PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The forecast tracks make complete sense synoptically, even if it is a rare occurrence. This. If climatology was the superior way of forecasting, nothing would be able to beat the CLIPR "model" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 969mb at 120... seems to have slowed down quite a lot in its movement as it approaches the NC/SC border... looks like landfall may be a bot further SW than the 12z EURO placement Yeah, since the trough isn't nearly as potent this run, it has a lot less northward tugging in the upper levels, and thus it's able to maintain its initial slower westward trajectory for a longer period of time, as opposed to getting pulled northward by the trough, in which case it would start to accelerate. The further west scenarios are going to be slower by default. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The 500 mb pattern will tell the tale. Please note the progged depiction attached below. I've been thinking Montauk Point is the sweet spot and if I were betting, my money would be on Montauk. Sorry'bout my crude artwork but the heavy black is the 500 dome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I've been reading since the first page on the first thread, but I think I've missed where I can see the radar. I've looked at wunderground and tried to google it, but it comes up no disponsables....anyone have a link I can bookmark? The other links I have are showing me barely any convection or moisture. TIA ya'll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Are you talking about the one in Canada? Yea, the one in northern manitoba at 96 hours. at 12z that was way further southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Odd little northeastward pivot there off the coast of NC before resuming a brief northward track. Anyway, those kinds of details at this range are obviously too fine to really look at in the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I've been reading since the first page on the first thread, but I think I've missed where I can see the radar. I've looked at wunderground and tried to google it, but it comes up no disponsables....anyone have a link I can bookmark? The other links I have are showing me barely any convection or moisture. TIA ya'll! http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Recon is in the air, won't take all that long to get data with the storm being close to where recon was based. Going to be losing the Puerto Rico Radar fairly soon, but looking better now than it did earlier, especially on the South side. Looks like it's up to 19.6N on the radar, just another few tenths to clear Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The Ridge over NM and the zonal flow still favor a strong east component after it gets to the carolinas. It will have to go west of Releigh to have a shot at moving over NYC and it will be a TD by then. Anyway I Favor a sharper recurve than models are suggesting, but it still has a shot at hitting NC on a NNE trajectory before it turns too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Anyone have Dominican Republic Radar? I tried going to their official site, but it wouldn't let me use radar. Thx in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 18Z GFS is shifting back to the west some. Has some of the NOAA jet data been incorporated into this run? No because 18z before the mission took off. However, the good news for those that are looking for a more westward track is that it seems that both the 12z GFS and 12z ECWMF underestimated the mid-level ridging over the Bahamas from 10-30 meters based on the G-IV dropsondes so far. In contrast, it seems like the models overestimated the heights closer to Irene (not a huge surprise). This likely explains the more poleward motion than forecasted currently, but the higher heights upstream may potentially mean the 00z model suite will trend more westward with this data ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlestonNYC Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The 18Z HWRF at 66h is 7mb's weaker but about 50-75mi more west than the 12z HWRF at 72h fwiw. And it might actually in fact BE worth something, considering the slight westward shifts the 12Z global models decided to take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 No because 18z before the mission took off. However, the good news for those that are looking for a more westward track is that it seems that both the 12z GFS and 12z ECWMF underestimated the mid-level ridging over the Bahamas from 10-30 meters based on the G-IV dropsondes so far. In contrast, it seems like the models overestimated the heights closer to Irene (not a huge surprise). This likely explains the more poleward motion than forecasted currently, but the higher heights upstream may potentially mean the 00z model suite will trend more westward with this data ingested. I thought some data were ingested in the 18z GFS? Heres the link and I count several aircraft data sets? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/realtime/gfs/t18z/index.summary.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Didn't several stations along the East coast release Wx Balloons to get a better picture of the atmospheric profile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I thought some data were ingested in the 18z GFS? Heres the link and I count several aircraft data sets? http://www.nco.ncep....x.summary.shtml I believe 18z balloons went up from a number of WFOs in the eastern US... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I think the HWRF is going to depict it's lowest pressure so far......last updat showed an 11mb drop in 6 hours....931 -920...definitely west by a modest amount... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Didn't several stations along the East coast release Wx Balloons to get a better picture of the atmospheric profile? Yeah, a bunch... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11082218_OBS/'>http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11082218_OBS/ Use http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/ to see all recent ones (on the mainland, anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yeah, a bunch... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11082218_OBS/'>http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/11082218_OBS/ Use http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/ to see all recent ones (on the mainland, anyway). They are doing them at 06z too I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Probably not exactly what you're looking for, but I run this page for my company: http://www.icatdamageestimator.com/ If you select Active Storms --> Irene, and Current Position, you can input a distance (in miles) and get all U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones that have ever passed within that given distance of Irene's current location. It also gives you some storm parameters, as well as the damage at the time of the storm and the normalized damage of what the historical storm may cause today. You can also see all storms that have made landfall within the current forecast cone or all storms that have made landfall within the current model forecast range. A couple posters notified me via PM that I mis-typed the link above. It has been fixed so should work now. Thanks to those posters for pointing out my mistake! http://www.icatdamageestimator.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 916mb, and very west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The forecast tracks make complete sense synoptically, even if it is a rare occurrence. This. If climatology was the superior way of forecasting, nothing would be able to beat the CLIPR "model" Great comments. Looking at historic tracks without knowing the differences in synoptic setups that shaped those tracks, to me, seems akin to predicting future cancer rates for young adults of a specific ethnic group without knowing their environmental and lifestyle risks/attributes. I presume that for those 17 storms in the graphic, if one were to overlay the key synoptic features at play for each (not 100% sure what they are, but I'm sure they at least include the strength/location of the various ridges/troughs in relatively close proximity to the cyclone, as well as the current/predicted location and evolution of any ridges/troughs likely to affect the cyclone over the next several days and the various jet stream components that drive them, etc.), and find the closest matches to the current setup, then one might have a bit more confidence in what the analogs would predict, especially if they're tightly clustered. Although even when you have a good analog dataset (not that I've done this in this field, but it's similar in other fields, like my epidemiology example, above), it's still no guarantee that the outcome will verify what the analog would predict, since the datasets usually aren't granular enough and I would think the understanding of the evolution of steering currents, systems and cyclones just isn't well enough understood to precisely pinpoint where a cyclone is going 5 days out. As an aside, I assume the pros at the NHC and some others probably have access to these datasets and it would be interesting to see where the closest matches ended up (I'm guessing that's what the CLIPR "model" does?). Would be curious to know if what I said above makes sense or not (and if not, why not). Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I thought some data were ingested in the 18z GFS? Heres the link and I count several aircraft data sets? http://www.nco.ncep....x.summary.shtml I believe those might have been dropsondes from the last recon mission into Irene, but I'm not sure. In any event we should have the full G-IV suite for 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Northern eyewall showing up on infrared satellite. Note the heavy convection over Hispaniola, good bet on heavy rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 HWRF rides the FL East Coast.... but never does make "landfall"... but it is further west than it was at 12z By 120... its at 918 up about 50-100 miles offshore JAX moving N (about to make landfall at Savannah it appears) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 had sort of that broad dishpan look going into sunset -- see image archive thread for loop. reminiscent of some others before boosting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 106kt flight level NW quad from 850mb. SFMR 91kt flagged, 81kt unflagged. It's intensifying. It doesn't have extrap pressure, center is up to 19.7N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 GA back in play per the HWRF. Has Irene barely offshore the GA/SC border--a considerable shift SW from 12Z. Let;s see if that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Sun glinting off the eyewall on the last vis shot of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 982mb on the drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Lower heights atop Irene this evening look like it'll allow the system to end up a good bit east of forecast position for 6z tonight. Continues along the eastern envelop of modelled paths. (though under forecasted ridge may ultimately negate this) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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