Thundersnow12 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 impressive new blow up of convection on the north side of the eye...looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyinNC Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Not sure if this is the appropriate thread for this, but I have just been looking into surge information too. I found these graphics on wunderground that shows the results of the SLOSH surge model on a bunch of areas given a certain strength hurricane. Keep in mind though, these are probably modeled as if the storm is heading for a direct hit and not just paralleling the coast. http://www.wundergro...MidAtlSurge.asp I have also been looking up tidal information for the Atlantic City area since I plan on "chasing" there. There will be a new moon so tides will be exacerbated. I saw that the high tide occurs at around 12z Sunday, which will be around the time Irene makes its closest approach to the area. I'm worried for the Norfolk, Va. Beach, and Yorktown areas, with storm surge and rain. these areas flood with 3 inches of rain. plus, sorry to say it's a very difficult area to evac., lots of poor and military families with little to no transportation. If this hits Norfolk, it's going to bring pain to many many people. I hope the nogaps is right, but I think not ,I'm afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 This will likely be upgraded back to cat 2 at 2am... latest dropsonde shows 86 knot surface winds 2mb from the surface. Edit: this is roughly 18 meters above the surface after doing some quick math, so maybe its still a bit too high for it considered to be a surface wind reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 All the signs are pointing to a Cat 2 on the way up now. Good eye presentation, higher cloud tops, good ventilation, and now dropsondes in the eyewall indicating it's strengthening. Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE) - Wind Speed: 98 knots (113 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 140° (from the SE) - Wind Speed: 90 knots (104 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 698mb to 979mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 115° (from the ESE) - Wind Speed: 90 knots (104 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 not too shabby... down to 966mb in the latest recon pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011 ...IRENE STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST. THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IRENE IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ok I'm just going to go out on a limb... this system is currently undergoing RI. I'm expecting at least cat 3 intensity when the next recon plane gets in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Ok I'm just going to go out on a limb... this system is currently undergoing RI. I'm expecting at least cat 3 intensity when the next recon plane gets in there. I'd say you are probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyinNC Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 ok, I think you're nuts, but whatever. I think it's going to be close , but will take the heat of the day to give her that last boost. good talk BTW and I appreciate your maps and pics showing those fronts. Nogaps was out there as well I think, in the begining and has handled that front pretty well. my question is , she's slowed forward motion, so how will that effect interation with the trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 06z SHIPS was initialized with 95kt, so may be going with that for the 5am advisory It also has current shear as 15kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 CDO becoming more circular and the eye is trying to clear out somewhat.... I'm gonna guess we will have some gorgeous visible shots later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 06z SHIPS was initialized with 95kt, so may be going with that for the 5am advisory It also has current shear as 15kt FNMOC and NRLMRY showing 95kts as well.. around 110mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 The 5 am advisory has the cyclone just grazing Cape Hatteras and coming ashore on E LI and extreme SE CT/RI. The Day 5 position is over inland RI with winds of 70 kt. Current intensity is bumped up to 95 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAPPG Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Not sure if this is the appropriate thread for this, but I have just been looking into surge information too. I found these graphics on wunderground that shows the results of the SLOSH surge model on a bunch of areas given a certain strength hurricane. Keep in mind though, these are probably modeled as if the storm is heading for a direct hit and not just paralleling the coast. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/MidAtlSurge.asp I have also been looking up tidal information for the Atlantic City area since I plan on "chasing" there. There will be a new moon so tides will be exacerbated. I saw that the high tide occurs at around 12z Sunday, which will be around the time Irene makes its closest approach to the area. You are right. Highest tides are Sunday and Monday on the new moon. Flooding is a major threat during these astronomical conditions for the Jersey barrier islands. 25 knot plus persistent E or NE winds alone "on the moon" can cause flooding there as the water will fill the bays but cannot escape.Add 6"+ rain and any increase of wind and there will be major flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I notice on the later Satellite frames that it is now making the turn from WNW to NW now a bit quicker than expected. That is another reason why I think that could very storm taking track similar to Earl if not maybe even further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I notice on the later Satellite frames that it is now making the turn from WNW to NW now a bit quicker than expected. That is another reason why I think that could very storm taking track similar to Earl if not maybe even further east. 1. As per the NHC Discussion, it's been wobbling W and then NW all night, with an average motion of WNW. Don't read too much into one wobble. 2. They forecast it to turn NW today, so that would be in line with their forecast. 3. You've made it very clear over many posts that you think the hurricane will recurve and miss-- no need to keep repeating it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 1. As per the NHC Discussion, it's been wobbling W and then NW all night, with an average motion of WNW. Don't read too much into one wobble. 2. They forecast it to turn NW today, so that would be in line with their forecast. 3. You've made it very clear over many posts that you think the hurricane will recurve and miss-- no need to keep repeating it. True, let's see how fast it does make complete shift to the NW and how much it tracks NW then that would give better aside from models where the storm would heading. Computers models are not quite as good handling tropical systems like with winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Latest extrapolated pressure from the NOAA flight was 957.1mb... another 9mb drop if that turns up on the dropsonde from the last flight.... need to NE pass to see what those max winds are, the N quad isn't cutting it at only 95 knots FL winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's now a Cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Latest extrapolated pressure from the NOAA flight was 957.1mb... another 9mb drop if that turns up on the dropsonde from the last flight.... need to NE pass to see what those max winds are, the N quad isn't cutting it at only 95 knots FL winds. If this 9mb drop is inidicative of RI (and I think it probably is), the winds usually take time to catch up to the pressure falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 It's now a Cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like Irene may already developing an outer eyewall, and dry moat. ERC today possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 115kt flight level, and 954.5mb dropsonde has 956mb with 13kt surface wind speed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like Irene may already developing an outer eyewall, and dry moat. ERC today possible There's still way to go for an ERC, but the eye is small, so it's probable that if an outer eyewall consolidates, the small eye would quickly fall apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 There's still way to go for an ERC, but the eye is small, so it's probable that if an outer eyewall consolidates, the small eye would quickly fall apart. NOAA plane is showing a secondary wind max to the SW though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 There's still way to go for an ERC, but the eye is small, so it's probable that if an outer eyewall consolidates, the small eye would quickly fall apart. I agree with this. If you will notice, the outer band is still quite distant from the inner core and is still rotating into the eyewall. Until this outer band consolidates more and begins to starve the inner core/eyewall, we're probably a good 12 hours before any ERC begins. Barring any negatively impacting middle-to-upper atmospheric issues, such as shear or the ingestion of dry air, we should see some more strengthening this afternoon/evening before any ERC begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 NOAA plane is showing a secondary wind max to the SW though. Probably because of that moat shown in MW... I think it will happen, conditions are good for strenghtening/ERC... I'm not sure if we are close for it to happen, or it's gonna be delayed 24hrs+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I'm not sure if we are close for it to happen, or it's gonna be delayed 24hrs+ Yep. It could go RI for 12-24 hrs then ERC, or it could happen in the next 6 hrs. It's next to impossible to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC) Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 14:11Z Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF) Storm Number: 09 Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 13 Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011 Observation Number: 27 A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 13:44Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°13'N 73°39'W (22.2167N 73.65W) B. Center Fix Location: 170 miles (273 km) to the WNW (288°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR). C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 152° at 114kts (From the SSE at ~ 131.2mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (53°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 956mb (28.23 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,447m (8,028ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,419m (7,936ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 114kts (~ 131.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:40Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the southwest quadrant at 13:47Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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