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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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Ummm... examples? Because of the dynamics that occur in eyewalls... it is quite difficult for me to imagine a true double ring structure "persisting" (please define that also)... considering the consensus is that the inner eyewall's inflow basically gets choked by the outer eyewall.

There are plenty of examples all over the web - some referreed material; some radar imagery, it's all there.

As far as your speculating on the choking and so forth, I have no comment on that - from what I have read on these the physics of them is not entirely understood, but that it is well documented can be found if you bother to look.

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There are plenty of examples all over the web - some referreed material; some radar imagery, it's all there.

As far as your speculating on the choking and so forth, I have no comment on that - from what I have read on these the physics of them is not entirely understood, but that it is well documented can be found if you bother to look.

Considering this is what I was studying before I had a change of heart on what to do with my life, I have read many papers on this. There is one occurrence where someone considered Typhoon Winnie to have a persistent double eyewall, but after reviewing a few papers, it seems more like an odd circumstance where the inner eyewall merged with the outer eyewall. The rest of the time, while there were short periods of time where the two eyewalls existed as a full double ring structure, the inner eyewall inevitably succumbs to the loss of energy being transferred to it and collapses... Whether it is two, ten, or twenty four hours later.

What is really most not understood is the physics/dynamics behind what triggers spiral bands to coalesce into an outer eyewall, the timing behind the collapse of the inner eyewall, how the inner eyewall interacts with the outer eyewall (as opposed to vice versa in the subject I mentioned above), etc.

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Ummm... examples? Because of the dynamics that occur in eyewalls... it is quite difficult for me to imagine a true double ring structure "persisting" (please define that also)... considering the consensus is that the inner eyewall's inflow basically gets choked by the outer eyewall.

If I recall, Gilbert and Allen as well.

Also, I have been trying to search for about an hour now, but a few years back I read a huge published paper about a triple eyewall. It had pictures and everything, and I am doing my damnedest to find it for you.

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Considering this is what I was studying before I had a change of heart on what to do with my life, I have read many papers on this. There is one occurrence where someone considered Typhoon Winnie to have a persistent double eyewall, but after reviewing a few papers, it seems more like an odd circumstance where the inner eyewall merged with the outer eyewall. The rest of the time, while there were short periods of time where the two eyewalls existed as a full double ring structure, the inner eyewall inevitably succumbs to the loss of energy being transferred to it and collapses... Whether it is two, ten, or twenty four hours later.

What is really most not understood is the physics/dynamics behind what triggers spiral bands to coalesce into an outer eyewall, the timing behind the collapse of the inner eyewall, how the inner eyewall interacts with the outer eyewall (as opposed to vice versa in the subject I mentioned above), etc.

Sorry, didn't mean to be terse before - I was trying to leave the office. You know how that is.

Yes, by "persist" I didn't mean that in the sense of a predominating structural characteristic - probably could have chosen a better word. I really was more interested in the fact that it exists, and is documented - however fast any differential processes take place during ensuing replacement, I am sure that is variable depending on the situation. Katrina had double eyewall for awhile preceding the replacement. Some typhoon coming ashore in southeast Asia had one on radar.

Its all good.

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Sorry, didn't mean to be terse before - I was trying to leave the office. You know how that is.

Yes, by "persist" I didn't mean that in the sense of a predominating structural characteristic - probably could have chosen a better word. I really was more interested in the fact that it exists, and is documented - however fast any differential processes take place during ensuing replacement, I am sure that is variable depending on the situation. Katrina had double eyewall for awhile preceding the replacement. Some typhoon coming ashore in southeast Asia had one on radar.

Its all good.

Amber '97 had possibly one of the most well-known concentric eyewall structures, that might be what you're thinking of.

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Sorry, didn't mean to be terse before - I was trying to leave the office. You know how that is.

Yes, by "persist" I didn't mean that in the sense of a predominating structural characteristic - probably could have chosen a better word. I really was more interested in the fact that it exists, and is documented - however fast any differential processes take place during ensuing replacement, I am sure that is variable depending on the situation. Katrina had double eyewall for awhile preceding the replacement. Some typhoon coming ashore in southeast Asia had one on radar.

Its all good.

Also the radial distance between the the EW's would certainly be a factor on the length of time they could coexist. The intricacies of internal structures of well developed hurricanes are really fascinating!

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SE quad, winds stronger with the outer max than inner max. 88kt vs 78kt

232800 2240N 07410W 6967 03051 9940 +085 //// 212069 070 048 000 05
232830 2241N 07411W 6967 03037 9926 +087 //// 211069 070 049 000 05
232900 2242N 07413W 6963 03037 9924 +084 //// 212069 070 055 000 05
232930 2243N 07414W 6964 03031 //// +081 //// 211068 069 /// /// 05
233000 2245N 07415W 6969 03020 9897 +090 //// 211069 070 /// /// 05
233030 2246N 07417W 6965 02998 9888 +087 //// 212069 070 /// /// 05
233100 2247N 07418W 6964 03015 9891 +084 //// 212071 072 /// /// 05
233130 2248N 07420W 6966 02996 9893 +086 //// 213071 072 /// /// 05
233200 2250N 07421W 6967 03002 9900 +075 //// 210073 074 072 010 05
233230 2251N 07422W 6966 03004 9898 +075 //// 208076 076 069 006 01
233300 2252N 07424W 6967 02995 //// +069 //// 209080 081 060 012 01
233330 2254N 07425W 6962 02991 //// +072 //// 213085 088 061 017 01 Outer max
233400 2255N 07427W 6988 02953 //// +067 //// 213084 085 062 021 01
233430 2256N 07428W 6960 02975 //// +070 //// 214083 084 065 017 01
233500 2257N 07429W 6963 02969 //// +084 //// 220077 080 067 015 01
233530 2258N 07431W 6967 02959 //// +090 //// 217075 076 066 004 01
233600 2300N 07432W 6963 02958 9805 +109 //// 219075 076 067 004 01
233630 2301N 07433W 6967 02949 9789 +117 +110 219076 078 065 003 00
233700 2302N 07435W 6963 02945 9772 +123 +114 222074 076 065 002 00
233730 2303N 07436W 6967 02933 9767 +120 //// 227070 072 064 000 01
233800 2304N 07437W 6970 02924 9756 +120 //// 223066 066 063 001 05
233830 2306N 07439W 6956 02928 9742 +123 //// 216065 068 060 001 01
233900 2307N 07440W 6965 02906 9718 +134 +120 213063 064 059 001 00 Min between walls
233930 2308N 07441W 6969 02896 9703 +140 +121 217065 065 057 001 03
234000 2309N 07443W 6967 02889 9687 +144 +120 221066 068 057 001 00
234030 2310N 07444W 6971 02867 9686 +134 +128 222068 069 057 001 00
234100 2311N 07446W 6968 02864 9671 +137 +126 224070 071 056 002 03
234130 2313N 07447W 6967 02848 9659 +137 +120 224074 075 057 002 00
234200 2314N 07448W 6969 02833 9645 +137 +100 222074 076 058 001 00
234230 2315N 07450W 6960 02827 9627 +140 +088 222077 078 060 003 03 Inner Max
234300 2316N 07451W 6966 02803 9603 +144 +101 223076 078 064 011 00
234330 2317N 07452W 6967 02778 9588 +121 //// 224067 068 066 014 01
234400 2318N 07454W 6973 02757 9567 +133 //// 224056 061 067 010 05
234430 2319N 07455W 6966 02748 9542 +141 +136 225042 047 052 004 03
234500 2321N 07457W 6967 02733 9526 +144 +131 216030 033 042 003 00
234530 2322N 07458W 6974 02719 9527 +137 +132 214015 021 034 003 03
234600 2323N 07500W 6967 02726 9518 +145 +128 282003 006 024 001 03 Roughly the center
234630 2324N 07501W 6969 02723 9520 +143 +126 359007 009 023 000 00
234700 2325N 07503W 6975 02720 9526 +141 +128 006013 016 025 001 03
234730 2326N 07505W 6962 02736 9521 +148 +127 011021 025 026 002 00 

Edit: Lowest extrap pressure (949.9mb) was not within the center calm but just NW of it, with 39kt flight level winds

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NW quad double wind max also has the strongest winds in the outer maximum. Flight level winds of 77kt in the inner eye, 99kt in the outer eye. The eyewall replacement cycle is indeed well on it's way.

Well crap... the next 24 hour are when I had it getting to cat 4... this better be a quick cycle because its wasting its MPI right now.

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000

URNT12 KNHC 250021 CCA

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 24/23:50:00Z

B. 23 deg 27 min N

075 deg 02 min W

C. 700 mb 2684 m

D. 71 kt

E. 133 deg 52 nm

F. 212 deg 87 kt

G. 133 deg 47 nm

H. 953 mb [16kt wind at surface on drop]

I. 7 C / 3047 m

J. 16 C / 3055 m

K. 11 C / NA

L. OPEN ENE-SSW

M. CO14-64

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF302 1709A IRENE OB 07 CCA

MAX FL WIND 87 KT SE QUAD 23:33:40Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 99 KT NW QUAD 00:03:40Z

MAX FL TEMP 15 C 325 / 6 NM FROM FL CNTR

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SW quad, very little inner max, outer max 75kt, drops to 50kt, then only goes up to 56kt for the inner eye wall. Extrap pressure 950.8. NE quad looks to be the same, there is 87kt with the inner wall, but not really a max since winds are between 84-85kt until the outer eyewall, which is at least 95kt (just got to the outer wall with this set of data, max probably on next.) With this it seems to be making good progress with the eyewall replacement cycle.

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SW quad, very little inner max, outer max 75kt, drops to 50kt, then only goes up to 56kt for the inner eye wall. Extrap pressure 950.8. NE quad looks to be the same, there is 87kt with the inner wall, but not really a max since winds are between 84-85kt until the outer eyewall, which is at least 95kt (just got to the outer wall with this set of data, max probably on next.) With this it seems to be making good progress with the eyewall replacement cycle.

Thanks for your posts! You really do a great job of analyzing the recon data for everyone...

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SW quad, very little inner max, outer max 75kt, drops to 50kt, then only goes up to 56kt for the inner eye wall. Extrap pressure 950.8. NE quad looks to be the same, there is 87kt with the inner wall, but not really a max since winds are between 84-85kt until the outer eyewall, which is at least 95kt (just got to the outer wall with this set of data, max probably on next.) With this it seems to be making good progress with the eyewall replacement cycle.

Just wanted to say thanks, dan. You're doing an excellent job with posting the latest recon and analyzing it really well.

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Many thanks guys

New vortex still showing 14/64 for the size of the concentric eyes.

000

URNT12 KNHC 250203 CCA

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 25/01:28:30Z

B. 23 deg 37 min N

075 deg 18 min W

C. 700 mb 2834 m

D. 57 kt

E. 223 deg 16 nm

F. 319 deg 75 kt

G. 224 deg 20 nm

H. EXTRAP 950 mb [no drop or missed badly]

I. 10 C / 3044 m

J. 15 C / 3047 m

K. 9 C / NA

L. OPEN W-SE

M. CO14-64

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 0.1 nm

P. AF302 1709A IRENE OB 11 CCA

MAX FL WIND 99 KT NW QUAD 00:03:40Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 99 KT NE QUAD 01:41:30Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

MAX FL TEMP 16 C 222 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR

They did a drop with the inner eyewall (landed at 968mb at the surface), 66kt at the surface, 98kt max

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Dan, I've been enjoying reading your analysis of recon also. Would you hasten to guess how long this erc might last? Through the night into tomorrow at some point I assume? I know I"ve read that these erc's can take a few hours..up to a day or so to complete. Was just wondering your opinion on this particular one.

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Many thanks guys

New vortex still showing 14/64 for the size of the concentric eyes.

000

URNT12 KNHC 250203 CCA

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 25/01:28:30Z

B. 23 deg 37 min N

075 deg 18 min W

C. 700 mb 2834 m

D. 57 kt

E. 223 deg 16 nm

F. 319 deg 75 kt

G. 224 deg 20 nm

H. EXTRAP 950 mb [no drop or missed badly]

I. 10 C / 3044 m

J. 15 C / 3047 m

K. 9 C / NA

L. OPEN W-SE

M. CO14-64

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 0.1 nm

P. AF302 1709A IRENE OB 11 CCA

MAX FL WIND 99 KT NW QUAD 00:03:40Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 99 KT NE QUAD 01:41:30Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

MAX FL TEMP 16 C 222 / 15 NM FROM FL CNTR

They did a drop with the inner eyewall (landed at 968mb at the surface), 66kt at the surface, 98kt max

Based on your posts and the satellite appearance, with the ERC going on it may have slightly weakened to 90-95 kt. I wonder if they will go with that on the advisory, or with the assumption that it is more of a fluctuation and the central pressure holding or even dropping slightly they will just hold it at a cat 3.

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Just a note to let folks know that no one is discouraged from posting in the pinned threads. While the early stages of the formation of Irene have brought many into the threads, and the eventual track have been unclear, we are entering a time when real interest in good and factual information will become important. We all are trying very hard to work together as a team to make things as informative and readable as possible. One of the comments I heard repeatedly at conference was folks felt uncomfortable replying to tropical topics. We encourage those that have an interest to be involved and we are fortunate to have some of the best red tags in the business from a tropical stand point. I suspect the pace will pick up as we near the time when decisions will be made and perhaps watches begin to be hoisted along the East Coast.

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Just a note to let folks know that no one is discouraged from posting in the pinned threads. While the early stages of the formation of Irene have brought many into the threads, and the eventual track have been unclear, we are entering a time when real interest in good and factual information will become important. We all are trying very hard to work together as a team to make things as informative and readable as possible. One of the comments I heard repeatedly at conference was folks felt uncomfortable replying to tropical topics. We encourage those that have an interest to be involved and we are fortunate to have some of the best red tags in the business from a tropical stand point. I suspect the pace will pick up as we near the time when decisions will be made and perhaps watches begin to be hoisted along the East Coast.

One thing I did not understand about a portion of the posting policy is the deletion of posts related to model runs.

It seems that an amount of people including myself would fine such posts extremely useful when mobile. I understand deletion if it had been posted several times however. I like to hear the minute details in the run as it progresses, not just 'further east, or further west'. Its nice to hear why.

I know mod's have a lot on their plate but I feel like the tightness of the posting policy might be a bit tight in that regard.

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One thing I did not understand about a portion of the posting policy is the deletion of posts related to model runs.

It seems that an amount of people including myself would fine such posts extremely useful when mobile. I understand deletion if it had been posted several times however. I like to hear the minute details in the run as it progresses, not just 'further east, or further west'. Its nice to hear why.

I know mod's have a lot on their plate but I feel like the tightness of the posting policy might be a bit tight in that regard.

We have had discussions regarding this and I suspect you'll see a bit of a difference now that an actual threat may be nearing.;)

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We have had discussions regarding this and I suspect you'll see a bit of a difference now that an actual threat may be nearing.;)

Sorry for bringing it back up.

Don't have much time to actually sit and read this board well at any point in the month of August. (Preseason camp)

I understand where you are coming from regarding the subject.

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\URNT12 KNHC 250203 CCA

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 25/01:28:30Z

\H. EXTRAP 950 mb [no drop or missed badly]

Just an FYI...This original vortex message was corrected for a change in pressure (954mb)...

URNT12 KNHC 250203 CCB

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 25/01:28:40Z

B. 23 deg 37 min N

075 deg 18 min W

C. 700 mb 2665 m

D. 57 kt

E. 223 deg 16 nm

F. 319 deg 75 kt

G. 224 deg 20 nm

H. EXTRAP 954 mb

I. 10 C / 3044 m

J. 15 C / 3047 m

K. 9 C / NA

L. OPEN W-SE

M. CO14-64

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 0.1 nm

P. AF302 1709A IRENE OB 11 CCB

MAX FL WIND 99 KT NW QUAD 00:03:40Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 99 KT NE QUAD 01:41:30Z

SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

MAX FL TEMP 16 C 222 / 12 NM FROM FL CNTR

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Kept at 120mph... 952 mb

...Hurricane Irene dangerously approaching the northwestern Bahamas...

summary of 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...

information -----------------------------------------------

location...23.8n 75.4w about 790 mi...1270 km S of Cape Hatteras North Carolina about 150 mi...245 km ESE of Nassau

maximum sustained winds...120 mph...195 km/h

present movement...NW or 315 degrees at 12 mph...19 km/h

minimum central pressure...952 mb...28.11 inches

Hurricane and tropical storm watches will likely be required for portions of the coast of the Carolinas early Thursday.

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