dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 8::47pm microwave, particularly strong NW side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Getting close to the ring, but not there yet. Maybe later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 8::47pm microwave, particularly strong NW side Yes, and IR imagery shows CDO has dramatically increased in size in the last 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Getting close to the ring, but not there yet. Maybe later. Not much later, IMO...If one hasn't checked out the IR over the last 1.5 hours, we have one of the fastest expanding CDO's that I've ever seen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I type fast....you must have beat me by 2 seconds!! LOL, great minds think alike. Looking at the NASA GHCC loop, the "white" coldest tops of the CDO look like they've almost doubled in area in the last 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Short term intensification may be capped by the drier downslope flow off of Hispaniola that is just starting to work it's way into Irene, which can be seen on the IR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm getting one of those senses that this is going to (at some point in it's life) be a biggie! (Stronger than NHC has put out to this point) UL conditions progged are spectacular, SAL essentially gone, and little or no land to deal with (at least directly, other than the smaller islands). Conditions don't get much better looking out 2-3 days, at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm getting one of those senses that this is going to (at some point in it's life) be a biggie! (Stronger than NHC has put out to this point) UL conditions progged are spectacular, SAL essentially gone, and little or no land to deal with (at least directly, other than the smaller islands). Conditions don't get much better looking out 2-3 days, at this point. Ya, there's nothing really to stop it from intensifying once it pulls away from Hispaniola. The main limiting factor will probably be internal fluctuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Short term intensification may be capped by the drier downslope flow off of Hispaniola that is just starting to work it's way into Irene, which can be seen on the IR Very well could be, however, it actually may help to clear out the eye, once fully ingested, depending on the lower level banding structure. It could help to develop the eye a little wider than it otherwise would, which would help delay any future ERC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I'm getting one of those senses that this is going to (at some point in it's life) be a biggie! (Stronger than NHC has put out to this point) UL conditions progged are spectacular, SAL essentially gone, and little or no land to deal with (at least directly, other than the smaller islands). Conditions don't get much better looking out 2-3 days, at this point. Dry air from our continent does come into play after 96 hrs on the GFS However it could easily hit CAT4 prior to then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Ya, there's nothing really to stop it from intensifying once it pulls away from Hispaniola. The main limiting factor will probably be internal fluctuations. Seeing the Euro pulling some 930's also adds to the "sense"....Also, if I remember correctly, the HWRF had some physical equations adjusted, relative to intensification, recently, which was supposed to "limit" the extremely deep cyclones it erroneously was putting out.....and even with that.....915 pops up this evening. Without taking the model verbatium.....at the very least (along with the Euro and other outputs) the environment for great strengthening is going to be there.....at least as far as the progs go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Dry air from our continent does come into play after 96 hrs on the GFS However it could easily hit CAT4 prior to then. It very well could, depending on the approach distance from Fla. ...but I'm speaking more to the 24-72 hour period.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Ya, there's nothing really to stop it from intensifying once it pulls away from Hispaniola. The main limiting factor will probably be internal fluctuations. Don't typically see an RI interval with a lop-sided CDO but the last several frames look like this has accelerated - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I also think that we benefit from this storm that is forming a lot closer to the U.S than previous storms, like Isabel. Remember Isabel formed almost in Africa and maxed out at CAT 5 before reaching well before where Irene is now. It finally hit as a decaying CAT 1. I think this will do the same (peak before LF). It's entering into a "concave" area of land (SE coast), which may inhibit/decrease the system on approach. If it lingers/slows down in that area, then eventually dry air will become continuously supplied for over 50% of it's source region. History says that Cat 4's don't landfall north of the SC/NC border. History can be broken...but history has history on it's side!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Cantore on TWC said he is leaning towards the Euro's solution, saying he believes it has the best handle on the upper atmosphere. Doesn't think this is your typical hook off the east coast storm, thinking the trough may not have much of an influence. Said wouldn't be surprised if the ridge builds back in. Also noted the data tonight should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsouth Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Seeing the Euro pulling some 930's also adds to the "sense"....Also, if I remember correctly, the HWRF had some physical equations adjusted, relative to intensification, recently, which was supposed to "limit" the extremely deep cyclones it erroneously was putting out.....and even with that.....915 pops up this evening. Without taking the model verbatium.....at the very least (along with the Euro and other outputs) the environment for great strengthening is going to be there.....at least as far as the progs go.... I find the HWRF intensities interesting (to say the least). I did notice at the bottom of the text output from the last few runs that it said "UNCOUPLED." Not sure if this means its not coupled to an ocean model or what. If that is the case, that might help explain the extreme intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 BTW, I've mentioned this before, watching these things for the better part of 35+ years, notice the "notch" developing in the CDO....often times see this just prior to (up to several hours before) the emergence of a stacked eye (ie visible on IR)...we see that in the latest image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 BTW, I've mentioned this before, watching these things for the better part of 35+ years, notice the "notch" developing in the CDO....often times see this just prior to (up to several hours before) the emergence of a stacked eye (ie visible on IR)...we see that in the latest image: ... Looks like an inflow notch on a super cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 NW quad at 700mb, 69kt flight level, unflagged 71kt SFMR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Ya, there's nothing really to stop it from intensifying once it pulls away from Hispaniola. The main limiting factor will probably be internal fluctuations. Yea, I recently responded to LEK's post with something to that same effect, but it was apparently discarded for some reason. Looks to me like Hisp. is going to hold off a period of RI...at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 BTW, I've mentioned this before, watching these things for the better part of 35+ years, notice the "notch" developing in the CDO....often times see this just prior to (up to several hours before) the emergence of a stacked eye (ie visible on IR)...we see that in the latest image: Yep, we'll probably see an eye on IR in the next few hours.. unless there's some hispaniola disruption Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 For those of us vesting any interesting in the WRF-related products the model initialized Irene on land over DR - umm, okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 FWIW + $0.50 tax, Sref mean is about 10-15 miles off Daytona Beach at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 For those of us vesting any interesting in the WRF-related products the model initialized Irene on land over DR - umm, okay. That's not even laughable...that's criminal. How many other models are run off that initialization? Any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Defiantly seems like an eye wants to pop out soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Struggling just a tad, but trying to pinch off a much smaller eye. Movement was more west this fix than the previous fix, up to 19.85 now. Should clear Hispaniola with the next pass, but really want to see it gain a bit more to avoid disrupting the Southern part of the core, but the smaller eye should help reduce disruption a tad. 000 URNT12 KNHC 230251 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 23/02:38:20Z B. 19 deg 51 min N 069 deg 11 min W C. 700 mb 2954 m D. 71 kt E. 307 deg 11 nm F. 048 deg 69 kt G. 310 deg 16 nm H. 983 mb I. 12 C / 3046 m J. 16 C / 3053 m K. NA / NA L. OPEN E-SE M. C14 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF303 0709A IRENE OB 12 MAX FL WIND 77 KT NE QUAD 00:53:30Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 71 KT SE QUAD 02:43:00Z MAX FL TEMP 17 C 307 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 FWIW + $0.50 tax, Sref mean is about 10-15 miles off Daytona Beach at 84. Not surprising, it is made up of NAM ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Defiantly seems like an eye wants to pop out soon. Just looks to me like dry air wants to stream in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Interesting stuff with the new 11 pm EDT forecast. They bring it up to 115 kt (Cat 4) by Day 3, but it's weakening and not even ashore by Day 5! At Day 5, it has winds of 100 kt and it's ~20 mi S of the SC/NC border and moving NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 MODEL THREAD: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.