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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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Latest VDM no longer shows a double eyewall structure...

URNT12 KWBC 251248

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 25/1219Z

B. 25 DEG 26 MIN N

76 DEG 37 MIN W

C. NA

D. 52 KT

E. 235 DEG 62 NM

F. 338 DEG 75 KT

G. 247 DEG 29 NM

H. 951 MB

I. 14 C/2458 M

J. 20 C/2450 M

K. 18 C/NA

L. OPEN SW

M. C15

N. 12345/NA

O. 1/1 NM

P. NOAA3 2009A IRENE OB 20

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 109kts NE QUAD 1225Z

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It is also entirely possible, even likely, that this is temporary fluctuation. Doesn't mean it's about to die.

I've given up trying to predict the intensity of these things in that region from the Bahamas to the Carolinas. We' ve seen many storms over the years unexpectedly strengthen or weaken rapidly in that corridor when the environment strongly suggested the opposite should be occurring or that a steady state should have been maintained.

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Yeah, but the ERC is causing it to become huge... Hurricane force winds are extending 90 nmi from the center of the storm

IMO, the new eye will clear out sometime today, and have one last (low latitude) chance to contract (during Dmax) and intensify...(I assume this is the NHC's thought about potential run to Cat 4).... Irene just has a blanket over her for a bit longer I suspect.

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On satellite it looks like the SW quadrant is not looking as good. Shear??

Was just looking at that...shear is not that obvious to me right now. It does look like the outflow channels to the west of the center are expanding southward though. It will be very interesting to watch this today.

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Was just looking at that...shear is not that obvious to me right now. It does look like the outflow channels to the west of the center are expanding southward though. It will be very interesting to watch this today.

There has been a bit of dry air to the W, but that is quickly abating.

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There has been a bit of dry air to the W, but that is quickly abating.

With that abating, do you still see Irene reaching Cat 4 after the ERC is complete? I have my doubts about it because of the sheer size of the storm and the fact that the highest winds are being found not close to the eyewall but out from it tens of miles. Also looks to be wobbling west some.

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IKE (Integrated Kinetic Energy) numbers for Irene as of 13z are 88 kJ from TS force winds and 19 kJ from hurricane force winds. Its Destructive Potential Rating (on a scale of 0-6) is 2.8 for Wind and 4.7 for Surge.

By comparison, 12 hours before landfall Hurricane Ike had 129 kJ from TS force winds and 39 kJ from hurricane force winds, with a Destructive Potential Rating of 3.2 for Wind and 5.1 for Surge.

Link to view detailed wind maps of Irene including IKE and Destructive Potential Rating:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/irene2011/wind.html

post-88-0-02215000-1314283018.jpg

Sorry if I missed this- but does anybody have the IKE numbers for Irene?

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LOL @ all these doom and gloom forecasts. By the time it gets to NYC its going to be about 50 mph. Watching Stephanie Abrams on TWC is laughable. Once it interacts with NC the water will be way too cool to get its act back together. The biggest damage in the northeast will be fallen trees and power outages due to the saturated grounds.

This is NOT the big one.

Are you kidding? The surge potential for this storm is huge even if the wind field dies off prior to landfall in the Northeast. The flood threat from Philly to North Jersey is immense, especially considering the thunderstorms today. The potential for insured and uninsured losses from this storm is in the billions of dollars.

But don't worry, no big deal.

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Are you kidding? The surge potential for this storm is huge even if the wind field dies off prior to landfall in the Northeast. The flood threat from Philly to North Jersey is immense, especially considering the thunderstorms today. The potential for insured and uninsured losses from this storm is in the billions of dollars.

But don't worry, no big deal.

I'd add to that that this is not mid-late September or October when most major storms have taken similar paths... the waters are much warmer, and this is looking to follow the Gulf Stream fairly well.

In addition, the poster needs to read up on Hurricane Ike to see just how much damage a very large (of which Irene should be) non-major hurricane can cause along a coast.

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Are you kidding? The surge potential for this storm is huge even if the wind field dies off prior to landfall in the Northeast. The flood threat from Philly to North Jersey is immense, especially considering the thunderstorms today. The potential for insured and uninsured losses from this storm is in the billions of dollars.

But don't worry, no big deal.

Also, it doesn't get more intense than this in the Northeast. You can't expect a Category 3 or 4 to make landfall north of 30N.

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In addition, the poster needs to read up on Hurricane Ike to see just how much damage a very large (of which Irene should be) non-major hurricane can cause along a coast.

This.

Although one difference is this will be weakening on the way in rather than strengthening on the way in as Ike was. Ike may have pushed cat 4 had it had 12 hours more over water.

This looks big, but I'm sure you will have some disaster scenarios tossed out there that are unrealistic too.

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This.

Although one difference is this will be weakening on the way in rather than strengthening on the way in as Ike was. Ike may have pushed cat 4 had it had 12 hours more over water.

True... though with respect to storm surge, I'm not sure that will make as much of a difference... and storm surge is really the biggest threat with this system in Chesapeake and Delaware Bays as well as around NYC.

Both Katrina and Ivan, weakening before landfall, were able to cause storm surges more related to their intensities ~48 hours prior to landfall.

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Tropical storm Doria in late August of 1971 took a very similar track to Emily and caused record rainfall in New Jersey in places like Trenton and Newark.

It also spawned several damaging tornados, which coastal scrapers have been known to do. Irene is to be taken lightly at your peril.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Doria_(1971)

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I have been on the ground for the following Hurricanes:

IVAN

DENNIS

WILMA

OPAL

KATRINA (FL side)

ERNESTO (TS, another hyped event)

So this is not my first rodeo. This thing is already becoming asymetrical and I suggest this will barely be a Cat 2 when it reaches NC and maybe a Cat 1. The friction of land and the cooler waters is going to doom Irene. Now, if you want to talk about a rain event for the Northeast, yes, it will be severe. Wind event? Nope. Not gonna happen.

You do realize what happens with "only" storm force winds in areas that have lots of trees with their leaves and saturated soils, right?

I agree that the wind for this event in the Northeast is not going to be Cat 2 or greater, but you are really being obtuse about what happens in the Northeast with these storms.

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