Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 i guess im just a doubter that it would miss nc and do anything other than clip/brush the cape given the setup. perhaps i've just never seen it happen so it's harder to believe. Not sure I disagree with you there - I just also intimated/ that at some point this would probably turn right pretty hard up this way. If it were not for the flow being anomalously slow around Cape H, it would happen though. Many upper MA/NE impactors missed and/or just barely clipped Cape H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 MODEL THREAD: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 83kt at 700mb NE quad, unfortunately though the SFMR is no longer working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Made it, now North of Hispaniola. Net gain from the last fix 9 min North (.15 latitude), 14 min West (.233 longitude) 000 URNT12 KNHC 230429 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 23/04:17:30Z B. 20 deg 00 min N 069 deg 25 min W C. 700 mb 2933 m D. NA E. NA F. 138 deg 83 kt G. 050 deg 14 nm H. 980 mb I. 9 C / 3039 m J. 16 C / 3051 m K. NA / NA L. OPEN SE M. C15 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF303 0709A IRENE OB 17 MAX FL WIND 83 KT NE QUAD 04:09:50Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Though partially open in the SE, it's a smaller eye. Made it, now North of Hispaniola. 000 URNT12 KNHC 230429 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 23/04:17:30Z B. 20 deg 00 min N 069 deg 25 min W C. 700 mb 2933 m D. NA E. NA F. 138 deg 83 kt G. 050 deg 14 nm H. 980 mb I. 9 C / 3039 m J. 16 C / 3051 m K. NA / NA L. OPEN SE M. C15 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF303 0709A IRENE OB 17 MAX FL WIND 83 KT NE QUAD 04:09:50Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Looks like it is up to roughly 20.1N now (2006N minute format) with the latest fix. 77kt flight level winds in the SE quad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Eye expanding again 000 URNT12 KNHC 230546 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 23/05:18:00Z B. 20 deg 06 min N 069 deg 38 min W C. 700 mb 2942 m D. 59 kt E. 260 deg 11 nm F. 009 deg 47 kt G. 272 deg 52 nm H. 980 mb I. 8 C / 3052 m J. 19 C / 3045 m K. NA / NA L. OPEN W M. C24 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF303 0709A IRENE OB 22 MAX FL WIND 83 KT NE QUAD 04:09:50Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 75 KT E QUAD 05:30:30Z 980mb was with 22kt winds, so they went with 978mb for the advisory. 2am advisory. Forgot to remove "on" from the copy/paste DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON LATER TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Interaction of the Southerly Inflow winds with the high peaks of Hispaniola seems to be having some effect on Irene, still 100mph and 978mb moving more due west lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Recon is at mission altitude now. Also looks like there are some hints of an eye trying to pop out on the visible this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Looks like Irene is ingesting another large dose of dry air. Doesn't help that for at least the time being, shear is up to 15kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Looks like Irene is ingesting another large dose of dry air. Doesn't help that for at least the time being, shear is up to 15kt yes, getting dry air off of Hispaniola this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Holding it's own. By tomorrow Irene should be free of any Hispaniola influences and could get into a strengthening cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 From 700mb, 67kt in the SE Quad, SFMR looks to be a reliable 62kt in the SE quad, extrap pressure 976.4mb, center just a tad north of 20.5N, a tad East of 71.0W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
apm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 It seems the eye is now faintly visible on the latest visible shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 NW quad from 700mb, 68kt max flight level, unflagged 75kt from SFMR, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 71.0W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES Max winds expected to reach 110kt now, instead of 115kt New track goes into central North Carolina, and up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Arc clouds ejecting out of Irene again. Taking a pretty big hit from dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Nice cirrus outflow gave way to another slew of outflow boundaries... dry air abounds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 From the discussion A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLYSHEAR OVER IRENE....AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN THIS SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAKE IRENE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS THE GFDL/HWRF. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The dry air intrusion is super obvious on the latest water vapor loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Nice cirrus outflow gave way to another slew of outflow boundaries... dry air abounds Irene's southern inflow is still being blocked by Hispaniola, not worried about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 23, 2011 Author Share Posted August 23, 2011 Looking at visible, there was a hint of an eye for a few frames right at the NHC center, but it has disappeared and I never did see a warm spot on IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 as you can see, Irene is taking a blow from Hispaniola at the southern flank.. intensification should slow until it moves away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Definitly taking on more of a W movement in the last several frames, could be good news if you want a US landfall http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpeters3 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 as you can see, Irene is taking a blow from Hispaniola at the southern flank.. intensification should slow until it moves away. This is likely due to a combination of dry air introduced from the island, and increasing SW sheer over the system: Dynamical models do alleviate this sheer over the next 2 days: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Spending a lot of time in the eye this pass, going near the center 3 times in a ten minute period. Extrap is down a bit, 975.0mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Bobby Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 They have located the center at 2035/7106, but on two passes the SFMR indicated wind speeds of ~10kts greater than at FL, (just one unflagged) so Irene is apparently a little tilted attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Drop 978mb with 9kt at the surface. Appears to be well stacked right now despite the increase in SW shear, max of 12kt winds on the drop from 700mb to the surface 69kt with 64kt SFMR in the E quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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