Major Hurricane Irene live tracking

[OKpowdah]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)

Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 14:11Z

Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)

Storm Number: 09

Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 13

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011

Observation Number: 27

A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 13:44Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°13'N 73°39'W (22.2167N 73.65W)

B. Center Fix Location: 170 miles (273 km) to the WNW (288°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 152° at 114kts (From the SSE at ~ 131.2mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (53°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 956mb (28.23 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,447m (8,028ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,419m (7,936ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 114kts (~ 131.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:40Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the southwest quadrant at 13:47Z

[LakeEffectKing]

Cuban radar picking out the northern portion of the inner eyewall and the SW'ern portion of the secondary (future??) eyewall:

[k***]

re: ERC

the quicker the better. if this waits 24 hours then we get an inner eyewall collapse the chances of a strong landfall fall precipitously.

[HurricaneJosh]

The new forecast is out. They kept it pretty-much the same-- still bringing it across E LI and into RI.

The new peak intensity is 115 kt (Cat 4). The final intensity before landfall is 85 kt, but get this: they have it up in ME with winds still at 70 kt! Wow-- seems bullish.

It also looks like they accelerate it more this time around.

[OKpowdah]

re: ERC

the quicker the better. if this waits 24 hours then we get an inner eyewall collapse the chances of a strong landfall fall precipitously.

We need to see winds increase significantly in the short term, to increase centrifugal force toward the outer wall.

[dan88]

It's likely that the Eyewall replacement cycle has already started. Recon's latest pass through the SW quad actually has the max flight level winds in that quad associated with the outer eyewall.

142430 2137N 07432W 6967 03067 //// +101 //// 318055 057 /// /// 05

142500 2138N 07431W 6964 03062 //// +105 //// 320059 059 /// /// 05

142530 2139N 07430W 6972 03051 //// +104 //// 320060 061 /// /// 05

142600 2140N 07428W 6966 03053 //// +100 //// 320061 061 /// /// 05

142630 2142N 07427W 6969 03046 //// +107 //// 318061 062 /// /// 05

142700 2143N 07426W 6964 03047 //// +107 //// 316061 062 /// /// 05

142730 2144N 07425W 6970 03036 //// +104 //// 313066 069 /// /// 05

142800 2145N 07423W 6970 03033 //// +098 //// 312069 070 /// /// 05

142830 2146N 07422W 6965 03036 //// +098 //// 313070 070 /// /// 05

142900 2148N 07421W 6965 03029 //// +090 //// 314073 074 /// /// 05

142930 2149N 07419W 6966 03019 //// +085 //// 310071 072 /// /// 05

143000 2150N 07418W 6969 03012 //// +089 //// 315073 077 /// /// 05 Outer Eyewall max

143030 2151N 07417W 6969 03003 //// +095 //// 318064 068 /// /// 05

143100 2153N 07416W 6967 03000 //// +099 //// 319059 060 /// /// 05

143130 2154N 07414W 6970 02994 //// +106 //// 312056 058 /// /// 05

143200 2155N 07413W 6964 02994 //// +106 //// 312055 055 /// /// 05 Min between the eyewalls

143230 2156N 07412W 6969 02980 //// +110 //// 311054 055 /// /// 05

143300 2157N 07410W 6970 02974 //// +117 //// 310056 056 /// /// 05

143330 2159N 07409W 6964 02971 //// +115 //// 308054 055 /// /// 05

143400 2200N 07408W 6970 02955 //// +119 //// 306055 056 /// /// 05

143430 2201N 07406W 6961 02961 //// +119 //// 306061 062 /// /// 05

143500 2203N 07405W 6971 02937 //// +129 //// 307064 065 /// /// 05

143530 2204N 07403W 6966 02928 //// +148 //// 306065 066 /// /// 05

143600 2205N 07402W 6963 02916 //// +155 //// 303066 066 /// /// 05

143630 2206N 07401W 6967 02894 //// +148 //// 301066 067 /// /// 05

143700 2208N 07359W 6969 02872 //// +161 //// 300071 073 /// /// 05 Inner eyewall max

143730 2209N 07358W 6962 02862 //// +170 //// 298070 072 /// /// 05

143800 2210N 07356W 6964 02833 //// +174 //// 294068 069 /// /// 05

143830 2212N 07355W 6965 02803 //// +190 //// 294065 065 /// /// 05

143900 2213N 07354W 6969 02776 //// +171 //// 284046 056 /// /// 05

143930 2215N 07353W 6973 02758 //// +163 //// 286019 024 /// /// 05

144000 2217N 07352W 6962 02761 //// +173 //// 285007 012 /// /// 05

144030 2219N 07352W 6973 02744 //// +171 //// 245002 004 /// /// 05 Current center

144100 2220N 07351W 6971 02744 //// +159 //// 100007 010 /// /// 05

144130 2222N 07351W 6970 02748 //// +165 //// 106011 013 /// /// 05

144200 2223N 07349W 6970 02742 //// +165 //// 150018 021 /// /// 05

[Juliancolton]

"THE UPDATED NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED EASTWARD AT 96 AND 120 HOURS AND LIES BETWEEN THOSE TWO CONSENSUS AIDS"

[Floydbuster]

[OKpowdah]

Excellent outflow, that's for sure

[Floydbuster]

Excellent outflow, that's for sure

Clearly and inflow as well moving away from Hispaniola. That image shows in perspective how close this was to being a significant South Florida storm. Not too far off from my "mega-cane" avatar

[Mallow]

Cuban radar picking out the northern portion of the inner eyewall and the SW'ern portion of the secondary (future??) eyewall:

Looks like the northern eyewall is passing straight over the northern part of Acklin's Island, and right over Crooked Island. About 775 people live on both those islands... so not that densely populated there.

[Festus]

Looks like the northern eyewall is passing straight over the northern part of Acklin's Island, and right over Crooked Island. About 775 people live on both those islands... so not that densely populated there.

NHC 11:00 AM update...

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

1100 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

IRENE HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BECOME

MORE DISTINCT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT IS SURROUNDED BY CLOUD

TOPS COLDER THAN -70 DEGREES CELSIUS. BOTH AIR FORCE AND NOAA

HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT HAVE BEEN INVESTIGATING IRENE THIS

MORNING. THE AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED A PEAK 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL

WIND OF 112 KT JUST BEFORE 1200 UTC...AND THIS SUPPORTED THE

UPGRADE TO A 100-KT CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AT THAT TIME. SINCE

THAT TIME THE NOAA AIRCRAFT REPORTED 115 KT AT 750 MB. THE

PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND 956 MB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY

ESTIMATE REMAINS 100 KT.

THE OUTFLOW HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE HURRICANE AND IRENE

WILL BE MOVING OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29 DEGREES

CELSIUS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THESE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS

FAVOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION AND THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST

CALLS FOR IRENE TO REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS.

AFTER THAT TIME...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND SPEEDS ARE LIKELY DUE

TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENTS. THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE SECONDARY EYEWALL

FORMATION TECHNIQUE SHOWS A VERY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF THAT OCCURRING

DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO

GRADUALLY INCREASE AND THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER

SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATERS BY 96 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN

GRADUAL WEAKENING...HOWEVER IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A LARGE AND

POWERFUL HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

AIRCRAFT FIXES DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS MADE

THE EXPECTED TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF

305/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING AND THE

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT FOR THE FIRST 2-3

DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT

IRENE CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST HEADING OR TURNS BACK TOWARD

THE NORTH AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE GREAT

LAKES REGION. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS REMAIN ALONG THE WEST SIDE

OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND SHOW A TRACK OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE

MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE

AND KEEP THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WELL OFFSHORE. GIVEN THE TYPICAL

MODEL AND OFFICIAL TRACK ERRORS...BOTH SCENARIOS ARE VIABLE OPTIONS

AT THIS TIME...AND USERS ARE ONCE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON

SPECIFIC FORECAST POINTS THREE TO FIVE DAYS DOWNSTREAM. THE TVCA

CONSENSUS AND THE EXPERIMENTAL HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT

PROJECT CONSENSUS WERE RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC

FORECAST. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED EASTWARD AT 96 AND

120 HOURS AND LIES BETWEEN THOSE TWO CONSENSUS AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 22.4N 73.9W 100 KT 115 MPH

12H 25/0000Z 23.4N 74.8W 110 KT 125 MPH

24H 25/1200Z 25.1N 76.1W 115 KT 135 MPH

36H 26/0000Z 27.2N 76.9W 115 KT 135 MPH

48H 26/1200Z 29.3N 77.2W 110 KT 125 MPH

72H 27/1200Z 33.2N 76.2W 100 KT 115 MPH

96H 28/1200Z 38.5N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

120H 29/1200Z 45.0N 69.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND

[dan88]

116kt at 700mb now, probably justification to raise the winds up to 105kt at the next advisory if it holds steady (using the typical 90% from 700mb)

[OKpowdah]

AF has a peak FL wind of 116kt, and an outer max of 96kt

[dan88]

000

URNT12 KNHC 241506

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 24/14:40:40Z

B. 22 deg 19 min N

073 deg 52 min W

C. 700 mb 2706 m

D. NA

E. NA

F. 311 deg 77 kt

G. 223 deg 37 nm

H. 957 mb [splash with 7kt winds]

I. 9 C / 3055 m

J. 18 C / 3049 m

K. 8 C / NA

L. OPEN S-NW

M. C18

N. 12345 / 07

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF303 1409A IRENE OB 16

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 116 KT NE QUAD 14:52:30Z

MAX FL TEMP 19 C 203 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR

[dan88]

Eye directly over Crooked Island.

[wxsmwhrms]

Cold tops have really refocused around the eye again which has become more distinct once more. Crooked Island (population 600) getting pounded.

[am19psu]

Secondary wind max showing up in the NW quad now on the latest AF pass.

[wxmx]

Secondary wind max showing up in the NW quad now on the latest AF pass.

Yep, ERC soon probably

[Nikolai]

I think we could see fairly rapid intensification once the EWRC is completed--shear continues to drop and SSTs will still be very conducive to strengthening. I don't think a high-end Cat 4 is out of the question (150 or so) but a peak of around 140-145 would be more reasonable. As pressure is already down to nearly 950, I think a minimum pressure of ~920 is also rather likely--Irene's large size is a major factor in how low the pressure will likely drop.

For those looking for major impacts to the Northeast, the large size of Irene will help "her" maintain strength considerably, as well as how low the pressure looks to drop. While Irene may only impact as a Cat 2 (or low-end Cat 3--still very significant where ever it ends up), the lag in the corresponding rise in pressure should allow Irene to keep the surge potential of a stronger storm... assuming it doesn't disintegrate rapidly. Very noteworthy is how shear doesn't look like a major issue prior to landfall, which is a rather rare exception for storms hitting the Northeast.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

I think we could see fairly rapid intensification once the EWRC is completed--shear continues to drop and SSTs will still be very conducive to strengthening. I don't think a high-end Cat 4 is out of the question (150 or so) but a peak of around 140-145 would be more reasonable. As pressure is already down to nearly 950, I think a minimum pressure of ~920 is also rather likely--Irene's large size is a major factor in how low the pressure will likely drop.

I actually agree with this. The outer eyewall that we can see developing on microwave imagery looks a lot more stable than the inner eyewall ever was... it seemed the inner eyewall rarely was fully closed due to the interaction with Hispaniola. Combine this with the phenomenal upper level conditions and TCHP ahead, and it is a recipe for some prime strengthening.

[dan88]

(all winds 700mb flight level)

NW quad 71kt outer wall max, 80kt inner wall max.

SE quad, 106kt inner eye

Center roughly 22.55N, 74.15W.

[Max]

(all winds 700mb flight level)

NW quad 71kt outer wall max, 80kt inner wall max.

SE quad, at least 106kt inner eye

Center roughly 22.55N, 72.15W.

74W not 72W, probably a typo lol

[Nikolai]

Do you have any data to back this up, like any pictures or model prognostics, etc.?

You can look at the SST maps in this & other threads and the shear forecast is based on the SHIPS model, also mentioned in this thread.

I don't think Irene will stay 135+ for more than 24 hours, though. I highly doubt we see a landfalling Cat 4 (anything above 120 is far-fetched, even 110-120 is optimistic).

[dan88]

Looking nice at the moment, convection in the NE quad is cooling, seeing some warming in the SW eyewall though.

[dan88]

Down a couple mb

000

URNT12 KNHC 241728

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 24/17:03:20Z

B. 22 deg 33 min N

074 deg 09 min W

C. 700 mb 2697 m

D. NA

E. NA

F. 034 deg 80 kt

G. 315 deg 13 nm

H. 954 mb [splash with 5kt winds]

I. 10 C / 3050 m

J. 18 C / 3037 m

K. 11 C / NA

L. OPEN SW

M. C16

N. 12345 / 07

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF303 1409A IRENE OB 21

MAX FL WIND 116 KT NE QUAD 14:52:30Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 106 KT SE QUAD 17:12:00Z

MAX FL TEMP 20 C 317 / 9 NM FROM FL CNTR

[Solak]

Is there a rapidscan satellite image available yet? Using Weathertap imagery, you can see the clouds inside the eye really dancing a jitterbug!

[OKpowdah]

Eye has become a lot clearer, more symmetric, and the eyewall definitely tighter in the last few hours. I think we're going to see the inner eyewall max out at some point this afternoon and evening, maybe with winds getting up to 110kt, before weakening as the wall collapses.

This is going to be a BIG hurricane by the looks of it, after the ERC

[dan88]

Up to 105kt

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.7N 74.3W

ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF LONG ISLAND BAHAMAS

ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF NASSAU

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

[blazess556]

Air force dropsonde dropped in eyewall found 122 knots wind at 952 mb.