Major Hurricane Irene live tracking

[yoda]

I don't understand the weakening before landfall, I know that the ocean temps won't be as high up towards the Carolina's but its already been discussed why a major could verify at this lattitude given the excellent atmospheric conditions.

the day 5 plot landfall has already occured... thats why

[am19psu]

Anyone get a look at the FIM today? Not even sure if that's run at 12z and 00z, just 00z or what. I know what it is, I just don't know much about it. But I know NHC has referenced it a couple times with this storm. Just curious more than anything.

I don't have a clue what it is, but you can look at it here. It mirrors the 12z GFS ops.

[Hugo]

Of course it doesn't matter, but NHC's 120 hour point is a few hours inland. That's why it's weaker.

[am19psu]

I don't understand the weakening before landfall, I know that the ocean temps won't be as high up towards the Carolina's but its already been discussed why a major could verify at this lattitude given the excellent atmospheric conditions.

Wunderground shows the strength at landfall.

You both should probably voluntarily read more and post less.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

PSUBlizzicane2007 said in the prior thread regarding the 12Z HWRF's 916 mb near 32N, 80W:

"You know... I honestly can't remember the last time any model... including the intensification happy GFDL and HWRF... forecasted such a strong system that far north off the east coast.

Can anyone remember anything similar?"

Well, it isn't that close to the east coast, but the Euro did have some Igor (2010) runs with pressure lower than 916 mb at 32N or further north:

1) 9/14 0Z run 144 hour map: 914 mb at 33N, 66W

2) 9/17 0Z run 72 hour map: 914 mb at 33N, 65W

3) 9/17 12Z run 72 hour map: 912 mb at 35N, 65W

4) 9/18 0Z run 48 hour map: 911 mb at 32N, 65W

Igor's central SLP verified to be way up at 953 mb at 32 N, 66W, or about 40 mb higher than these runs. Also, it had an apparently altime lowest modeled SLP of 904 mb at 27N, 65W, from the 120 hour map of the 9/13 12Z run for Igor. It verified to be 945 mb or 41 mb higher! The lowest SLP for its entire lifetime was 924 MB at 19N. This is just one storm from 2010 that makes me very wary about the Euro when it has far lower pressure than the GFS and it is very low vs. climo for latitudes north of 25N. It did almost as poorly with Earl up in the 38N-42N area. In lower latitudes, it went batsh*t with Fiona, for which it had eight straight horrendous runs (seven of which either threatened or actually hit the U.S. with the following lowest SLP's (in mb) in various locations between the SW Atlantic and the GOM : 921, 908 (lowest of any Euro model run at that time since Katrina), 934, 930, 926, 939, 960, and 962. Its lowest verified way up at 998 mb!

Interesting... thanks for that. FWIW, of course, the TCHP around where Irene will be is much, much more favorable than where Igor was.

[GaWx]

Interesting... thanks for that. FWIW, of course, the TCHP around where Irene will be is much, much more favorable than where Igor was.

YW. No doubt there's a heck of a lot of potential with Irene, with a major seemingly quite likely at some point and a major hit quite possible. Also, at some point with a future storm, the Euro will score a coup with a much lower SLP than other globals when something just happens to undergo explosive development. My treatment of the Euro in these situations for forecasting purposes is to assume that is at about the absolute strongest a storm could get and that the odds are very high that the Euro will verify a good bit too strong when it goes much more batsh*t than other globals, especially when analyzing predicted SLP vs. lowest on record for a particular latitude.

[Typhoon Tip]

PSUBlizzicane2007 said in the prior thread regarding the 12Z HWRF's 916 mb near 32N, 80W:

"You know... I honestly can't remember the last time any model... including the intensification happy GFDL and HWRF... forecasted such a strong system that far north off the east coast.

Can anyone remember anything similar?"

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Well, it isn't that close to the east coast, but the Euro did have some Igor (2010) runs with pressure lower than 916 mb at 32N or further north:

1) 9/14 0Z run 144 hour map: 914 mb at 33N, 66W

2) 9/17 0Z run 72 hour map: 914 mb at 33N, 65W

3) 9/17 12Z run 72 hour map: 912 mb at 35N, 65W

4) 9/18 0Z run 48 hour map: 911 mb at 32N, 65W

Igor's central SLP verified to be way up at 953 mb at 32 N, 66W, or about 40 mb higher than these runs. Also, it had an apparently altime lowest modeled SLP of 904 mb at 27N, 65W, from the 120 hour map of the 9/13 12Z run for Igor. It verified to be 945 mb or 41 mb higher! The lowest SLP for its entire lifetime was 924 MB at 19N. This is just one storm from 2010 that makes me very wary about the Euro when it has far lower pressure than the GFS and it is very low vs. climo for latitudes north of 25N. It did almost as poorly with Earl up in the 38N-42N area. In lower latitudes, it went batsh*t with Fiona, for which it had eight straight horrendous runs (seven of which either threatened or actually hit the U.S. with the following lowest SLP's (in mb) in various locations between the SW Atlantic and the GOM : 921, 908 (lowest of any Euro model run at that time since Katrina), 934, 930, 926, 939, 960, and 962. Its lowest verified way up at 998 mb!

Hey GaWx,

glad you stopped by - I was thinking about you earlier... Love to see a speg. plot of all hurricanes in the current fix going forward!

[GaWx]

Hey GaWx,

glad you stopped by - I was thinking about you earlier... Love to see a speg. plot of all hurricanes in the current fix going forward!

Hey Tip,

Unfortunately, I don't have that plot. Are you by chance mixing me up with someone else?

[Ed Lizard]

You both should probably voluntarily read more and post less.

When a mod uses the term "voluntarily" in making suggestions that some people post a lot less, there is an implied threat of a 5 post or a suspension. Word to the wise. If you're posts disappear, it is also a hint that the mods have noticed your posts and don't think they belong here. There is a banter thread. Use it for one liners, comments about how cool a hurricane in your neighborhood would be, or how stupid the NHC is.

[dan11295]

Just by looking at the long range radar out of San Juan you can tell that the structure of the system is improving despite the system moving farther away. This agrees with the significant increase in convection around the COC. Does not appear that Hispaniola is affecting it too much right now.

[TUweathermanDD]

Couple things to take note of here: The arc clouds are moving away from the storm, showing the dry air is having less of an effect on the system, the CofC is starting to really get a solidified CDO in place with a more formidable eyewall likely to develop, and over the past three advisories, we have gone .3N, 1.1W, so thats good for any of you hoping for more westerly movement. Hopefully some data ingestion will help us for tonights runs and also interesting to see what recon will discover in their next mission as Irene is starting to get a more classic tropical cyclone look now, shedding off the ragged parts of her structure.

[Typhoon Tip]

Couple things to take note of here: The arc clouds are moving away from the storm, showing the dry air is having less of an effect on the system, the CofC is starting to really get a solidified CDO in place with a more formidable eyewall likely to develop, and over the past three advisories, we have gone .3N, 1.1W, so thats good for any of you hoping for more westerly movement. Hopefully some data ingestion will help us for tonights runs and also interesting to see what recon will discover in their next mission as Irene is starting to get a more classic tropical cyclone look now, shedding off the ragged parts of her structure.

It is actually not that uncommon to get arcus behavior in the outer feeder bands in even the best of conditions... These outer bands can have there own meteorology as they represent the interface between the storms "event horizon" and the outside domain. Others noted some dry air NW of Irenes, and the outer bands NW of the center are certainly interacting with that air.

That said, futher inward this appears not be the case and the dry air is pretty well fended off in this inner domain, during the day - can't be absolutely certian of course, just from observed satellite imagery.

Gilbert circa 1980s', was a massive massive cyclone in the Caribbean. Juggernaut powerhouse really... 165mph sustained for a considerable length of time and some very deep pressures...yadda yadda... One of its feeder bands actually generated a new TD as a satellite vortex. The outer bands that are far removed from the center are reallly quite analogous to galaxy arms - they can have their own black holes so to speak.

[Typhoon Tip]

Hey Tip,

Unfortunately, I don't have that plot. Are you by chance mixing me up with someone else?

My response to this seems to have disappeared - apologies if this repeats.

Hmmm, well firstly you're good with stats, but 2ndly I thought I remembered you posting hurricane track records based on a beginning position in the past. Either way, do you have the numbers on this?

[TUweathermanDD]

It is actually not that uncommon to get arcus behavior in the outer feeder bands in even the best of conditions... These outer bands can have there own meteorology as they represent the interface between the storms "event horizon" and the outside domain. Others noted some dry air NW of Irenes, and the outer bands NW of the center are certainly interacting with that air.

That said, futher inward this appears not be the case and the dry air is pretty well fended off in this inner domain, during the day - can't be absolutely certian of course, just from observed satellite imagery.

Gilber, circa 1980s', was a massive massive cyclone in the Caribbean. Juggernaut powerhouse really... 165mph sustained for a considerable length of time and some very deep pressures...yadda yadda... One of its feeder band actually generated a TD as a satellite vortex. The outer bands that are far removed from the center are reallly quite analogous to galaxy arms - they can have their own black holes so to speak.

I see, very interesting info there Tip! The bands on Gilbert looking at satellite images were fantastic, one of the best looking cyclones I've ever seen. Either way, glad we agree the dry air seems to be a less existent problem as we progress on here for Irene, as she is developing, and soon enough she will be in even better conditions, to where not only the center but the entire system will have minimal dry air issues. Love the analogy btw!

[bobbutts]

My response to this seems to have disappeared - apologies if this repeats.

Hmmm, well firstly you're good with stats, but 2ndly I thought I remembered you posting hurricane track records based on a beginning position in the past. Either way, do you have the numbers on this?

wunderground has this historical plot for every storm.. not sure if this is the product you're looking for though.

[Typhoon Tip]

wunderground has this historical plot for every storm.. not sure if this is the product you're looking for though.

Close! thx. What I have seen in the past is literally all 'canes beginnng at a fixed point, like 20N/60W for example.... I'll have to take a look later.

[blazess556]

Eyewall beginning to look better on long range puerto rico radar. could see an eye pop later tonight.

[Typhoon Tip]

Close enough between this and the other products...

Irene seems to have gone toward the left side of that cluster near PR though, so perhaps we need to find a new group if events that cut across eastern PR and went a degree of lat/lon past the NE coast of DR.

[OKpowdah]

Close enough between this and the other products...

Irene seems to have gone toward the left side of that cluster near PR though, so perhaps we need to find a new group if events that cut across eastern PR and went a degree of lat/lon past the NE coast of DR.

I had posted a more specific grouping, but the mods have gotten a little delete-happy I think.

Here's named storms between TS and Cat 3 strength, within 50 miles of the 5pm location, moving between 280 and 310 deg. (17 results)

[boulderrr]

Close! thx. What I have seen in the past is literally all 'canes beginnng at a fixed point, like 20N/60W for example.... I'll have to take a look later.

Probably not exactly what you're looking for, but I run this page for my company:

http://www.icatdamageestimator.com/

If you select Active Storms --> Irene, and Current Position, you can input a distance (in miles) and get all U.S. landfalling tropical cyclones that have ever passed within that given distance of Irene's current location. It also gives you some storm parameters, as well as the damage at the time of the storm and the normalized damage of what the historical storm may cause today. You can also see all storms that have made landfall within the current forecast cone or all storms that have made landfall within the current model forecast range.

[Cheeznado]

18Z GFS out to 90, it is farther SW than the 12Z run, More Euro-like.

[HurricaneJosh]

The sample set is an even spread from the Yucatan to Bermuda. Bottom line is that climo brings no real insights Re: track in this case.

[HKY_WX]

18Z GFS out to 90, it is farther SW than the 12Z run, More Euro-like.

the second vort on the gfs is several hundred miles further NE this run vs 12z at 90hr. i see nothing to turn it NE after the initial trough leaves it behind.

[Mallow]

the second vort on the gfs is several hundred miles further NE this run vs 12z at 90hr. i see nothing to turn it NE after the initial trough leaves it behind.

Ya, just based on model trends so far, this will probably fall more in line with the Euro. At least southern NC instead of the Outer Banks, probably.

[Dsnowx53]

the second vort on the gfs is several hundred miles further NE this run vs 12z at 90hr. i see nothing to turn it NE after the initial trough leaves it behind.

Are you talking about the one in Canada?

[bobbutts]

The sample set is an even spread from the Yucatan to Bermuda. Bottom line is that climo brings no real insights Re: track in this case.

the other way to look at the climo is that the nhc forecast track for this storm is not a historically typical one

I suspect this is just a rare setup, but maybe it's a hint that the nhc forecast is unlikely.

[Dsnowx53]

Yeah, that secondary vort in Canada was much weaker and much further NE this run than in the 12z. Thus, the trough does not dig nearly as much in future frames, and the storm is able to maintain a westward trajectory for longer. This will definitely have a landfall, and most likely into southern NC.

[yoda]

969mb at 120... seems to have slowed down quite a lot in its movement as it approaches the NC/SC border... looks like landfall may be a bit further SW than the 12z EURO placement

[am19psu]

the other way to look at the climo is that the nhc forecast track for this storm is not a historically typical one

I suspect this is just a rare setup, but maybe it's a hint that the nhc forecast is unlikely.

The forecast tracks make complete sense synoptically, even if it is a rare occurrence.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

This 18Z GFS run is a perfect example as to why you don't throw the baby out with the bathwater and latch onto a short trend when the trend doesn't make too much sense.