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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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You do realize what happens with "only" storm force winds in areas that have lots of trees with their leaves and saturated soils, right?

I agree that the wind for this event in the Northeast is not going to be Cat 2 or greater, but you are really being obtuse about what happens in the Northeast with these storms.

Exactly. Hurricane Floyd hit Wilmington as a Cat 2 and was a huge rain event. I'm 110 miles west of Wilmington and the morning after it looked like a giant tornado had gone through and the whole city was without power, just from TS winds. It took weeks to clear the trees.

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You do realize what happens with "only" storm force winds in areas that have lots of trees with their leaves and saturated soils, right?

I agree that the wind for this event in the Northeast is not going to be Cat 2 or greater, but you are really being obtuse about what happens in the Northeast with these storms.

BTW, the eye is starting to clear again.....Can the poster give us an example of what he/she looks for when concern should be raised?? Surge, waves, swells, astronomical high tide? Give me a break!

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You do realize what happens with "only" storm force winds in areas that have lots of trees with their leaves and saturated soils, right?

I agree that the wind for this event in the Northeast is not going to be Cat 2 or greater, but you are really being obtuse about what happens in the Northeast with these storms.

It's funny, I was in Opal, Ivan, and Dennis as well, yet my observations are worlds away from his.

That said... Weather "Expert"... if you were in Pensacolaish for Opal, I'm sure you must have been there for Erin as well. Erin was a small borderline Cat 1/2... and Pensacola had not seen winds that strong for such a long period of time... really since the 1926 hurricane... and look what happened. Trees down everywhere, major damage to many, many buildings... sure the surge wasn't awesome (it did do some minor flooding damage), but the wind damage was ridiculous simply due to the fact that there were many, many old trees, etc. that had not been under those types of conditions.

Now consider how small Pensacola is versus the megalopolis along the East Coast... and consider how much bigger in size than Erin Irene is going to be. The damage potential in this circumstance is insane.

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You do realize what happens with "only" storm force winds in areas that have lots of trees with their leaves and saturated soils, right?

I agree that the wind for this event in the Northeast is not going to be Cat 2 or greater, but you are really being obtuse about what happens in the Northeast with these storms.

I agree with you 100%. Not a wind event. Rather a rain event.. That is if it even makes it to NYC/Boston. Personally I think this is going much farther West inland and not effect the densely populated coastal areas.

Hard to believe the initial forecasts were Florida.

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In addition, the poster needs to read up on Hurricane Ike to see just how much damage a very large (of which Irene should be) non-major hurricane can cause along a coast.

Not to mention inland - Ike was still at hurricane strength when it hit me, in Ohio...2.6 million power outages, and over $550 million in damage in Ohio alone.

"hurricane" and "Ohio" are two words you do not want to see in the same sentence. :)

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I think what we might be discovering here is that instead of the storm growing stronger, its just growing larger. This is a common problem with storms that start undergoing EWRC but then seem to have difficulty completing it. While Irene still has some time to get a stable eyewall, it seems that is also still dealing with 15-20 knots of wind shear. This might make it hard for it to ever get a closed eyewall again.

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Anyone have any idea when this ERC may complete itself? Cloud tops continue to warm on IR.

I have a feeling that even the limited interaction with some of the larger islands of the Bahamas, like Andros Island, might have been working to limit outflow on the SW/ern side. I posted in I believe the New England thread that I have no doubt this has the potential to be a Cat 4 at 11 am tomorrow, which gives it 12 hours to regroup and 12 hours for its winds to catch up to the deepening pressure. With these large storms, it takes a lot longer for wind speeds to catch up to the intensity of the central SLP, as with Alex. The core is starting to look a little better on vis, and while cloud tops are warming, I think we'll start seeing signs of reorganizing within four or five hours.

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Exactly. Hurricane Floyd hit Wilmington as a Cat 2 and was a huge rain event. I'm 110 miles west of Wilmington and the morning after it looked like a giant tornado had gone through and the whole city was without power, just from TS winds. It took weeks to clear the trees.

Actually, with Floyd, I don't recall getting all that much wind, but we got close to 12 inches of rain.

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I agree with you 100%. Not a wind event. Rather a rain event.. That is if it even makes it to NYC/Boston. Personally I think this is going much farther West inland and not effect the densely populated coastal areas.

Hard to believe the initial forecasts were Florida.

SE VA is pretty densely populated, an inland track would also likely cause intense surge right up the Chesapeake/Potomac by the time it got to MD. This is forecast to be 100 mph right off VA beach so I don't know how you can say not a wind event...

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FYI, with today's morning storm KPHL just set its all time record for wettest month.

Can one of the mets talk a little about the possible PRE event and where that looks to set up, if at all? Also, in the morning AFD, Mt. Holly talked about the presence of the 250MB jet improving outflow and increasing intensity, can someone talk about the mechanics of that? I don't get why that wouldn't shear it out rather than intensify it.

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NHC not forecasting Cat 4 anymore. Just up to Cat 3 125 mph.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.5N 77.5WMAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.64 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.34 KT...250NE 200SE 100SW 140NW.FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 29.5N 77.8WMAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.64 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.34 KT...250NE 200SE 100SW 140NW.FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 31.4N 77.5WMAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.64 KT... 60NE 60SE 25SW 50NW.50 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.34 KT...250NE 200SE 100SW 140NW.FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 33.3N 77.1WMAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.34 KT...270NE 240SE 125SW 150NW.FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 37.8N 75.3WMAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.34 KT...270NE 250SE 125SW 150NW.EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NMON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAYOUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 45.0N 71.5W...INLANDMAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 54.0N 64.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROPMAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

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Pertinent information from the 1100 AM discussion:

CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING INDICATE

THAT THE EXPECTED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN HAS OCCURRED. A

NORTHWARD TURN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS IRENE MOVES

THROUGH A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH

MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO THEN TURN

IRENE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH

IS FORECAST TO BYPASS IRENE...LEAVING THE HURRICANE IN DEEP

SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND

A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP

THE HURRICANE VERY NEAR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE

GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD ON THIS CYCLE...AND

THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED WEST AS WELL. THE NEW

FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...AND IS A LITTLE RIGHT OF

THE TVCA CONSENSUS. SINCE IRENE IS SUCH A LARGE TROPICAL

CYCLONE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE UNITED STATES

EAST COAST REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK IT TAKES.

THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING

DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MAIN INFLUENCING FACTOR DURING THE

SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE EYEWALL CYCLES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO

PREDICT. AFTER 48 HOURS...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO

INCREASE WHICH WILL LIKELY START WEAKENING PROCESS. HOWEVER...

SINCE IRENE HAS SUCH A LARGE AND INTENSE CIRCULATION...IT

WILL PROBABLY BE RATHER SLOW TO WEAKEN.

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I agree with you 100%. Not a wind event. Rather a rain event.. That is if it even makes it to NYC/Boston. Personally I think this is going much farther West inland and not effect the densely populated coastal areas.

Hard to believe the initial forecasts were Florida.

Lets pretend the 6Z GFS actually resolves this pretty well. Do you think 25 meter/second winds are trivial?

GFSSF_NE2011082506F090.gif

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I agree with you 100%. Not a wind event. Rather a rain event.. That is if it even makes it to NYC/Boston. Personally I think this is going much farther West inland and not effect the densely populated coastal areas.

Hard to believe the initial forecasts were Florida.

Can you please elaborate on what lead you to this decision?

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I have a feeling that even the limited interaction with some of the larger islands of the Bahamas, like Andros Island, might have been working to limit outflow on the SW/ern side. I posted in I believe the New England thread that I have no doubt this has the potential to be a Cat 4 at 11 am tomorrow, which gives it 12 hours to regroup and 12 hours for its winds to catch up to the deepening pressure. With these large storms, it takes a lot longer for wind speeds to catch up to the intensity of the central SLP, as with Alex. The core is starting to look a little better on vis, and while cloud tops are warming, I think we'll start seeing signs of reorganizing within four or five hours.

That makes absolutely no sense. These Bahamian Islands are flatter than pancakes... especially Andros Island which is extremely flat and filled with many wetland areas.

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Exactly. Hurricane Floyd hit Wilmington as a Cat 2 and was a huge rain event. I'm 110 miles west of Wilmington and the morning after it looked like a giant tornado had gone through and the whole city was without power, just from TS winds. It took weeks to clear the trees.

Thats something we are dealing with here, its been 11 years since Floyd which was our last real cane here ( Isabel was minimal in the central and southern coastal plains ) and we have been in a drought more or less off and on since 2007ish. So we have lots of drought weakened trees, I think the treefall from this event assuming she hits moving NNE from Emerald Isle is going to be HUGE east of I95 at least in NC.

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FYI, with today's morning storm KPHL just set its all time record for wettest month.

Can one of the mets talk a little about the possible PRE event and where that looks to set up, if at all? Also, in the morning AFD, Mt. Holly talked about the presence of the 250MB jet improving outflow and increasing intensity, can someone talk about the mechanics of that? I don't get why that wouldn't shear it out rather than intensify it.

If the jet is more alongside the hurricane and not over it, it aids outflow out of the top. Hurricanes only strengthen when they can suck more air in, make that air rise and lower surface pressure. All that air has to evacuate out the top.

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I can definitely see an eye forming again. Take a look at the end of the Water Vapor and Visible satellite images:

http://www.ssd.noaa....2/flash-wv.html

http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-vis.html

Could be the start of a new strengthening cycle. This could get very scary quick if this ramps up to cat 4 tonight/Friday and heads over the Gulf Stream.

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If the jet is more alongside the hurricane and not over it, it aids outflow out of the top. Hurricanes only strengthen when they can suck more air in, make that air rise and lower surface pressure. All that air has to evacuate out the top.

I believe Charley is a good example of this... if I remember correctly, many products showed shear increasing over Charley as it approached Florida a day or two prior, when in actuality, it was just the jet helping to improve the outflow of the storm.

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Are those tropical points on the NHC satelite loops of any use?

It looks based on those points, that Irene is trending further east than progged?

Looking for any sign it is going east.. since I do not want this 'cane coming over my house!

Understand the a cyclone does not move in a straight line. The circulation ceter will tend to 'stair step' along a 335 degree path until it begins the N turn.

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I have a feeling that even the limited interaction with some of the larger islands of the Bahamas, like Andros Island, might have been working to limit outflow on the SW/ern side.

I'm gonna guess you've never been to the Bahamas. Those islands aren't like the DR or Cuba. The Bahamian islands are basically coral reefs and mangroves sticking 10' out of the water ((although there is a ""mountain" on Cat that is a whopping 200' high...about as big as Mt. Trashmore on Stock Island).

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In case you didn't see these links on the Model Discussion thread, these are all GRLevel3 loops for the following cities, I hope to get base velocity, echo tops, and storm rain totals loops going for all of those sites today, those are already working for Miami. I'll be working my way up the coast with additional radar sites as the storm moves north.

Miami FL Composite

Melbourne FL Composite

Jacksonville FL Composite

Charleston SC Composite

Wilmington NC Composite

Morehead City NC Composite

I also have the following Google Map radars available, best viewed using Firefox, Chrome, or Safari, IE has personal issues.

State of Florida

Carolina Region

Mid-Atlantic Region

New England Region

I also have a new US mosiac that has the ground clutter removed, just zoom in to the region you want to see http://www.daculawea...e_us_master.php

Hope you find these helpful!

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On that current projected path Ocean City Maryland is in deep trouble. The western shore of the Chesapeake is looking at some serious flooding issues as well. This is becoming very serious at this point.

Low lying too as it is. Hampton and Poquoson, VA flood during run of the mill summer t-storms and were devastated from surge during Isabel, which came through well inland. I could see chunks of the Virginia Lower Peninsula on the bay side being permanently altered on this path.

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