Srain Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I should have said Gulf Region WFO's, Sean. I see Wilmington and Newport/Morehead City have also made some mention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Experimental FIM model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I should have said Gulf Region WFO's, Sean. I see Wilmington and Newport/Morehead City have also made some mention. indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Interesting to note that besides San Juan, only two NWS WFO's even mention 97L... Mobile: WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LARGE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AS VARIOUS MODELS DO HAVE THIS SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS EITHER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OR CARIBBEAN SEA LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. Houston/Galveston: GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ARE ALL SHOWING A TROPICAL SYSTEM AROUND CUBA ON THE 25TH...BUT HAVE WIDE RANGING SOLNS/TRACKS AFTER THAT. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STRENGTHEN IT ENOUGH WHERE WE PROBABLY WOULDN`T COMPLAIN IF THE RIDGE ACTUALLY HOLDS FOR JUST A WHILE LONGER...(WHICH IT PROBABLY WILL HERE) Fort Worth has been talking about this system since the early morning of August 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Fort Worth has been talking about this system since the early morning of August 18. I can see a wish cast scenario for this helping the Texas drought, looking at the Day 7 and 8 Euro ensembles, the trough is a little weaker than forecast, it gets pulled into the Gulf but not caught, and then proceeds West at the latitude of North Mexico or Deep South Texas under the ridge, and beta cancels tendency to go WSW, but with the none of the reliable modelling showing that except the 18Z GFS, it seems a fairly unlikely solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Fort Worth has been talking about this system since the early morning of August 18. So, since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Meh, this thing appears to have a tough road ahead if the 12Z tracks are anywhere near correct... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Meh, this thing appears to have a tough road ahead if the 12Z tracks are anywhere near correct... Yep. I have the track a little south of TVCA, but still, this looks like a rain event for the Caribbean. If the MR models are right though, the environment will be highly conducive on the other side of the Greater Antilles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Yep. I have the track a little south of TVCA, but still, this looks like a rain event for the Caribbean. If the MR models are right though, the environment will be highly conducive on the other side of the Greater Antilles Provided of course that it is still a distinct entity. Caveats FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Provided of course that it is still a distinct entity. Caveats FTW. might be the fork in teh season if it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 might be the fork in teh season if it's not. Nah, we're ok. There's no heat waves in Europe this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Yep. I have the track a little south of TVCA, but still, this looks like a rain event for the Caribbean. If the MR models are right though, the environment will be highly conducive on the other side of the Greater Antilles Just like Emily right . On the bright side, this was about the point back in Emily's genesis where the ECWMF gave up on development and didn't want anything to do with the system. To see the ECWMF on board with a strengthening system even after land interaction with Hispaniola makes me a lot more confident that the atmospheric environment will be there, and its not the GFS just making up things again until a few runs before landfall. Nah, we're ok. There's no heat waves in Europe this year. Thank god, because you know the heat in Moscow was what caused all the tropical cyclones last year to re-curve. [/rainstorm] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looks like we're sitting pretty here in St Croix for our first tropical cyclone gusts of the season (I don't count Emily) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Just like Emily right . On the bright side, this was about the point back in Emily's genesis where the ECWMF gave up on development and didn't want anything to do with the system. To see the ECWMF on board with a strengthening system even after land interaction with Hispaniola makes me a lot more confident that the atmospheric environment will be there, and its not the GFS just making up things again until a few runs before landfall. This... but also I'm absolutely not surprised that the 00Z Euro went back right- again. I hope people are paying attention to this 00Z/12Z fight, because it looks like many people are looking only at two runs in a row and extrapolating that the Euro has shifted away from a Gulf threat. I still highly believe that since most model runs and ensembles are showing a Gulf solution, that it is the one to believe in more. I'm betting that the 12Z Euro is back to an intense hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Perhaps 97L is charging her lasers. Sustained convection going up everywhere. http://www.ssd.noaa....l/loop-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Couple of things I thought about going forward...sorry if they were already posted. It's interesting that the blocking continues to be forecasted to weaken too quickly. I was looking at what the EC ensembles had over the NAO region and last weeks forecast of more neutral to positive vs the current forecast of it becoming more negative is something to be aware of. Also, I noticed that we are looking at a more +PNA being forecasted with ridging out in the west. I guess what it could mean is that we may have more troughing in the nrn tier of the country and obviously there would be implications on tropical landfalls. Something to perhaps think about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 97L is the more northerly circle from what I can tell. What is up with the cluster south of it in the ITCZ? The NWS has it circled as part of 97L in their TWO. Could someone explain if they just got carried away with their circle showing 40% in the TWO or is it part of 97L. Also could that convection south of the first circle I made disrupt 97L's development if it is not associated with 97L. If 97L is only the northerly circled convection it sure is a small system.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardWarning Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I think 97L is finally showing some signs of Improvement, and we will finally see a healthy tropical system by tomorrow morning. 97L has an impressive mid-level spin on Satelite, and convection is firing around its COC. Convection starting to fire up. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg Vigorours mid-level spin. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html 97L is in relatively favorable conditions at the moment, which will improve as it moves into warmer waters. Wind shear is down to 5-10 knots. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=shr&zoom=&time However, dry air to 97L's South, West and North will slow its development. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 97L is the more northerly circle from what I can tell. What is up with the cluster south of it in the ITCZ? The NWS has it circled as part of 97L in their TWO. Could someone explain if they just got carried away with their circle showing 40% in the TWO or is it part of 97L. Also could that convection south of the first circle I made disrupt 97L's development if it is not associated with 97L. If 97L is only the northerly circled convection it sure is a small system.... 97L circulation in a naked swirl south of the convection that is the most northerly. There are early indications of some convection firing up around the center of circulation but it has a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Skirts Hispaniola/East Cuba, crosses western Cuba and lands on the panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Updated GFS from Gawx a few days ago Updated GFS! 06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast 12Z Mon: central LA 8/30 18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8 00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27 06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28 12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28 18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8 00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27 06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26 12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27 18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25 00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27 06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27 12z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Tampa/Big bend 8/27 18z Thur: Houston 8/30 00Z Fri: Mobile 8/29 06Z Fri: Big bend 8/28 12Z Fri: Pensacola 8/29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Updated GFS from Gawx a few days ago Updated GFS! 06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast 12Z Mon: central LA 8/30 18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8 00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27 06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28 12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28 18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8 00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27 06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26 12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27 18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25 00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27 06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27 12z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Tampa/Big bend 8/27 18z Thur: Houston 8/30 00Z Fri: Mobile 8/29 06Z Fri: Big bend 8/28 12Z Fri: Pensacola 8/29 Ivanhater: It looks like the GFS is wanting to play in your backyard for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big O Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Couple of things I thought about going forward...sorry if they were already posted. It's interesting that the blocking continues to be forecasted to weaken too quickly. I was looking at what the EC ensembles had over the NAO region and last weeks forecast of more neutral to positive vs the current forecast of it becoming more negative is something to be aware of. Also, I noticed that we are looking at a more +PNA being forecasted with ridging out in the west. I guess what it could mean is that we may have more troughing in the nrn tier of the country and obviously there would be implications on tropical landfalls. Something to perhaps think about. If this verifies and there is more ridging in the west and troughing in the northern tier of the country, would that tend to lead to more ridging over the eastern US? Would that shift the focus of landfall toward the central and western GOM versus the eastern GOM and SE USA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Updated GFS from Gawx a few days ago Updated GFS! 06Z Mon: up U.S. East coast 12Z Mon: central LA 8/30 18Z Mon: skirts FL east coast to Charleston 8/27-8 00Z Tue: Tampa 8/27 06Z Tue: Pensacola 8/28 12Z Tue: S tip FL 8/26 to MS 8/28 18Z Tue: skirts FL east coast to Beaufort, SC 8/27-8 00Z Wed: FL Keys 8/26 to Apalachicola 8/27 06Z Wed: Ft. Lauderdale 8/26 12Z Wed: Georgia/South Carolina border 8/27 18Z Wed: West Palm beach up east coast of FL 8/25 00Z Thur: FL Keys 8/26 to west coast of FL 8/27 06Z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Big bend 8/27 12z Thur: Key West 8/26 to Tampa/Big bend 8/27 18z Thur: Houston 8/30 00Z Fri: Mobile 8/29 06Z Fri: Big bend 8/28 12Z Fri: Pensacola 8/29 6 of last 7 runs shows a fairly tight window from Mobile to Tampa. Only 18z yesterday was an outlier. Even some of the early runs had a similar fate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Recon tomorrow and probably a G-IV mission on Sunday. Anyone know if/when San Juan or the Netherland Antilles will be asked to launch extra soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Hard not to get somewhat excited when you see the GFS. The extended panels are pretty awesome. HP to the NW, huge TCHP in the loop current area, low shear environment.System also looks to be getting more organized this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 If this verifies and there is more ridging in the west and troughing in the northern tier of the country, would that tend to lead to more ridging over the eastern US? Would that shift the focus of landfall toward the central and western GOM versus the eastern GOM and SE USA? No. It will make the trough stronger across the GL/OH Valley and lead to a solution farther east, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 FWIW..12Z Canadian is very far south..south of Jamaica at 144 hours..when the longer range comes out I would imagine a WNW to NW turn in the Gulf with that weakness in the Gulf. Not sure though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 No. It will make the trough stronger across the GL/OH Valley and lead to a solution farther east, if anything. Yeah, it's 7-10 days out so something could obviously change, but just looking at the global means, it seems like the position of that large upper high over the SW US would make it very difficult for anything to move into say TX/LA. It seems like a system would want to go in somewhere over the eastern Gulf or SE US coast, or if it stayed way south and just miss all the troughing, go west more toward MX. The GFS is certainly forecasting very favorable looking conditions over the next 7-10 days, particuarly once anything gets W of about 75W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 Yeah, it's 7-10 days out so something could obviously change, but just looking at the global means, it seems like the position of that large upper high over the SW US would make it very difficult for anything to move into say TX/LA. It seems like a system would want to go in somewhere over the eastern Gulf or SE US coast, or if it stayed way south and just miss all the troughing, go west more toward MX. The GFS is certainly forecasting very favorable looking conditions over the next 7-10 days, particuarly once anything gets W of about 75W. In my amateur opinion, the only way it could make it to Texas (what I want, a landfall South of Matagorda that relieves the drought) after looking at the 7 and 8 day Euro ensemble means on Alan's page is the trough is strong enough to pull it Northward to the latitude of South Texas in the Gulf but leaves it behind to maybe head West under the ridging, maybe beta balancing flow that might be a bit North of due East below and East of the high. Not impossible, but seems rather unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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