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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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Not sure if this is the appropriate thread for this, but I have just been looking into surge information too. I found these graphics on wunderground that shows the results of the SLOSH surge model on a bunch of areas given a certain strength hurricane. Keep in mind though, these are probably modeled as if the storm is heading for a direct hit and not just paralleling the coast.

http://www.wundergro...MidAtlSurge.asp

I have also been looking up tidal information for the Atlantic City area since I plan on "chasing" there. There will be a new moon so tides will be exacerbated. I saw that the high tide occurs at around 12z Sunday, which will be around the time Irene makes its closest approach to the area.

I'm worried for the Norfolk, Va. Beach, and Yorktown areas, with storm surge and rain. these areas flood with 3 inches of rain. plus, sorry to say it's a very difficult area to evac., lots of poor and military families with little to no transportation. If this hits Norfolk, it's going to bring pain to many many people. I hope the nogaps is right, but I think not ,I'm afraid.

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All the signs are pointing to a Cat 2 on the way up now. Good eye presentation, higher cloud tops, good ventilation, and now dropsondes in the eyewall indicating it's strengthening.

Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding):

- Wind Direction: 125° (from the SE)

- Wind Speed: 98 knots (113 mph)

Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding):

- Wind Direction: 140° (from the SE)

- Wind Speed: 90 knots (104 mph)

- Depth of Sounding: From 698mb to 979mb

Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding:

- Lowest 150m: 159 gpm - 9 gpm (522 geo. feet - 30 geo. feet)

- Wind Direction: 115° (from the ESE)

- Wind Speed: 90 knots (104 mph)

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
200 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2011

...IRENE STRENGTHENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 72.6W
ABOUT 400 MI...650 KM SE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 21.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.6 WEST.  THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN
WOBBLING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT IRENE IS MOVING GENERALLY
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H.  A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TODAY AND OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS WAS 966 MB...28.53 INCHES.

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ok, I think you're nuts, but whatever. I think it's going to be close , but will take the heat of the day to give her that last boost. good talk BTW and I appreciate your maps and pics showing those fronts. Nogaps was out there as well I think, in the begining and has handled that front pretty well. my question is , she's slowed forward motion, so how will that effect interation with the trough?

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Not sure if this is the appropriate thread for this, but I have just been looking into surge information too. I found these graphics on wunderground that shows the results of the SLOSH surge model on a bunch of areas given a certain strength hurricane. Keep in mind though, these are probably modeled as if the storm is heading for a direct hit and not just paralleling the coast.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/MidAtlSurge.asp

I have also been looking up tidal information for the Atlantic City area since I plan on "chasing" there. There will be a new moon so tides will be exacerbated. I saw that the high tide occurs at around 12z Sunday, which will be around the time Irene makes its closest approach to the area.

You are right. Highest tides are Sunday and Monday on the new moon. Flooding is a major threat during these astronomical conditions for the Jersey barrier islands. 25 knot plus persistent E or NE winds alone "on the moon" can cause flooding there as the water will fill the bays but cannot escape.Add 6"+ rain and any increase of wind and there will be major flooding.

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I notice on the later Satellite frames that it is now making the turn from WNW to NW now a bit quicker than expected. That is another reason why I think that could very storm taking track similar to Earl if not maybe even further east.

1. As per the NHC Discussion, it's been wobbling W and then NW all night, with an average motion of WNW. Don't read too much into one wobble.

2. They forecast it to turn NW today, so that would be in line with their forecast.

3. You've made it very clear over many posts that you think the hurricane will recurve and miss-- no need to keep repeating it.

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1. As per the NHC Discussion, it's been wobbling W and then NW all night, with an average motion of WNW. Don't read too much into one wobble.

2. They forecast it to turn NW today, so that would be in line with their forecast.

3. You've made it very clear over many posts that you think the hurricane will recurve and miss-- no need to keep repeating it.

True, let's see how fast it does make complete shift to the NW and how much it tracks NW then that would give better aside from models where the storm would heading. Computers models are not quite as good handling tropical systems like with winter storms.

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Latest extrapolated pressure from the NOAA flight was 957.1mb... another 9mb drop if that turns up on the dropsonde from the last flight.... need to NE pass to see what those max winds are, the N quad isn't cutting it at only 95 knots FL winds.

If this 9mb drop is inidicative of RI (and I think it probably is), the winds usually take time to catch up to the pressure falls.

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Looks like Irene may already developing an outer eyewall, and dry moat. ERC today possible

There's still way to go for an ERC, but the eye is small, so it's probable that if an outer eyewall consolidates, the small eye would quickly fall apart.

7ipjL.jpg

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There's still way to go for an ERC, but the eye is small, so it's probable that if an outer eyewall consolidates, the small eye would quickly fall apart.

I agree with this. If you will notice, the outer band is still quite distant from the inner core and is still rotating into the eyewall. Until this outer band consolidates more and begins to starve the inner core/eyewall, we're probably a good 12 hours before any ERC begins. Barring any negatively impacting middle-to-upper atmospheric issues, such as shear or the ingestion of dry air, we should see some more strengthening this afternoon/evening before any ERC begins.

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NOAA plane is showing a secondary wind max to the SW though.

Probably because of that moat shown in MW... I think it will happen, conditions are good for strenghtening/ERC... I'm not sure if we are close for it to happen, or it's gonna be delayed 24hrs+

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Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)

Transmitted: 24th day of the month at 14:11Z

Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)

Storm Number: 09

Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 13 seeall.png

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011

Observation Number: 27

A. Time of Center Fix: 24th day of the month at 13:44Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°13'N 73°39'W (22.2167N 73.65W) viewmap.png

B. Center Fix Location: 170 miles (273 km) to the WNW (288°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not Available

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 94kts (~ 108.2mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the NE (52°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 152° at 114kts (From the SSE at ~ 131.2mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the NE (53°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 956mb (28.23 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,447m (8,028ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,419m (7,936ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb (if vortex is newer than about mid 90's; see note for more), 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 114kts (~ 131.2mph) in the northeast quadrant at 13:40Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 77kts (~ 88.6mph) in the southwest quadrant at 13:47Z

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