Mallow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 GA back in play per the HWRF. Has Irene barely offshore the GA/SC border--a considerable shift SW from 12Z. Let;s see if that trend continues. GA was never really out of play. For that matter, neither is the central Atlantic coast of Florida. Unlikely? Sure, but still well within the "cone of uncertainty" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 106 kts FL supports 85 kts at the surface, could warrant a special advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Lower heights atop Irene this evening look like it'll allow the system to end up a good bit east of forecast position for 6z tonight. Continues along the eastern envelop of modelled paths. (though under forecasted ridge may ultimately negate this) I don't know... the NHC position at 5pm had Irene move .3 N and 1.1 W since 11 AM... which is more west of north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 106 kts FL supports 85 kts at the surface, could warrant a special advisory. The 8pm advisory will be out shortly, so they may put it in there or wait for the 11 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I don't know... the NHC positions since 11 AM have had Irene move .3 N and 1.1 W since 11 AM... which is more west of north... Curious to see current recon center plot. Always difficult to pinpoint purely from sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Lower heights atop Irene this evening look like it'll allow the system to end up a good bit east of forecast position for 6z tonight. Continues along the eastern envelop of modelled paths. (though under forecasted ridge may ultimately negate this) seems like it's been continually running north/east of guidance. maybe just selective viewing on my part though. not sure how much that matters down the road though. i get the setup etc., but generally as someone viewing from the north i don't like seeing systems get north at all (too soon at least ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 vortex seems to contradict the HDOBs 000URNT12 KNHC 222335VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011A. 22/23:25:00ZB. 19 deg 41 min N 068 deg 39 min WC. 850 mb 1278 mD. 41 ktE. 145 deg 88 nmF. 240 deg 56 ktG. 171 deg 10 nmH. 982 mbI. 18 C / 1521 mJ. 23 C / 1517 mK. 20 C / NAL. OPEN SE-SWM. E31/30/24N. 12345 / 8O. 0.02 / 3 nmP. AF303 0709A IRENE OB 04MAX FL WIND 56 KT S QUAD 23:21:50ZMAX FL TEMP 24 C 175 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 VDM: Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 23:35Z Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303) Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011 Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 7 Observation Number: 04 A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 23:25:00Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 19°41'N 68°39'W (19.6833N 68.65W) B. Center Fix Location: 116 miles (187 km) to the NE (44°) from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic. C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,278m (4,193ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 41kts (~ 47.2mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 88 nautical miles (101 statute miles) to the SE (145°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 240° at 56kts (From the WSW at ~ 64.4mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the S (171°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 982mb (29.00 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,517m (4,977ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Open from the southeast to the southwest M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped) M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 310° to 130° (NW to SE) M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 30 nautical miles (35 statute miles) M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph) in the south quadrant at 23:21:50Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 24°C (75°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the S (175°) from the flight level center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 seems like it's been continually running north/east of guidance. maybe just selective viewing on my part though. not sure how much that matters down the road though. i get the setup etc., but generally as someone viewing from the north i don't like seeing systems get north at all (too soon at least ). It was tracking north/east of guidance until this morning. It's since stabilized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Curious to see current recon center plot. Always difficult to pinpoint purely from sat. I have been using the NHC points from their advisories for calculating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I don't know... the NHC position at 5pm had Irene move .3 N and 1.1 W since 11 AM... which is more west of north... Recon fixed the Center .2N and .05W of the 5pm advisory, so at that time they likely were too far East with the location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 It was tracking north/east of guidance until this morning. It's since stabilized. well, if all it's doing is avoiding hispaniola i guess we can all give it a pass for now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 vortex seems to contradict the HDOBs 000URNT12 KNHC 222335VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011A. 22/23:25:00ZB. 19 deg 41 min N 068 deg 39 min WC. 850 mb 1278 mD. 41 ktE. 145 deg 88 nmF. 240 deg 56 ktG. 171 deg 10 nmH. 982 mbI. 18 C / 1521 mJ. 23 C / 1517 mK. 20 C / NAL. OPEN SE-SWM. E31/30/24N. 12345 / 8O. 0.02 / 3 nmP. AF303 0709A IRENE OB 04MAX FL WIND 56 KT S QUAD 23:21:50ZMAX FL TEMP 24 C 175 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR that cannot be correct, 56 kts is definitely not the highest winds they found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 vortex seems to contradict the HDOBs 000URNT12 KNHC 222335VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011A. 22/23:25:00ZB. 19 deg 41 min N 068 deg 39 min WC. 850 mb 1278 mD. 41 ktE. 145 deg 88 nmF. 240 deg 56 ktG. 171 deg 10 nmH. 982 mbI. 18 C / 1521 mJ. 23 C / 1517 mK. 20 C / NAL. OPEN SE-SWM. E31/30/24N. 12345 / 8O. 0.02 / 3 nmP. AF303 0709A IRENE OB 04MAX FL WIND 56 KT S QUAD 23:21:50ZMAX FL TEMP 24 C 175 / 8 NM FROM FL CNTR They had the strongest winds in the South Quad, which that information is accurate for. It is likely the exiting leg didn't get into the vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 85kt Cat 2, slowed down as well. 000WTNT64 KNHC 222348 TCUAT4 HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 750 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011 ...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH...155 KM/H. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 815 PM AST...0015 UTC. SUMMARY OF 750 PM AST...2350 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 68.7W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 seems like it's been continually running north/east of guidance. maybe just selective viewing on my part though. not sure how much that matters down the road though. i get the setup etc., but generally as someone viewing from the north i don't like seeing systems get north at all (too soon at least ). you're right, not just selective viewing. the trend has certainly leveled a bit this afternoon, though recon fix looks like it may be continuing again this evening. In general there seem to be few instances where a system ends up further west than progged in the 48hr timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Movement of .2N .1W in the 3 hrs since the 5pm advisory Also, gained 20mph in 3 hrs.. pretty good sign that is strengthening pretty rapidly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Movement of .2N .1W in the 3 hrs since the 5pm advisory There is some uncertainty in the 5pm fix, though, because there was no recon. We'll have a better idea on the direction tonight with the plane in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 There is some uncertainty in the 5pm fix, though, because there was no recon. We'll have a better idea on the direction tonight with the plane in there. Should we wait till the 11 pm adv? Or will the update 8:15 pm one suffice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Discussion: http://philstropical...on-the-horizon/ Here is my latest map... thoughts are coming in just a moment when I finish the post. Interesting that we are up to Cat 2 intensity! EDIT: before somebody tells me I know I need to fix the graphic so it says "Hirricane Irene" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Should we wait till the 11 pm adv? Or will the update 8:15 pm one suffice? Personally, I would just track the VDMs. Those are the best indicator of heading and speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Category 2 intensity with the eye still not discernible on satellite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 NHC having a new special advisory at 7:50 I think with a new cone. Doubt it. They only update track forecasts at 3z, 9z, 15z, and 21z. Only updating intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 given the discussion of inland threats (flooding in particular) adam created a thread covering it for those who want to discuss it outside their regional subforums: http://www.americanw...looding-thread/ we do welcome more numerous threads on discrete subjects. if this should become a "memorable" event it will be nicer to have things spread out a bit more rather than 15,000 posts of running commentary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 GFDL is a persistent one. A touch E of 12Z but still runs up central FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I think the NHC may update the intensity forecast...I'm guessing they won't touch the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 So far every center fix has been to the right of the NHC track. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Doubt it. They only update track forecasts at 3z, 9z, 15z, and 21z. Only updating intensity On The Weather Channel they just said that the NHC is coming out with a special advisory at 8:15, meaning that they must have found something (maybe new data) which made them want to issue a new forecast cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Doubt it. They only update track forecasts at 3z, 9z, 15z, and 21z. Only updating intensity They are issuing a full package due to the increase in category. I doubt they will make any significant changes to track - but it will be a complete update with all products. ...IRENE NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 MPH...155 KM/H. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY 815 PM AST...0015 UTC. SUMMARY OF 750 PM AST...2350 UTC...INFORMATION -------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 68.7W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM E OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 On The Weather Channel they just said that they are coming out with a special advisory at 8:15, meaning that they must have found something (maybe new data) which made them want to issue a new forecast cone. The new data is the fact that Irene is likely undergoing rapid intensification, requiring them to increase the intensity forecast. They are NOT releasing a new track/cone that is any different from the one on the 21Z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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