Sunny and Warm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 1944 Hurricane From Grothar in the Philly thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It has that "I'm gonna get stronger tonight" look at sunset... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hookemfins Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 looks like west to me Why would go with the MMIC when visible satellite is available? The visible is best for seeing a storm in its purest form. The visible clearly showed a WNW motion. There "may" have been on little small wobble west but overall WNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 People quote the 1944 Hurricane for this one another analog might be the 1821 Hurricane too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Very interesting discussion from the HPC this afternoon... ...AFTERNOON FINALS... PROG PRODUCTION AND PMDEPD INTERUPTED BY EAST COAST EARTHQUAKE AND BUILDING EVACUATION. IRENE TRACK ADJUSTED TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE/FORECAST. LATEST AFTN GLOBAL MODEL BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SOLUTION TRACK WITH RIGHT MODELS CMC/GFS COMING LEFT AND ECMWF/UKMET COMING RIGHT. NHC TRACK SHIFTED EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME THIS HAS ALL THE LOOK OF A VERY DEEP DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH TRACK AND POSSIBLE INTENSITY TO THAT OF THE GREAT HURRICANE OF 1944. SEE NHC FORECAST/WATCHS/WARNINGS ALONG WITH NWS LOCAL OFFICE WARNINGS/STATEMENTS. Eh, different starting position may result in coincidental tracks mid way through the storm cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It has that "I'm gonna get stronger tonight" look at sunset... im in.. but as i said to adam last night im apt to call for RI at evening every evening. not sure how much any dry air might continue to be an issue but finally pulling further away from hispaniola can only be a good thing. in the last 3 hrs or so the fanning out of clouds in the central part of the system has expanded markedly with the convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 im in.. but as i said to adam last night im apt to call for RI at evening every evening. not sure how much any dry air might continue to be an issue but finally pulling further away from hispaniola can only be a good thing. in the last 3 hrs or so the fanning out of clouds in the central part of the system has expanded markedly with the convection. NOAA-P3 just did a center pass... didn't capture the NE quadrant but the latest pressure reading is 969mb from dropsonde with 10+ knot winds so its likely a mb lower than that. Pretty significant drop in the last 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Agree that it looks primed to burp out most of the dry air and really floor it over the next 12 hours. I mean, it only realistically has another six or seven degrees if we want a fundamentally mature, intense storm. Once it gets north of 30N/JAX-ish, it should have already peaked or be very close to peaking. If it doesn't really start to crank tonight, then I'm not going to be especially confident in a peak higher than low-end Cat 3, since it's just going to keep gaining latitude from here on out–gradually putting it over increasingly cooler waters and decreasing the chance of a solid period of RI. However, the low appears to be quickly deepening at this point, so we'll see what happens tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 107mph gust in the Turks? Verified? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunnyinNC Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Agree that it looks primed to burp out most of the dry air and really floor it over the next 12 hours. I mean, it only realistically has another six or seven degrees if we want a fundamentally mature, intense storm. Once it gets north of 30N/JAX-ish, it should have already peaked or be very close to peaking. If it doesn't really start to crank tonight, then I'm not going to be especially confident in a peak higher than low-end Cat 3, since it's just going to keep gaining latitude from here on out–gradually putting over increasingly cooler waters and decreasing the chance of a solid period of RI. However, the low appears to be quickly deepening at this point, so we'll see what happens tonight. water temps are 80-85 all the way up to chesapeake bay off Norfolk. then gulf stream stays warm if it swings back out, BUT on the proposed track it's over enough water to hold a cat two until it crosses MD. I don't want to hear about loss, I've watched to many stay and gain over the glades, and up rivers ask the people of Arcadia Fl if Charlie lost it's strength going up the river. Ask Orlando area. water is water and if it's warm, it's fuel. I'm not as smart as you guys, but I've seen enough over the years with my own eyes to know this. plus, the models aren't seeing the second trough right imo, a cat 3 storm is gonna take that little trough and push it out of the way for a while, I think the track with landfall in NC ? sc boarder , up 95 and back ots above LI is probably right, It makes me sick to say it and I hope that trough is stronger than it looks to be, if so, it might save NY. ok, I'll shut up and let you guys tear me to bits now. as soon as I can find the water temp chart again, and figure out how to post it on here I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metagraphica Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It has that "I'm gonna get stronger tonight" look at sunset... im in.. but as i said to adam last night im apt to call for RI at evening every evening. not sure how much any dry air might continue to be an issue but finally pulling further away from hispaniola can only be a good thing. in the last 3 hrs or so the fanning out of clouds in the central part of the system has expanded markedly with the convection. Somewhere (and of course I can't find it now) there is a paper that references the "number 6" shape that some hurricanes take on as a precursor to rapid intensification. I guess we can wait and see if Irene does it or not. She sure does have that number 6 shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 We got an eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Presentation on IR has become more circular in the most recent frames, also appears to have finally moved far enough away from Hispaniola so that downsloping is less of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 water temps are 80-85 all the way up to chesapeake bay off Norfolk. then gulf stream stays warm if it swings back out, BUT on the proposed track it's over enough water to hold a cat two until it crosses MD. Right. I'm not saying the waters aren't warm enough to sustain a moderately strong hurricane all the way up the gulf stream. I just think we have one or two nights for the storm to bomb out, or it'll start losing time for it to reach its maximum potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe1946 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 800 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011 ...IRENE BEARING DOWN ON THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.1N 71.8W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.61 INCHES 969 MB vs 981 MB yesterday ! HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 750 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011 ...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH...155 KM/H. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 815 PM AST...0015 UTC. SUMMARY OF 750 PM AST...2350 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 68.7W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 97 knot FL winds coming into the center from the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 weatherunderground has a few stations in the turks/caicos http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=IPROVIDE8 i don't see her "bombing until tommorrow noonish" when she gets far enough away from the mtns. of hispanola to get a NICE DEEP MOIST southerly INFLOW channel. at her current relatively slow speed it will probably take 15 hours for any southery inflow to be coming from somewhere unimpeded by hisp. mountains.....then BOOM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Really looking nice now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 NOAA: 967.7 USAF: 964.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 I cannot see how that alleged 107 gust report is accurate. Both Wunderground stations reporting in the Turks & Caicos have had max gusts in the 65-70 mph range w/50 sustained. Eye would appear to miss North Caicos and Providenciales to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like RI is starting, this is going to be very bad for the Bahamas, the whole country is gonna get a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Impressive 11C difference in interior/exterior eye temperature on the NOAA VDM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Looks like RI is starting, this is going to be very bad for the Bahamas, the whole country is gonna get a good hit. 2004 Frances was the only post 1900 cane to impact the entire Bahama Archipelago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Now lets see how long and how low this deepens. This is my most favorite stage of a hurricane..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Why is TWC still reporting it as a Cat 1? Do they know better than the NHC? because it is still cat 1 http://www.nhc.noaa....l/232353.shtml? Edit: I think they corrected it, but for a minute they were still saying 100 mph/cat 2 in the public advisory - this is why there may be some confusion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Clearest eye I've seen in Irene thus far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 FWIW, ADT now recognizes satellite imagery as an "EYE" scene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 967.6mb from NOAA and 965.9mb from AF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2011 Share Posted August 24, 2011 Using the Google Earth method of watching recon - looks like it might have gone west from last pass. I don't have the VDM yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.