Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Interesting stuff with the new 11 pm EDT forecast. They bring it up to Cat 4 (115 kt) by Day 3, but it's weakening and not even ashore by Day 5! At Day 5, it has winds of 100 kt and it's ~20 mi S of the SC/NC border and moving NNE. Looks pretty reasonable at this point. Tho so much for NHC not willing to predict a 4/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Interesting stuff with the new 11 pm EDT forecast. They bring it up to 115 kt (Cat 4) by Day 3, but it's weakening and not even ashore by Day 5! At Day 5, it has winds of 100 kt and it's ~20 mi S of the SC/NC border and moving NNE. I guess it's not too much different than the previous one-- but still. It irks me that it's still offshore Saturday night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 That's not even laughable...that's criminal. How many other models are run off that initialization? Any? I honestly don't know, but wow. I did notice though that the 18z initialization of the GFS was a tad too far SW, too - nothing this extreme, but a little. Not sure I am trusting these western solutions despite ridge sampling issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Looks pretty reasonable at this point. Tho so much for NHC not willing to predict a 4/5. Oh, I didn't mean it as a criticism of the forecast-- just I crave a little more clarity at this point. But I think we're getting it. The shift from the last forecast was small, so they seem to be settling on this SC/NC solution. Of course the 5 am EDT will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Oh, I didn't mean it as a criticism of the forecast-- just I crave a little more clarity at this point. But I think we're getting it. The shift from the last forecast was small, so they seem to be settling on this SC/NC solution. Of course the 5 am EDT will be very interesting. Euro notwithstanding it looks like a nailbiter along the coast. I guess the wildcard is a left jog of some sort. I don't personally care if there is no screaming trough a northward moving system wants to bend east around these parts. Tho I suppose you can't ask for a lot more as far as potential goes either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This is the most convincing signal for an eye I've seen yet with this : http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Irene... we had a deal , you gotta get to 20N before you can start turning west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Irene... we had a deal , you gotta get to 20N before you can start turning west! ... Lol, I don't think your deal is broken just yet. This system is moving slowly - that west jog could really be explained by that HUGE convective/CDO explosion "tugging" on the llv circulation as it struggles to align under that intense UVM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Oh, I didn't mean it as a criticism of the forecast-- just I crave a little more clarity at this point. But I think we're getting it. The shift from the last forecast was small, so they seem to be settling on this SC/NC solution. Of course the 5 am EDT will be very interesting. Some strange things in the forecast. For instance at 8pm Sat the track forecast has it just offshore as a major hurricane. At the same 8pm Sat time the wind speed probability chart only gives it a 7% chance of being a major and only a 36% chance of being a hurricane at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Irene... we had a deal , you gotta get to 20N before you can start turning west! I kind of don't mind the left jog at this point. Every W wobble now reduces the chance of an annoying OBX brush-- or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Lol, I don't think your deal is broken just yet. This system is moving slowly - that west jog could really be explained by that HUGE convective/CDO explosion "tugging" on the llv circulation as it struggles to align under that intense UVM. Ahh yes... although just looking at IR and the latest recon observations, it does appear our low and mid level centers aren't really completely aligned yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I wonder how much of a factor that upwelling could impact intensity if this thing really slows down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Ahh yes... although just looking at IR and the latest recon observations, it does appear our low and mid level centers aren't really completely aligned yet. Great point actually. A slightly decoupled vertical structure could account for blase intensification rates despite having CDO tops down as far -90C! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Ya big explosion near the center in the last few frames of the loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I wonder how much of a factor that upwelling could impact intensity if this thing really slows down. I believe the thermocline in that area is pretty deep ...certainly so as it near the Gulf Stream. The seas over the Bahamas are certainly quite shallow though - perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Ya big explosion near the center in the last few frames of the loop Those are smoking gun hot towers ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I believe the thermocline in that area is pretty deep ...certainly so as it near the Gulf Stream. The seas over the Bahamas are certainly quite shallow though - perhaps. The area between the Gulf Stream and the NC coast is prone to upwelling...there is a bit of distance there if the storm did slow enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sleetfreak Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The area between the Gulf Stream and the NC coast is prone to upwelling...there is a bit of distance there if the storm did slow enough. Per the Gulf Stream maps at CIMSS, if Irene follows the NHC forecast track, will be over the Gulf Stream from east of central Florida to just south of Myrtle Beach and Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 <b></b>The area between the Gulf Stream and the NC coast is prone to upwelling...there is a bit of distance there if the storm did slow enough.<b></b>Thanks guys, for your responses.. It was something I was just starting to think about which could be an influential factor.. Maybe not to the point of directly weakening the storm, but perhaps enough to at least slow the intensification process somewhat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Some strange things in the forecast. For instance at 8pm Sat the track forecast has it just offshore as a major hurricane. At the same 8pm Sat time the wind speed probability chart only gives it a 7% chance of being a major and only a 36% chance of being a hurricane at all. I noticed that, too -- and it includes a 13% chance of tropical depression strength, and a 28% chance the storm would be "dissipated" -- 4 in 10, then, of basically nothing. Can someone explain how these numbers are derived? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I agree the intensity of NHC could be underdone based on the last 15 years of hurricane climo vs their intensity forecast - I think the following track does have some merit (bolder red): Primary reasoning is seasonal trend; the trough tendency this season thus far has over-produced. It not even impossible that this could flirt with everyone and stay off shore. My runner up track is for a strike on eastern NC than a 2nd strike on eastern NE somewheres. I just think we've been collectively too far W considering the first 24 -36 hours of this so far and being right biased already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The area between the Gulf Stream and the NC coast is prone to upwelling...there is a bit of distance there if the storm did slow enough. This is true. I thought of that, but if you have a stronger system already passing over - I guess I don't really see this stalling honestly. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This is true. I thought of that, but if you have a stronger system already passing over - I guess I don't really see this stalling honestly. We'll see. The more and more latitude a storm gains, the harder it is to stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 The more and more latitude a storm gains, the harder it is to stall. obviously...there was/is some suggestion by the models that this could get cut-off from the main flow and drift into SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 obviously...there was/is some suggestion by the models that this could get cut-off from the main flow and drift into SC/NC. storms love to meander right on the edge of a ridge. i don't think that's as far fetched as it making a beeline straight for new england in a weak flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 storms love to meander right on the edge of a ridge. i don't think that's as far fetched as it making a beeline straight for new england in a weak flow. agree, though I think it's fair to note at least models (inc. the Euro) have tended to under forecast the digging of shortwaves in the upper MW this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 storms love to meander right on the edge of a ridge. i don't think that's as far fetched as it making a beeline straight for new england in a weak flow. A 'beeline" - no. That's a smooth total solution idea - I think in the case of LEK he means the same. In fact, if moves up any one of those trajectories at slow rate it's difficult to assume it would maintain intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 A 'beeline" - no. That's a smooth total solution idea - I think in the case of LEK he means the same. In fact, if moves up any one of those trajectories at slow rate it's difficult to assume it would maintain intensity. i guess im just a doubter that it would miss nc and do anything other than clip/brush the cape given the setup. perhaps i've just never seen it happen so it's harder to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 This is an odd pattern for recapture/rake EC scenarios... Ridging is the dominant signal beneath ~ 40 N. It's a weakness that draws this up; that tends to favor the west track on paper, but doesn't with Beta drift. We need to include that.. Anyway, I think the northern part of these track are a heart beat away from a hard right turn because these/this trough incursion shallows out near the MA, and that offers a longitudinal aspect to the flow at some point - how far N does it get first? Big question. The way the upper MA/NE gets hit hard is by accelerating systems moving faster than the adverse environment N of Cape H can impede their strength. This system would probably need to be moving a minimum of 30mph at these latitudes in order for that to happen - not sure I'm seeing that kind of S-N conduit setting up. Said ridge nodes provides a weakness that moves it perhaps along a classic track, but less than speed. Eh, TC are not my forte - we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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