Major Hurricane Irene live tracking

[Ian]

have you ever posted text here?

[Ed Lizard]

Remember, amateur forecasts, banter, how much for Philly, 1 liners and the such go in the banter threads, discussions of what might happen IMBY are for regional subforum threads. The less us pure amateur hobbyists post, the more noticeable the red and orange taggers, and the quality amateurs like wxmx and others will stand out. Please also avoid posting the NAM, and we don't need 6 hour updates on the GFS forecast position.

See more: http://www.americanw...acking-threads/

[am19psu]

New thread here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/24189-hurricane-irene-thread-3/

[phil882]

To supplement what PSUBilz said about the 12z ECWMF being more superior, it also is more accurate than the GFS with the mid level hights at initialization over Bermuda.

[wxmeddler]

I understand that these maps are potential strengths for 100% efficient systems ignoring atmospheric effects. But I want to ask if they are actually useful for determining maximum potential or just weenie maps..

[OKpowdah]

18z SHIPS RI Probs:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%)

Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%)

Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 5.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%)

Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 22% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

[k***]

I understand that these maps are potential strengths for 100% efficient systems ignoring atmospheric effects. But I want to ask if they are actually useful for determining maximum potential or just weenie maps..

pretty weenie IMO.

the new hotness for MPI calculations is just to use the SHIPS output

[dtk]

To supplement what PSUBilz said about the 12z ECWMF being more superior, it also is more accurate than the GFS with the mid level hights at initialization over Bermuda.

Ok, except that observations also have errors. To be honest, I'm not sure how meaningful this 'more accurate thing' is for a single observation at a single time.

I say this without having looked at much stuff myself in detail. It's entirely possible that your interpretation is correct, but difficult to draw this conclusion from a single observation.

[chris87]

Ok, except that observations also have errors. To be honest, I'm not sure how meaningful this 'more accurate thing' is for a single observation at a single time.

I say this without having looked at much stuff myself in detail. It's entirely possible that your interpretation is correct, but difficult to draw this conclusion from a single observation.

until NCEP goes 4D-VAR (or some EnKF/hybrid)...the ECMWF analysis system will always be superior...better initial analysis....better forecasts....there really isn't much debate

[OKpowdah]

Ok, except that observations also have errors. To be honest, I'm not sure how meaningful this 'more accurate thing' is for a single observation at a single time.

I say this without having looked at much stuff myself in detail. It's entirely possible that your interpretation is correct, but difficult to draw this conclusion from a single observation.

I generally agree with you, except that in this case, the single observation is relatively isolated, so it has a major weight to it on the surrounding initial conditions.

Also, the Euro does have a superior initialization system

[Southland Wx]

12z Euro ensembles in and show tight agreement through 96 hours, then a muddled mess beyond that...less out to sea scenarios, but a couple more FL scenarios, with centers ranging from up the coast to the FL panhandle. Also higher heights overall in the Northeast. This tells me that something is awry with the speed of this storm as it moves up the coast. And to that end it is slower than the 00z ensembles as well. Long way to go on this one still. FWIW, the ens. "mean" is in line with the Op Euro and overall seems slightly further west than 00z as well...still would favor an NC/SC border storm.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

12z Euro ensembles in and show tight agreement through 96 hours, then a muddled mess beyond that...less out to sea scenarios, but a couple more FL scenarios, with centers ranging from up the coast to the FL panhandle. Also higher heights overall in the Northeast. This tells me that something is awry with the speed of this storm as it moves up the coast. And to that end it is slower than the 00z ensembles as well. Long way to go on this one still. FWIW, the ens. "mean" is in line with the Op Euro and overall seems slightly further west than 00z as well...still would favor an NC/SC border storm.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who thought that when looking at the 12Z Euro... specifically hours 144-168.

[LakeEffectKing]

12z Euro ensembles in and show tight agreement through 96 hours, then a muddled mess beyond that...less out to sea scenarios, but a couple more FL scenarios, with centers ranging from up the coast to the FL panhandle. Also higher heights overall in the Northeast. This tells me that something is awry with the speed of this storm as it moves up the coast. And to that end it is slower than the 00z ensembles as well. Long way to go on this one still. FWIW, the ens. "mean" is in line with the Op Euro and overall seems slightly further west than 00z as well...still would favor an NC/SC border storm.

Matt, what does the Euro ensemble means do with precip as it moves inland and to the NE.....shift the max precip to the NW part of the storm as is typical??

[yoda]

Thought this would be a good repost in this thread... OSU posted this just before the earlier thread closed... would appear that the track at least would support the 12z EURO solution idea

[dtk]

until NCEP goes 4D-VAR (or some EnKF/hybrid)...the ECMWF analysis system will always be superior...better initial analysis....better forecasts....there really isn't much debate

I wasn't arguing anything, and your point is well taken. Our hybrid enkf/var implementation is on track for spring 2012.

[Typhoon Tip]

It is interesting that the GFS was the most adament about this system since prior to its even existing and now it and it's ensemble mean are heavily clustered, yet we are reticent to accept it. The ECM on the other hand seems to have lacked some continuity over the last day and half with this thing. Not that any model was all that great - no, but the growing consensus and obvious trend toward more right track being off set by a discontinuity run of the ECM being slightly W again strikes me as risky.

[Typhoon Tip]

very CDO looking recently...

[Typhoon Tip]

12z Euro ensembles in and show tight agreement through 96 hours, then a muddled mess beyond that...less out to sea scenarios, but a couple more FL scenarios, with centers ranging from up the coast to the FL panhandle. Also higher heights overall in the Northeast. This tells me that something is awry with the speed of this storm as it moves up the coast. And to that end it is slower than the 00z ensembles as well. Long way to go on this one still. FWIW, the ens. "mean" is in line with the Op Euro and overall seems slightly further west than 00z as well...still would favor an NC/SC border storm.

It's interesting that for the operational run, day 4 is the interval that it goes from unearthly accurate to pretty much not much better than any other guidance in a hurry. I wonder if there is any significance there in the mop ending ensembles, seeing that the spread begins on D4 with that.

[pcbjr]

12z Euro ensembles in and show tight agreement through 96 hours, then a muddled mess beyond that...less out to sea scenarios, but a couple more FL scenarios, with centers ranging from up the coast to the FL panhandle. Also higher heights overall in the Northeast. This tells me that something is awry with the speed of this storm as it moves up the coast. And to that end it is slower than the 00z ensembles as well. Long way to go on this one still. FWIW, the ens. "mean" is in line with the Op Euro and overall seems slightly further west than 00z as well...still would favor an NC/SC border storm.

Is it possible to post those 12z Euro ensembles?

[ezweather]

Absolutely has that look. Going to be a very interesting night to see how this system behaves as it just scrapes by DR. Irene is certainly a large tropical system..

very CDO looking recently...

[phil882]

Ok, except that observations also have errors. To be honest, I'm not sure how meaningful this 'more accurate thing' is for a single observation at a single time.

I say this without having looked at much stuff myself in detail. It's entirely possible that your interpretation is correct, but difficult to draw this conclusion from a single observation.

Fair enough... here's to hopeing the G-IV mission ongoing will help solve some of these model disputes!

I wasn't arguing anything, and your point is well taken. Our hybrid enkf/var implementation is on track for spring 2012.

Thats something I am very much looking forward to.

[chris87]

I wasn't arguing anything, and your point is well taken. Our hybrid enkf/var implementation is on track for spring 2012.

Yeah i've heard good things with regards to that system.

[CT Rain]

12z Euro ensembles in and show tight agreement through 96 hours, then a muddled mess beyond that...less out to sea scenarios, but a couple more FL scenarios, with centers ranging from up the coast to the FL panhandle. Also higher heights overall in the Northeast. This tells me that something is awry with the speed of this storm as it moves up the coast. And to that end it is slower than the 00z ensembles as well. Long way to go on this one still. FWIW, the ens. "mean" is in line with the Op Euro and overall seems slightly further west than 00z as well...still would favor an NC/SC border storm.

Yeah the 12z Euro ensemble members are literally all over the map. It seems a fair number of them are stalling the system off the SE coast... a fair number are clustered near the op run... and another fair number are a bit faster or simply east of the op run with a Mid Atlantic/New England hit.

Something to keep in mind that if the ridging builds in more than progged by the end of this week... and there's not as much of a weakness as most of the op runs have been showing a stall scenario is possible.

[OKpowdah]

Overall a shift east with the 18z dyn-stat runs

[Southland Wx]

Can't post so you'll have to take my word on it. Sorry.

LEK: Honestly, it just stretches out the precip. At 150 it has the hvy precip axis mean from just E of JAX all the way due north to NYC. Which implies 0 consistency w/in the ensemble members. At that same hour, various members range from centered over West Palm Beach, Albany, GA north to Presque Isle, ME. It's an absolutely cluster#@& beyond 120 hours.

[yoda]

11am NHC position -- 19.2N 67.5W

2pm NHC position -- 19.3N 68.1W

5pm NHC position -- 19.5N 68.6W

6 hr track -- 0.3 N 1.1 W

[yoda]

[am19psu]

FWIW, the 12z GFS EnKF shows basically the same thing as the ops.

[GaWx]

PSUBlizzicane2007 said in the prior thread regarding the 12Z HWRF's 916 mb near 32N, 80W:

"You know... I honestly can't remember the last time any model... including the intensification happy GFDL and HWRF... forecasted such a strong system that far north off the east coast.

Can anyone remember anything similar?"

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Well, it isn't that close to the east coast, but the Euro did have some Igor (2010) runs with pressure lower than 916 mb at 32N or further north:

1) 9/14 0Z run 144 hour map: 914 mb at 33N, 66W

2) 9/17 0Z run 72 hour map: 914 mb at 33N, 65W

3) 9/17 12Z run 72 hour map: 912 mb at 35N, 65W

4) 9/18 0Z run 48 hour map: 911 mb at 32N, 65W

Igor's central SLP verified to be way up at 953 mb at 32 N, 66W, or about 40 mb higher than these runs. Also, it had an apparently altime lowest modeled SLP of 904 mb at 27N, 65W, from the 120 hour map of the 9/13 12Z run for Igor. It verified to be 945 mb or 41 mb higher! The lowest SLP for its entire lifetime was 924 MB at 19N. This is just one storm from 2010 that makes me very wary about the Euro when it has far lower pressure than the GFS and it is very low vs. climo for latitudes north of 25N. It did almost as poorly with Earl up in the 38N-42N area. In lower latitudes, it went batsh*t with Fiona, for which it had eight straight horrendous runs (seven of which either threatened or actually hit the U.S. with the following lowest SLP's (in mb) in various locations between the SW Atlantic and the GOM : 921, 908 (lowest of any Euro model run at that time since Katrina), 934, 930, 926, 939, 960, and 962. Its lowest verified way up at 998 mb!

[Southland Wx]

Anyone get a look at the FIM today? Not even sure if that's run at 12z and 00z, just 00z or what. I know what it is, I just don't know much about it. But I know NHC has referenced it a couple times with this storm. Just curious more than anything.