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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 16:19Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011

Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 8

Observation Number: 11

A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 15:56:00Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°35'N 71°05'W (20.5833N 71.0833W)

B. Center Fix Location: 61 miles (98 km) to the S (177°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,909m (9,544ft) at 700mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 58kts (~ 66.7mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the W (273°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 357° at 58kts (From the N at ~ 66.7mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the W (273°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 978mb (28.88 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,116m (10,223ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,105m (10,187ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 22 nautical miles (25 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 700mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Wind Outbound: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the east quadrant at 16:02:30Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the east quadrant at 16:02:30Z

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

SFC CTR NOT VISIBLE

BKN CLDS BLO

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Very slow movement to the NW right now, SW eyewall still opened

000

URNT12 KNHC 231730

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 23/17:10:50Z

B. 20 deg 38 min N [Previous was 20 deg 35 min N]

071 deg 09 min W [Previous was 071 deg 05 min W]

C. 700 mb 2898 m

D. 68 kt

E. 043 deg 13 nm

F. 132 deg 65 kt

G. 043 deg 13 nm

H. 978 mb

I. 9 C / 3114 m

J. 15 C / 3109 m

K. 11 C / NA

L. OPEN SW

M. C25

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF302 0809A IRENE OB 17

MAX FL WIND 69 KT E QUAD 16:02:10Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 67 KT N QUAD 17:17:00Z

SFC NOT VISIBLE

BKN CLDS BLO

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 17:30Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011

Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 8

Observation Number: 17

A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 17:10:50Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°38'N 71°09'W (20.6333N 71.15W)

B. Center Fix Location: 57 miles (92 km) to the S (181°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,898m (9,508ft) at 700mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 68kts (~ 78.3mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 132° at 65kts (From the SE at ~ 74.8mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NE (43°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 978mb (28.88 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,114m (10,217ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,109m (10,200ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest

M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 700mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 69kts (~ 79.4mph) in the east quadrant at 16:02:10Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the north quadrant at 17:17:00Z

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

SFC NOT VISIBLE

BKN CLDS BLO

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000

URNT12 KNHC 231848

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 23/18:28:20Z

B. 20 deg 44 min N [Previous was 20 deg 38 min N]

071 deg 14 min W [Previous was 071 deg 09 min W]

C. 700 mb 2883 m

D. 66 kt

E. 296 deg 13 nm

F. 010 deg 65 kt

G. 296 deg 15 nm

H. 976 mb

I. 11 C / 3106 m

J. 16 C / 3114 m

K. 9 C / NA

L. CLOSED

M. E06/30/20

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF302 0809A IRENE OB 23

MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 74 KT SE QUAD 18:32:00Z

Dropsonde was with 14kt at the surface, eye is Elliptical for now so still organizing, but it's now close. The last few vortex messages also indicated the surface center was not visible, but this is no longer the case.

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Very interesting discussion from the HPC this afternoon...

...AFTERNOON FINALS...

PROG PRODUCTION AND PMDEPD INTERUPTED BY EAST COAST EARTHQUAKE AND

BUILDING EVACUATION.

IRENE TRACK ADJUSTED TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE/FORECAST. LATEST AFTN

GLOBAL MODEL BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SOLUTION TRACK WITH RIGHT

MODELS CMC/GFS COMING LEFT AND ECMWF/UKMET COMING RIGHT. NHC TRACK

SHIFTED EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME THIS HAS ALL THE LOOK OF A VERY

DEEP DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH TRACK AND POSSIBLE INTENSITY TO

THAT OF THE GREAT HURRICANE OF 1944. SEE NHC

FORECAST/WATCHS/WARNINGS ALONG WITH NWS LOCAL OFFICE

WARNINGS/STATEMENTS.

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Very interesting discussion from the HPC this afternoon...

...AFTERNOON FINALS...

PROG PRODUCTION AND PMDEPD INTERUPTED BY EAST COAST EARTHQUAKE AND

BUILDING EVACUATION.

IRENE TRACK ADJUSTED TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE/FORECAST. LATEST AFTN

GLOBAL MODEL BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON SOLUTION TRACK WITH RIGHT

MODELS CMC/GFS COMING LEFT AND ECMWF/UKMET COMING RIGHT. NHC TRACK

SHIFTED EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME THIS HAS ALL THE LOOK OF A VERY

DEEP DANGEROUS HURRICANE WITH TRACK AND POSSIBLE INTENSITY TO

THAT OF THE GREAT HURRICANE OF 1944. SEE NHC

FORECAST/WATCHS/WARNINGS ALONG WITH NWS LOCAL OFFICE

WARNINGS/STATEMENTS.

what was the actual track on that one? just curious.

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1944 Hurricane

the latest models i am seeing yea show just west of that, but yea i can mentally extrapolate it. if that were to happen again, i'd be watching out from the NJ coast to Martha's Vineyard, Cape Cod, and maybe even a pretty good lick to down-east Maine, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. :(

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That 1944 track looks like a good possibility for Irene, just have to pay attention to her overall motion for the next 12 hours or so.

Does anyone else get the feeling after seeing some of the latest satellite pics that she may be about to go boom again? Or at the very least have a period of more strengthening? Some deep convection trying to wrap back around that center again and the convection is trying to expand and scour out some of the dry air she suck in earlier off Hispanola. I ask since I am not the tropical expert when it comes to my background. Just know some of the basic physics...

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That 1944 track looks like a good possibility for Irene, just have to pay attention to her overall motion for the next 12 hours or so.

Does anyone else get the feeling after seeing some of the latest satellite pics that she may be about to go boom again? Or at the very least have a period of more strengthening? Some deep convection trying to wrap back around that center again and the convection is trying to expand and scour out some of the dry air she suck in earlier off Hispanola. I ask since I am not the tropical expert when it comes to my background. Just know some of the basic physics...

Yes. Microwave presentation is becoming increasingly better and CDO has rapidly expanded again in the last few hours. Looks like it will be a long night in the SE Bahamas and Turks/Caicos.

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HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

500 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011

...IRENE LASHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.9N 71.5W

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF GRAND TURK ISLAND

ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

post-32-0-15689400-1314133614.gif

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Not sure whether to post this here or in models...but anyway...I took a look at all MAJOR AUGUST hurricanes since 1900 that moved through a 5X5 degree box just north of the Bahamas that essentially matches the NHC cone in that area. There were 8 hurricanes moving northwest or north through this area - interestingly, none made it west of about 78W. 2 were complete fish, 2 hit the Canadian maritimes after brushing Cape Cod/Nantucket, and 3 hit the CONUS (Bonnie, Connie (1955) and Fran). The angle that this is coming in from though is pretty unique...most were on more of a NW trajectory rather than the NNW Irene is forecast to be on in this area.

Just some interesting climo...

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Yes. Microwave presentation is becoming increasingly better and CDO has rapidly expanded again in the last few hours. Looks like it will be a long night in the SE Bahamas and Turks/Caicos.

Kinda agree... I do think we should see some intensification this evening as the storm is pulling far enough away to no longer be negatively impacted by Hispaniola. Sure we have a bit of westerly shear, but it has shown no signs of getting into the core, and indeed the core is getter better defined per the most recent microwave. Major hurricane is looking more likely sooner than later in my opnion.

e0rkpi.jpg

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