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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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I noticed that too....also, appears Irene has taken a little break from actually moving much....Let's see if this quasi-stall/slow down is short term....if not, look for more changes on the models over the next day or so....

What are your initial thoughts regarding this? Temporary and related perhaps to the big bursts of convection and eye formation or something more sustained?

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What are your initial thoughts regarding this? Temporary and related perhaps to the big bursts of convection and eye formation or something more sustained?

Temporary, IMO, however, every time this slows down vs. current thinking/models, it changes the timing of all the future interactions with the mid latitude features. It wouldn't be a big deal if she packs up and gets going again, but a large, prolonged slow down now (which hasn't been progged this far south, as far as I've seen) would certainly change some outputs down the road.

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Temporary, IMO, however, every time this slows down vs. current thinking/models, it changes the timing of all the future interactions with the mid latitude features. It wouldn't be a big deal if she packs up and gets going again, but a large, prolonged slow down now (which hasn't been progged this far south, as far as I've seen) would certainly change some outputs down the road.

Yeah I hear what you're saying. It seems like these slow downs or jogs always tend to happen when there's some nice convection wrapping around or when an eye pops out.

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Latest IR shows a very nice new cell developing in the Northwest eyewall along with another one developing in the North eyewall., The convective burst East of the eye is working it's way westward towards the Eastern eyewall.

I have been using the islands as a way of telling direction. It is much more accurate than using the ocean as your background. It has had alot more of a western progression.

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I have been using the islands as a way of telling direction. It is much more accurate than using the ocean as your background. It has had alot more of a western progression.

and which image do you like, I use dvorak to check movement and try to find something besides the fixed grid to judge from as well. also, new eye, and Eye wall replacement cycle can create an optical illution of movement oppsite of actual movement..

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IR looking somewhat messy for the moment, with a dry slot to the north, keeping the Northern eyewall open. However, the Eastern eyewall appears to be trying to cut off a smaller eye in the short term The convective burst to the east is starting to interact with the core, connecting to the eyewall and starting to wrap around the circulation from the NE Quad.

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IR looking somewhat messy for the moment, with a dry slot to the north, keeping the Northern eyewall open. However, the Eastern eyewall appears to be trying to cut off a smaller eye in the short term The convective burst to the east is starting to interact with the core, connecting to the eyewall and starting to wrap around the circulation from the NE Quad.

the dry air downsloping off hispanola is killing the intensification process now....before she at least had the winward passage as a southerly inflow channel to a lesser extent...now ...not so much

i think she may "suprise" people and get worse before she gets REALLy GOING tommorrow PM

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Any thoughts In terms of storm surge up north?

Typically the best surge accompanies the RFQ, which looks to stay offshore or graze SE Mass. Wave heights will be high all along the coast, but surge not so much along VA, MD, DE and NJ, imo, since Irene will be paralleling the coast in those areas. Could be pretty bad for Providence harbor though, especially if Irene really blows up in size like it's anticipated to.

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Any thoughts In terms of storm surge up north?

Not sure if this is the appropriate thread for this, but I have just been looking into surge information too. I found these graphics on wunderground that shows the results of the SLOSH surge model on a bunch of areas given a certain strength hurricane. Keep in mind though, these are probably modeled as if the storm is heading for a direct hit and not just paralleling the coast.

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/MidAtlSurge.asp

I have also been looking up tidal information for the Atlantic City area since I plan on "chasing" there. There will be a new moon so tides will be exacerbated. I saw that the high tide occurs at around 12z Sunday, which will be around the time Irene makes its closest approach to the area.

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Typically the best surge accompanies the RFQ, which looks to stay offshore or graze SE Mass. Wave heights will be high all along the coast, but surge not so much along VA, MD, DE and NJ, imo, since Irene will be paralleling the coast in those areas. Could be pretty bad for Providence harbor though, especially if Irene really blows up in size like it's anticipated to.

looking at the current GFS model (and i will be seeing out others), if this storm goes a hair left of its track and follows between it and the NHC track, RI is in big trouble, sort of like what happened in Halifax with Hurricane Juan. Also, communities in the Bay of Fundy could also be looking for a hell of a surge (on top of the normal 30' tidal range at the top end) St John and the Minas shoreline of NS as well as maybe the Kennebecasis Valley could be in trouble with that as well. but that's out 5+ days, so we got to see how the short-term goes first.

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