WeatherEmperor Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 06Z GFS shows an axis of 9+" from eastern NC across the Delmarva, all of NJ and across the NYC metro up into VT. Do you have a link to this precip map? I can never find it. Thanks in advance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Do you have a link to this precip map? I can never find it. Thanks in advance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Latest VDM no longer shows a double eyewall structure... URNT12 KWBC 251248 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 25/1219Z B. 25 DEG 26 MIN N 76 DEG 37 MIN W C. NA D. 52 KT E. 235 DEG 62 NM F. 338 DEG 75 KT G. 247 DEG 29 NM H. 951 MB I. 14 C/2458 M J. 20 C/2450 M K. 18 C/NA L. OPEN SW M. C15 N. 12345/NA O. 1/1 NM P. NOAA3 2009A IRENE OB 20 MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 109kts NE QUAD 1225Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Irene is loosing all its real deep convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yeah, but the ERC is causing it to become huge... Hurricane force winds are extending 90 nmi from the center of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Irene is loosing all its real deep convection It is also entirely possible, even likely, that this is temporary fluctuation. Doesn't mean it's about to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 siap & may need to be moved. Here is a link to some live cams from various Broward county beaches. Looks like some nasty squalls just offshore. http://www.sunny.org/webcam/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 It is also entirely possible, even likely, that this is temporary fluctuation. Doesn't mean it's about to die. I've given up trying to predict the intensity of these things in that region from the Bahamas to the Carolinas. We' ve seen many storms over the years unexpectedly strengthen or weaken rapidly in that corridor when the environment strongly suggested the opposite should be occurring or that a steady state should have been maintained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Yeah, but the ERC is causing it to become huge... Hurricane force winds are extending 90 nmi from the center of the storm IMO, the new eye will clear out sometime today, and have one last (low latitude) chance to contract (during Dmax) and intensify...(I assume this is the NHC's thought about potential run to Cat 4).... Irene just has a blanket over her for a bit longer I suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 siap & may need to be moved. Here is a link to some live cams from various Broward county beaches. Looks like some nasty squalls just offshore. http://www.sunny.org/webcam/ We've had squally weather on and off the last few hours. Nothing major. Gusty winds maybe 30-35 mph or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looking at a high speed GRLevel3 loop, it looks like Irene has a lot of westerly component in her movement right now. Looks like it's moved about 50 miles west since 8:12 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Sorry if I missed this- but does anybody have the IKE numbers for Irene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On satellite it looks like the SW quadrant is not looking as good. Shear?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rlsrlj Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 On satellite it looks like the SW quadrant is not looking as good. Shear?? Was just looking at that...shear is not that obvious to me right now. It does look like the outflow channels to the west of the center are expanding southward though. It will be very interesting to watch this today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Was just looking at that...shear is not that obvious to me right now. It does look like the outflow channels to the west of the center are expanding southward though. It will be very interesting to watch this today. There has been a bit of dry air to the W, but that is quickly abating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Sorry if I missed this- but does anybody have the IKE numbers for Irene? http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=mpswtcke&storm_identifier=AL092011&starting_image=2011AL09_MPSWTCKE_201108210000.GIF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 There has been a bit of dry air to the W, but that is quickly abating. With that abating, do you still see Irene reaching Cat 4 after the ERC is complete? I have my doubts about it because of the sheer size of the storm and the fact that the highest winds are being found not close to the eyewall but out from it tens of miles. Also looks to be wobbling west some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Haven't seen this before http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/quicklook/data/IRENE.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Dare County, NC just issued evacuation orders for residents. Probably the beginning of several along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 IKE (Integrated Kinetic Energy) numbers for Irene as of 13z are 88 kJ from TS force winds and 19 kJ from hurricane force winds. Its Destructive Potential Rating (on a scale of 0-6) is 2.8 for Wind and 4.7 for Surge. By comparison, 12 hours before landfall Hurricane Ike had 129 kJ from TS force winds and 39 kJ from hurricane force winds, with a Destructive Potential Rating of 3.2 for Wind and 5.1 for Surge. Link to view detailed wind maps of Irene including IKE and Destructive Potential Rating: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/irene2011/wind.html Sorry if I missed this- but does anybody have the IKE numbers for Irene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 LOL @ all these doom and gloom forecasts. By the time it gets to NYC its going to be about 50 mph. Watching Stephanie Abrams on TWC is laughable. Once it interacts with NC the water will be way too cool to get its act back together. The biggest damage in the northeast will be fallen trees and power outages due to the saturated grounds. This is NOT the big one. Are you kidding? The surge potential for this storm is huge even if the wind field dies off prior to landfall in the Northeast. The flood threat from Philly to North Jersey is immense, especially considering the thunderstorms today. The potential for insured and uninsured losses from this storm is in the billions of dollars. But don't worry, no big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Are you kidding? The surge potential for this storm is huge even if the wind field dies off prior to landfall in the Northeast. The flood threat from Philly to North Jersey is immense, especially considering the thunderstorms today. The potential for insured and uninsured losses from this storm is in the billions of dollars. But don't worry, no big deal. I'd add to that that this is not mid-late September or October when most major storms have taken similar paths... the waters are much warmer, and this is looking to follow the Gulf Stream fairly well. In addition, the poster needs to read up on Hurricane Ike to see just how much damage a very large (of which Irene should be) non-major hurricane can cause along a coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Are you kidding? The surge potential for this storm is huge even if the wind field dies off prior to landfall in the Northeast. The flood threat from Philly to North Jersey is immense, especially considering the thunderstorms today. The potential for insured and uninsured losses from this storm is in the billions of dollars. But don't worry, no big deal. Also, it doesn't get more intense than this in the Northeast. You can't expect a Category 3 or 4 to make landfall north of 30N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 In addition, the poster needs to read up on Hurricane Ike to see just how much damage a very large (of which Irene should be) non-major hurricane can cause along a coast. This. Although one difference is this will be weakening on the way in rather than strengthening on the way in as Ike was. Ike may have pushed cat 4 had it had 12 hours more over water. This looks big, but I'm sure you will have some disaster scenarios tossed out there that are unrealistic too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 This. Although one difference is this will be weakening on the way in rather than strengthening on the way in as Ike was. Ike may have pushed cat 4 had it had 12 hours more over water. True... though with respect to storm surge, I'm not sure that will make as much of a difference... and storm surge is really the biggest threat with this system in Chesapeake and Delaware Bays as well as around NYC. Both Katrina and Ivan, weakening before landfall, were able to cause storm surges more related to their intensities ~48 hours prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 Also, it doesn't get more intense than this in the Northeast. You can't expect a Category 3 or 4 to make landfall north of 30N. Check the latitude of, say, Charleston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Also, it doesn't get more intense than this in the Northeast. You can't expect a Category 3 or 4 to make landfall north of 30N. Hugo and Hazel were 4's. There have been a ton of 3's north of 30. Parts of the Gulf coast are north of 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Check the latitude of, say, Charleston. Hence, 3 or 4 is the maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
varicweather Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Tropical storm Doria in late August of 1971 took a very similar track to Emily and caused record rainfall in New Jersey in places like Trenton and Newark. It also spawned several damaging tornados, which coastal scrapers have been known to do. Irene is to be taken lightly at your peril. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Doria_(1971) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 I have been on the ground for the following Hurricanes: IVAN DENNIS WILMA OPAL KATRINA (FL side) ERNESTO (TS, another hyped event) So this is not my first rodeo. This thing is already becoming asymetrical and I suggest this will barely be a Cat 2 when it reaches NC and maybe a Cat 1. The friction of land and the cooler waters is going to doom Irene. Now, if you want to talk about a rain event for the Northeast, yes, it will be severe. Wind event? Nope. Not gonna happen. You do realize what happens with "only" storm force winds in areas that have lots of trees with their leaves and saturated soils, right? I agree that the wind for this event in the Northeast is not going to be Cat 2 or greater, but you are really being obtuse about what happens in the Northeast with these storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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