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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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looks like west to me

Why would go with the MMIC when visible satellite is available? The visible is best for seeing a storm in its purest form. The visible clearly showed a WNW motion. There "may" have been on little small wobble west but overall WNW.

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Very interesting discussion from the HPC this afternoon...

...AFTERNOON FINALS...

PROG PRODUCTION AND PMDEPD INTERUPTED BY EAST COAST EARTHQUAKE AND

BUILDING EVACUATION.

IRENE TRACK ADJUSTED TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE/FORECAST. LATEST AFTN

GLOBAL MODEL BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SOLUTION TRACK WITH RIGHT

MODELS CMC/GFS COMING LEFT AND ECMWF/UKMET COMING RIGHT. NHC TRACK

SHIFTED EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME THIS HAS ALL THE LOOK OF A VERY

DEEP DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH TRACK AND POSSIBLE INTENSITY TO

THAT OF THE GREAT HURRICANE OF 1944. SEE NHC

FORECAST/WATCHS/WARNINGS ALONG WITH NWS LOCAL OFFICE

WARNINGS/STATEMENTS.

Eh, different starting position may result in coincidental tracks mid way through the storm cycle

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It has that "I'm gonna get stronger tonight" look at sunset...

post-67-0-02799200-1314139202.jpg

im in.. but as i said to adam last night im apt to call for RI at evening every evening. :P

not sure how much any dry air might continue to be an issue but finally pulling further away from hispaniola can only be a good thing. in the last 3 hrs or so the fanning out of clouds in the central part of the system has expanded markedly with the convection.

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im in.. but as i said to adam last night im apt to call for RI at evening every evening. :P

not sure how much any dry air might continue to be an issue but finally pulling further away from hispaniola can only be a good thing. in the last 3 hrs or so the fanning out of clouds in the central part of the system has expanded markedly with the convection.

NOAA-P3 just did a center pass... didn't capture the NE quadrant but the latest pressure reading is 969mb from dropsonde with 10+ knot winds so its likely a mb lower than that. Pretty significant drop in the last 3 hours.

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Agree that it looks primed to burp out most of the dry air and really floor it over the next 12 hours. I mean, it only realistically has another six or seven degrees if we want a fundamentally mature, intense storm. Once it gets north of 30N/JAX-ish, it should have already peaked or be very close to peaking. If it doesn't really start to crank tonight, then I'm not going to be especially confident in a peak higher than low-end Cat 3, since it's just going to keep gaining latitude from here on out–gradually putting it over increasingly cooler waters and decreasing the chance of a solid period of RI. However, the low appears to be quickly deepening at this point, so we'll see what happens tonight.

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Agree that it looks primed to burp out most of the dry air and really floor it over the next 12 hours. I mean, it only realistically has another six or seven degrees if we want a fundamentally mature, intense storm. Once it gets north of 30N/JAX-ish, it should have already peaked or be very close to peaking. If it doesn't really start to crank tonight, then I'm not going to be especially confident in a peak higher than low-end Cat 3, since it's just going to keep gaining latitude from here on out–gradually putting over increasingly cooler waters and decreasing the chance of a solid period of RI. However, the low appears to be quickly deepening at this point, so we'll see what happens tonight.

water temps are 80-85 all the way up to chesapeake bay off Norfolk. then gulf stream stays warm if it swings back out, BUT on the proposed track it's over enough water to hold a cat two until it crosses MD. I don't want to hear about loss, I've watched to many stay and gain over the glades, and up rivers ask the people of Arcadia Fl if Charlie lost it's strength going up the river. Ask Orlando area. water is water and if it's warm, it's fuel. I'm not as smart as you guys, but I've seen enough over the years with my own eyes to know this. plus, the models aren't seeing the second trough right imo, a cat 3 storm is gonna take that little trough and push it out of the way for a while, I think the track with landfall in NC ? sc boarder , up 95 and back ots above LI is probably right, It makes me sick to say it and I hope that trough is stronger than it looks to be, if so, it might save NY. ok, I'll shut up and let you guys tear me to bits now. as soon as I can find the water temp chart again, and figure out how to post it on here I will.

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It has that "I'm gonna get stronger tonight" look at sunset...

im in.. but as i said to adam last night im apt to call for RI at evening every evening. :P

not sure how much any dry air might continue to be an issue but finally pulling further away from hispaniola can only be a good thing. in the last 3 hrs or so the fanning out of clouds in the central part of the system has expanded markedly with the convection.

Somewhere (and of course I can't find it now) there is a paper that references the "number 6" shape that some hurricanes take on as a precursor to rapid intensification.

I guess we can wait and see if Irene does it or not. She sure does have that number 6 shape.

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water temps are 80-85 all the way up to chesapeake bay off Norfolk. then gulf stream stays warm if it swings back out, BUT on the proposed track it's over enough water to hold a cat two until it crosses MD.

Right. I'm not saying the waters aren't warm enough to sustain a moderately strong hurricane all the way up the gulf stream. I just think we have one or two nights for the storm to bomb out, or it'll start losing time for it to reach its maximum potential.

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BULLETIN

HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

800 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...IRENE BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...21.1N 71.8W

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND

ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES

969 MB vs 981 MB yesterday !

HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

750 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE

THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE

WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH...155 KM/H. DETAILS WILL

FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 815 PM AST...0015 UTC.

SUMMARY OF 750 PM AST...2350 UTC...INFORMATION

--------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.7N 68.7W

ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND

ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

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weatherunderground has a few stations in the turks/caicos

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPROVIDE8

i don't see her "bombing until tommorrow noonish" when she gets far enough away from the mtns. of hispanola to get a NICE DEEP MOIST southerly INFLOW channel. at her current relatively slow speed it will probably take 15 hours for any southery inflow to be coming from somewhere unimpeded by hisp. mountains.....then BOOM!

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