dan88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Another pass NW quad, outer eyewall wind max is 90kt, followed a very sharp drop to 63kt. Winds then hold steady from there between 61-67kt, until the inner eyewall center calm, however there is no real recognizable inner eyewall wind max, extrap 951.2mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Wow, Irene is going to have a huge eye once the ERC is done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 03:19Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302) Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011 Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 17 Observation Number: 16 A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 3:07:20Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 23°50'N 75°35'W (23.8333N 75.5833W) B. Center Fix Location: 140 miles (225 km) to the SE (128°) from Nassau, Bahamas. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,685m (8,809ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) to the WNW (292°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 45° at 90kts (From the NE at ~ 103.6mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles) to the WNW (296°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 953mb (28.14 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open in the west M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 8 nautical miles N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.1 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph) in the northeast quadrant at 1:41:00Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 16°C (61°F) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the W/WNW (281°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 SE quad Unlike the NW quad, there is still an actual max in the inner eyewall of 77kt, with an outer eyewall max of at least 87kt, with a min in between of 68kt. It would appear there is still convective activity here which probably accounts for the stronger winds, with rates up to 29 mm/hr, which was absent in the NW quad inner eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 ZNS Bahamas tv is reporting live now that Crooked Island and Long Island are extremely hard hit. 90 percent of structures on Acklins haved been destroyed. Rum Cay is reporting gusts to 135 mph according to ZNS tv. Live shot from Nassau shows gale force winds arriving now. This storm has a huge circulation. IInformation valid as of:Thursday, August 25, 2011 0:00 ZStorm Number:09 Level of tropical cyclone development:Hurricane (This information is sometimes inaccurate.) Wind Field Details:The radius of 64 knot (74 miles per hour | 33 meters per second) winds is: 60 nautical miles (69 miles | 111 kilometers) in the northeast quadrant. 60 nautical miles (69 miles | 111 kilometers) in the southeast quadrant. 25 nautical miles (29 miles | 46 kilometers) in the southwest quadrant. 50 nautical miles (58 miles | 93 kilometers) in the northwest quadrant. Isobar details:The last closed isobar has a pressure of 1008 mb. (29.77 inHg | 1008 hPa) The radius of the last closed isobar is 300 nautical miles (345 miles | 556 kilometers). Radius of Max Winds:30 nautical miles (35 miles | 56 kilometers) Wind Gusts:130 knots (150 mph | 67 m/s) System Depth:Deep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 While it may not matter in the long run because of the new large eye, the current VDMs are running about 20 miles south of the 0Z Early Model Tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 SE quad Unlike the NW quad, there is still an actual max in the inner eyewall of 77kt, with an outer eyewall max of at least 87kt, with a min in between of 68kt. It would appear there is still convective activity here which probably accounts for the stronger winds, with rates up to 29 mm/hr, which was absent in the NW quad inner eyewall. Dan, what line of the VDM do I use to be able to figure out the diameter of the larger eye forming? Line M says it is 8 nautical miles, but is that the smaller one being squeezed off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Dan, what line of the VDM do I use to be able to figure out the diameter of the larger eye forming? Line M says it is 8 nautical miles, but is that the smaller one being squeezed off? Generally concentric eyewalls are reported on M (see vortex messages on the previous pages for examples), they include the diameters of both eyes, however the information about it was omitted from this most recent pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WishingForWarmWeather Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Generally concentric eyewalls are reported on M (see vortex messages on the previous pages for examples), they include the diameters of both eyes, however the information about it was omitted from this most recent pass. Okay, perfect. The last 3 that I see say CO14-64. CO is an abbreviation of concentric eyewalls, and 14 is the smaller? They are measuring the second eye wall to be 64 nautical miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Reed Timmer just posted this on his FB from someone in Nassau... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingGlamis Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Reed Timmer just posted this on his FB from someone in Nassau... That is an incredible photo! Almost looks fake, though I'm sure it's real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looking at some satellite loops, Irene appears to have a bit more of a westerly component than NHC forecasted at this time. Running a bit SW of projected track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 That is an incredible photo! Almost looks fake, though I'm sure it's real. he's staying at some sort of fancy resort.. saw a pic from before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Looking at some satellite loops, Irene appears to have a bit more of a westerly component than NHC forecasted at this time. Running a bit SW of projected track. Wobbles all average out. It's going through major structural changes right now, so some *apparent* erratic motion is likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NE quad, 96kt outer wall, 87kt inner wall. Heavy convection in both the NE inner eyewall (35 mm/hr), extrap pressure down to 948.1mb, center looks to be just above 24.0N, just shy of 75.9W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NE quad, 96kt outer wall, 87kt inner wall. Heavy convection in both the NE inner eyewall (35 mm/hr), extrap pressure down to 948.1mb, center looks to be just above 24.0N, just shy of 75.9W. Impressive to say that least that pressure continues to fall while satellite presentation is a little lacking amid the ERC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 SE quad, not much of a max (or convection, unlike the NE quad), 65-70kt winds until the outer eyewall, which has 93kt max final pressure min, 947.3mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Pressure down a few mb, seems they are going with a 32 mile eye, though it is more than half open. 000 URNT12 KNHC 250519 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 25/05:07:40Z B. 24 deg 03 min N 075 deg 49 min W C. 700 mb 2665 m D. 75 kt E. 050 deg 11 nm F. 137 deg 96 kt G. 045 deg 30 nm H. 950 mb [8kt splash] I. 8 C / 3060 m J. 16 C / 3044 m K. 15 C / NA L. OPEN W-NE M. C32 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 1709A IRENE OB 21 MAX FL WIND 96 KT NE QUAD 04:57:50Z MAX FL TEMP 17 C 135 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Dropped it down to 100kt on the advisory, not too surprising with the eyewall replacement cycle still ongoing. With the mess though, was able to gain some longitude, .6W of the 11pm advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Recon which has been there is leaving, while another recon just departed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 She is still hurting on the western side. Wonder how much longer till things get back together. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-avn.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 She is still hurting on the western side. Wonder how much longer till things get back together. http://www.ssd.noaa..../flash-avn.html Probobly not until the eyewall replacement cycle completes itself. Pressure is continuing to drop and cloud tops around the center are remaining very cold, which are signs that when the cycle completes it will likely begin to strengthen, potentially rapidly. Most models have this happening before reaching the Outer Banks of NC, and in addition, Irene will soon be away from any land masses in the Bahamas. With Irene crossing over the Gulf Stream she will likely regain strength with a good change of explosive deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 The new forecast track has the cyclone slicing across W LI sometime Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2011 ...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRENE MOVING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE U.S. EAST COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 76.2W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF NASSAU ABOUT 735 MI...1180 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA-VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 NORFOLK, Va. (AP) — US Navy orders Second Fleet to move out to sea to keep ships safe from Hurricane Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 25, 2011 Author Share Posted August 25, 2011 951 mb and 116 knots at flight level, sounnds like Irene is remarkably steady state, and waiting for the EWRC to finish to take off again. To quote Pasch A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IRENE A FEW HOURS AGOFOUND THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD DROPPED TO 950 MB. HOWEVER...FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WIND DATA SUPPORTED A CURRENT INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 100 KT...AND THIS IS PROBABLY GENEROUS. IT IS PRESUMED THAT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS WAS HALTED BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT EVENT AS SUGGESTED BY MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS. SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE CONDUCIVE WITH WEAK SHEAR...WARM WATERS...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW ANTICYCLONE OVER THE HURRICANE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS RE-STRENGTHENING WITHIN A DAY OR SO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Appears portions of the inner and outer eyewalls are now visible on Miami radar. Rather impressive rain shield with this. Bring some convern Re: flooding further north, especially with the recent heavy rains and what falls today from the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Appears portions of the inner and outer eyewalls are now visible on Miami radar. Rather impressive rain shield with this. Bring some convern Re: flooding further north, especially with the recent heavy rains and what falls today from the front. 06Z GFS shows an axis of 9+" from eastern NC across the Delmarva, all of NJ and across the NYC metro up into VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 25, 2011 Share Posted August 25, 2011 Second heavy squall just went through. Gusty winds, about 30 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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