Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Using the Google Earth method of watching recon - looks like it might have gone west from last pass. I don't have the VDM yet though. Yeah, or even a wobble SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah, or even a wobble SW. The next pass will be interesting to see if it's just a quick wobble while the eye was forming or if it's more sustained. Likely just very temporary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 969mb drop from NOAA plane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah, or even a wobble SW. I noticed that too....also, appears Irene has taken a little break from actually moving much....Let's see if this quasi-stall/slow down is short term....if not, look for more changes on the models over the next day or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I noticed that too....also, appears Irene has taken a little break from actually moving much....Let's see if this quasi-stall/slow down is short term....if not, look for more changes on the models over the next day or so.... What are your initial thoughts regarding this? Temporary and related perhaps to the big bursts of convection and eye formation or something more sustained? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Not liking the convective tumor Irene's got going on there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 What are your initial thoughts regarding this? Temporary and related perhaps to the big bursts of convection and eye formation or something more sustained? Temporary, IMO, however, every time this slows down vs. current thinking/models, it changes the timing of all the future interactions with the mid latitude features. It wouldn't be a big deal if she packs up and gets going again, but a large, prolonged slow down now (which hasn't been progged this far south, as far as I've seen) would certainly change some outputs down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Temporary, IMO, however, every time this slows down vs. current thinking/models, it changes the timing of all the future interactions with the mid latitude features. It wouldn't be a big deal if she packs up and gets going again, but a large, prolonged slow down now (which hasn't been progged this far south, as far as I've seen) would certainly change some outputs down the road. Yeah I hear what you're saying. It seems like these slow downs or jogs always tend to happen when there's some nice convection wrapping around or when an eye pops out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Yeah I hear what you're saying. It seems like these slow downs or jogs always tend to happen when there's some nice convection wrapping around or when an eye pops out. We'll see....I don't want to make much out of it yet....just discussing some of the possibilities and any consequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 24, 2011 Author Share Posted August 24, 2011 Raw T# 6.0 Source. ADT, on of the agencies, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Source. ADT, on of the agencies, etc... ADT, yeah, sorry; I thought it was more clear. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt09L.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Just based on what I see...I still see more of a WNW movement than anything...albeit slow. We'll see what happens. I think this is mostly behaving at this point though...wobbling to average...and close to NHC track. Gonna be a long 24-48 hours of watching though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 looks like it is moving a little west on the last few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 when the eye is first popping out on IR, there's going to be a lot of illusions of direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Latest IR shows a very nice new cell developing in the Northwest eyewall along with another one developing in the North eyewall., The convective burst East of the eye is working it's way westward towards the Eastern eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 just north of west movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 just north of west movement. You really can't tell what the movement is based on three fixes, each 7 or 8 miles apart from each other IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Latest IR shows a very nice new cell developing in the Northwest eyewall along with another one developing in the North eyewall., The convective burst East of the eye is working it's way westward towards the Eastern eyewall. I have been using the islands as a way of telling direction. It is much more accurate than using the ocean as your background. It has had alot more of a western progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 No significant changes to the 11pm intensity forecast, still takes the initial 80kt up to a peak of 110kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyinNC Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I have been using the islands as a way of telling direction. It is much more accurate than using the ocean as your background. It has had alot more of a western progression. and which image do you like, I use dvorak to check movement and try to find something besides the fixed grid to judge from as well. also, new eye, and Eye wall replacement cycle can create an optical illution of movement oppsite of actual movement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Day 5 spot is 75kt on top of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 IR looking somewhat messy for the moment, with a dry slot to the north, keeping the Northern eyewall open. However, the Eastern eyewall appears to be trying to cut off a smaller eye in the short term The convective burst to the east is starting to interact with the core, connecting to the eyewall and starting to wrap around the circulation from the NE Quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Continuing along 21.1N, latest fix will be roughly 21.1N (06 or 07 min), and 72.4W In the mean time, the eyewall is contracting, by cutting off part of the northern eyewall (possibly related to the nearly due west motion in the short term) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 IR looking somewhat messy for the moment, with a dry slot to the north, keeping the Northern eyewall open. However, the Eastern eyewall appears to be trying to cut off a smaller eye in the short term The convective burst to the east is starting to interact with the core, connecting to the eyewall and starting to wrap around the circulation from the NE Quad. the dry air downsloping off hispanola is killing the intensification process now....before she at least had the winward passage as a southerly inflow channel to a lesser extent...now ...not so much i think she may "suprise" people and get worse before she gets REALLy GOING tommorrow PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Any thoughts In terms of storm surge up north? Typically the best surge accompanies the RFQ, which looks to stay offshore or graze SE Mass. Wave heights will be high all along the coast, but surge not so much along VA, MD, DE and NJ, imo, since Irene will be paralleling the coast in those areas. Could be pretty bad for Providence harbor though, especially if Irene really blows up in size like it's anticipated to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Any thoughts In terms of storm surge up north? Not sure if this is the appropriate thread for this, but I have just been looking into surge information too. I found these graphics on wunderground that shows the results of the SLOSH surge model on a bunch of areas given a certain strength hurricane. Keep in mind though, these are probably modeled as if the storm is heading for a direct hit and not just paralleling the coast. http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/MidAtlSurge.asp I have also been looking up tidal information for the Atlantic City area since I plan on "chasing" there. There will be a new moon so tides will be exacerbated. I saw that the high tide occurs at around 12z Sunday, which will be around the time Irene makes its closest approach to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Typically the best surge accompanies the RFQ, which looks to stay offshore or graze SE Mass. Wave heights will be high all along the coast, but surge not so much along VA, MD, DE and NJ, imo, since Irene will be paralleling the coast in those areas. Could be pretty bad for Providence harbor though, especially if Irene really blows up in size like it's anticipated to. looking at the current GFS model (and i will be seeing out others), if this storm goes a hair left of its track and follows between it and the NHC track, RI is in big trouble, sort of like what happened in Halifax with Hurricane Juan. Also, communities in the Bay of Fundy could also be looking for a hell of a surge (on top of the normal 30' tidal range at the top end) St John and the Minas shoreline of NS as well as maybe the Kennebecasis Valley could be in trouble with that as well. but that's out 5+ days, so we got to see how the short-term goes first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 24 AUG 2011 Time : 031500 UTC Lat : 21:10:00 N Lon : 72:09:49 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 5.4 / 954.1mb/ 99.6kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 5.4 5.8 6.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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