wxmeddler Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 16:19Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302) Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011 Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 8 Observation Number: 11 A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 15:56:00Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°35'N 71°05'W (20.5833N 71.0833W) B. Center Fix Location: 61 miles (98 km) to the S (177°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR). C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,909m (9,544ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the W (273°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 357° at 58kts (From the N at ~ 66.7mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the W (273°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 978mb (28.88 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,116m (10,223ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,105m (10,187ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Wind Outbound: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the east quadrant at 16:02:30Z Maximum Flight Level Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the east quadrant at 16:02:30Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SFC CTR NOT VISIBLE BKN CLDS BLO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 With the shear, not surprising, but eyewall open SW. Moving slowly right now, net gain of 4 min North (.067 Latitude), and 8 min West (.133 longitude) in roughly 80 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 What is this island? I can't find the name of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 What is this island? I can't find the name of it. Great Inagua. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Eye really becoming pronounced now on visible: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Great Inagua. Ike blasted Inagua as a Cat 4 http://www.wundergro...tstamp=&page=10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Eye really becoming pronounced now on visible: http://www.ssd.noaa....2/loop-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Very slow movement to the NW right now, SW eyewall still opened 000 URNT12 KNHC 231730 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 23/17:10:50Z B. 20 deg 38 min N [Previous was 20 deg 35 min N] 071 deg 09 min W [Previous was 071 deg 05 min W] C. 700 mb 2898 m D. 68 kt E. 043 deg 13 nm F. 132 deg 65 kt G. 043 deg 13 nm H. 978 mb I. 9 C / 3114 m J. 15 C / 3109 m K. 11 C / NA L. OPEN SW M. C25 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF302 0809A IRENE OB 17 MAX FL WIND 69 KT E QUAD 16:02:10Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 67 KT N QUAD 17:17:00Z SFC NOT VISIBLE BKN CLDS BLO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 17:30Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302) Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011 Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 8 Observation Number: 17 A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 17:10:50Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°38'N 71°09'W (20.6333N 71.15W) B. Center Fix Location: 57 miles (92 km) to the S (181°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR). C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,898m (9,508ft) at 700mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 132° at 65kts (From the SE at ~ 74.8mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 978mb (28.88 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,114m (10,217ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,109m (10,200ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 700mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the east quadrant at 16:02:10Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the north quadrant at 17:17:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SFC NOT VISIBLE BKN CLDS BLO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hookemfins Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Definitly taking on more of a W movement in the last several frames, could be good news if you want a US landfall http://www.ssd.noaa....2/flash-wv.html Disagree about the W movement. Its more of an optical illusion from the eye shape. Irene appears to be on a steady WNW course. In fact, the plane is showing more of a nudge to the right, 300 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Eye is becoming better defined on visible Showing up on IR as well. The recent near drift in motion is likely a function of the eye organizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Extrap down a decent amount 974.0 to 971.7 in 80 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 74kt at flight level SE quad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 000 URNT12 KNHC 231848 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 23/18:28:20Z B. 20 deg 44 min N [Previous was 20 deg 38 min N] 071 deg 14 min W [Previous was 071 deg 09 min W] C. 700 mb 2883 m D. 66 kt E. 296 deg 13 nm F. 010 deg 65 kt G. 296 deg 15 nm H. 976 mb I. 11 C / 3106 m J. 16 C / 3114 m K. 9 C / NA L. CLOSED M. E06/30/20 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 2 nm P. AF302 0809A IRENE OB 23 MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 74 KT SE QUAD 18:32:00Z Dropsonde was with 14kt at the surface, eye is Elliptical for now so still organizing, but it's now close. The last few vortex messages also indicated the surface center was not visible, but this is no longer the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It is probably stronger than 976 mb. That was with 16 mph wind. Either way, some steady strengthening should occur now as the eyewall is now closed and begins to pull away Hispanola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Man, Puerto Rico has been slammed with rain, and it's STILL raining. GRLevel3 estimates up to 19" in places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 looks like west to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 looks like west to me Yeah, it looks W to me, too-- almost like it's been following the contour of Hispaniola's N coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Very interesting discussion from the HPC this afternoon... ...AFTERNOON FINALS... PROG PRODUCTION AND PMDEPD INTERUPTED BY EAST COAST EARTHQUAKE AND BUILDING EVACUATION. IRENE TRACK ADJUSTED TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE/FORECAST. LATEST AFTN GLOBAL MODEL BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SOLUTION TRACK WITH RIGHT MODELS CMC/GFS COMING LEFT AND ECMWF/UKMET COMING RIGHT. NHC TRACK SHIFTED EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME THIS HAS ALL THE LOOK OF A VERY DEEP DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH TRACK AND POSSIBLE INTENSITY TO THAT OF THE GREAT HURRICANE OF 1944. SEE NHC FORECAST/WATCHS/WARNINGS ALONG WITH NWS LOCAL OFFICE WARNINGS/STATEMENTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Very interesting discussion from the HPC this afternoon... ...AFTERNOON FINALS... PROG PRODUCTION AND PMDEPD INTERUPTED BY EAST COAST EARTHQUAKE AND BUILDING EVACUATION. IRENE TRACK ADJUSTED TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE/FORECAST. LATEST AFTN GLOBAL MODEL BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SOLUTION TRACK WITH RIGHT MODELS CMC/GFS COMING LEFT AND ECMWF/UKMET COMING RIGHT. NHC TRACK SHIFTED EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME THIS HAS ALL THE LOOK OF A VERY DEEP DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH TRACK AND POSSIBLE INTENSITY TO THAT OF THE GREAT HURRICANE OF 1944. SEE NHC FORECAST/WATCHS/WARNINGS ALONG WITH NWS LOCAL OFFICE WARNINGS/STATEMENTS. what was the actual track on that one? just curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 1944 Hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 what was the actual track on that one? just curious. Eastern LI CT RI border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Down to 80kt, not too surprising because Recon hasn't found much to support 85kt at the surface since it found 106kt at 850mb last night. Still forecasted 110 kt peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 1944 Hurricane the latest models i am seeing yea show just west of that, but yea i can mentally extrapolate it. if that were to happen again, i'd be watching out from the NJ coast to Martha's Vineyard, Cape Cod, and maybe even a pretty good lick to down-east Maine, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 That 1944 track looks like a good possibility for Irene, just have to pay attention to her overall motion for the next 12 hours or so. Does anyone else get the feeling after seeing some of the latest satellite pics that she may be about to go boom again? Or at the very least have a period of more strengthening? Some deep convection trying to wrap back around that center again and the convection is trying to expand and scour out some of the dry air she suck in earlier off Hispanola. I ask since I am not the tropical expert when it comes to my background. Just know some of the basic physics... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 That 1944 track looks like a good possibility for Irene, just have to pay attention to her overall motion for the next 12 hours or so. Does anyone else get the feeling after seeing some of the latest satellite pics that she may be about to go boom again? Or at the very least have a period of more strengthening? Some deep convection trying to wrap back around that center again and the convection is trying to expand and scour out some of the dry air she suck in earlier off Hispanola. I ask since I am not the tropical expert when it comes to my background. Just know some of the basic physics... Yes. Microwave presentation is becoming increasingly better and CDO has rapidly expanded again in the last few hours. Looks like it will be a long night in the SE Bahamas and Turks/Caicos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011 ...IRENE LASHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 71.5W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Not sure whether to post this here or in models...but anyway...I took a look at all MAJOR AUGUST hurricanes since 1900 that moved through a 5X5 degree box just north of the Bahamas that essentially matches the NHC cone in that area. There were 8 hurricanes moving northwest or north through this area - interestingly, none made it west of about 78W. 2 were complete fish, 2 hit the Canadian maritimes after brushing Cape Cod/Nantucket, and 3 hit the CONUS (Bonnie, Connie (1955) and Fran). The angle that this is coming in from though is pretty unique...most were on more of a NW trajectory rather than the NNW Irene is forecast to be on in this area. Just some interesting climo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Where can I go for this...it's what I've been looking for, but can't find a link. TIA! http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tc/2011_09L/webManager/mainpage.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Yes. Microwave presentation is becoming increasingly better and CDO has rapidly expanded again in the last few hours. Looks like it will be a long night in the SE Bahamas and Turks/Caicos. Kinda agree... I do think we should see some intensification this evening as the storm is pulling far enough away to no longer be negatively impacted by Hispaniola. Sure we have a bit of westerly shear, but it has shown no signs of getting into the core, and indeed the core is getter better defined per the most recent microwave. Major hurricane is looking more likely sooner than later in my opnion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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