 942mb pressure and max FL winds of 110kts in the NE quad. Eyewall is still open too.

URNT12 KNHC 260708

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 26/06:42:20Z

B. 28 deg 50 min N

077 deg 23 min W

C. 700 mb 2588 m

D. 75 kt

E. 114 deg 13 nm

F. 210 deg 106 kt

G. 127 deg 49 nm

H. 942 mb

I. 8 C / 3057 m

J. 19 C / 3052 m

K. 17 C / NA

L. OPEN S - WNW

M. C20

N. 12345 / 07

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF304 2409A IRENE OB 18

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 110 KT NE QUAD 07:00:00Z

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Looking at Recon currently. Outer eyewall is starting to take over, SE quad wind max was associated with the developing outer eye with 106kt. After that, heading towards the center winds remain fairly steady between 89-95kt, with no real observable max in the inner eyewall before the center calm. There was a drop which spashed in the inner East eyewall with 95kt at the surface. Irene has also gained some of it's lost lattitude back, getting to 077 deg 23 min W from 077 deg 18 min W.

The NE quad also experienced similar behavior, the outer wind max was 110kt, and within that it dropped off to 90kt + or - a couple knots until the center calm with no real max with the inner eyewall.

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