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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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i guess im just a doubter that it would miss nc and do anything other than clip/brush the cape given the setup. perhaps i've just never seen it happen so it's harder to believe.

Not sure I disagree with you there - I just also intimated/ that at some point this would probably turn right pretty hard up this way. If it were not for the flow being anomalously slow around Cape H, it would happen though. Many upper MA/NE impactors missed and/or just barely clipped Cape H.

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Made it, now North of Hispaniola.

Net gain from the last fix 9 min North (.15 latitude), 14 min West (.233 longitude)

000

URNT12 KNHC 230429

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 23/04:17:30Z

B. 20 deg 00 min N

069 deg 25 min W

C. 700 mb 2933 m

D. NA

E. NA

F. 138 deg 83 kt

G. 050 deg 14 nm

H. 980 mb

I. 9 C / 3039 m

J. 16 C / 3051 m

K. NA / NA

L. OPEN SE

M. C15

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF303 0709A IRENE OB 17

MAX FL WIND 83 KT NE QUAD 04:09:50Z

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Though partially open in the SE, it's a smaller eye.

Made it, now North of Hispaniola.

000

URNT12 KNHC 230429

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 23/04:17:30Z

B. 20 deg 00 min N

069 deg 25 min W

C. 700 mb 2933 m

D. NA

E. NA

F. 138 deg 83 kt

G. 050 deg 14 nm

H. 980 mb

I. 9 C / 3039 m

J. 16 C / 3051 m

K. NA / NA

L. OPEN SE

M. C15

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF303 0709A IRENE OB 17

MAX FL WIND 83 KT NE QUAD 04:09:50Z

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Eye expanding again

000

URNT12 KNHC 230546

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 23/05:18:00Z

B. 20 deg 06 min N

069 deg 38 min W

C. 700 mb 2942 m

D. 59 kt

E. 260 deg 11 nm

F. 009 deg 47 kt

G. 272 deg 52 nm

H. 980 mb

I. 8 C / 3052 m

J. 19 C / 3045 m

K. NA / NA

L. OPEN W

M. C24

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF303 0709A IRENE OB 22

MAX FL WIND 83 KT NE QUAD 04:09:50Z

MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 75 KT E QUAD 05:30:30Z

980mb was with 22kt winds, so they went with 978mb for the advisory.

2am advisory. Forgot to remove "on" from the copy/paste

DATA FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING

THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON

LATER TODAY.

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SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.5N 71.0W

ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND

ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

Max winds expected to reach 110kt now, instead of 115kt

New track goes into central North Carolina, and up the coast.

145015W_sm.gif

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From the discussion

A SHEAR ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS SHOWS ABOUT 10-20 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY

SHEAR OVER IRENE....AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT WEAKEN THIS

SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE SHIPS/LGEM

MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. ON THE

OTHER HAND...THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS ARE MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AND MAKE

IRENE A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST

IS HIGHER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS

THE GFDL/HWRF. THE UPDATED FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY.

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as you can see, Irene is taking a blow from Hispaniola at the southern flank.. intensification should slow until it moves away.

This is likely due to a combination of dry air introduced from the island, and increasing SW sheer over the system:

2011AL09_AMSUAAVG_000000000000.GIF

Dynamical models do alleviate this sheer over the next 2 days:

2011al09_diagplot_201108231200.png

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