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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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Biggest takeaway from the Euro is a.) slower with the storm... b.) not really any further east...25 mi at most and at times it looks // to 00z run. and c.) not as drastic a change with the NE trough...if anything just a little slower to push it out. Heights are mostly unch. outside of that.

synoptically, wouldn't you say that is a fair track and speed based on the available upper air flow over time? If anything, this have given me more confidence that the eastward solutions seen from the 00z runs were not windshield wiping, but a truer trend in guidance.

Edit: That doesn't mean it can't and won't deviate back and forth, but that an upper coast primary hit is more likely.

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It got to 78W at hour 90 and then headed due north and did so to hour 126. At hour 132 it has almost stalled or drifted W. It is around 33N/78.5W or so.

Interesting...the EC is actually 1-2 degrees west of the GFS at 120 hours. Didn't someone say the ECMWF looked like it would fish this run? :whistle:

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Phil, with the storm on the north side of Shredoila, based on what I've heard you say, would the interaction with the island pull Irene more that direction?

That is my hunch... of course that's only one effect. The others are the subtropical ridge breaking down somewhat today, along with the fact that most of the convective activity on radar is lopsided towards the northern flank. The other two track influences are trying to pull it further north. That might help to explain the temporary slowdown as the competing influences are fighting for Irene's attention.

Of course I might just be micro-analyzing the situation too much, so we'll see!

Very Hazel-ish: a severe cyclone moving essentially due N into the SC/NC border area.

Liking this a lot more than that GFS crap.

Careful though... while this has a Hazel "track" it is not a Hazel solution, which had a very strong phasing solution with a strong subtropical jet. This system is just crawling at 120 hours up the coastline with little shortwave influence.

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Careful though... while this has a Hazel "track" it is not a Hazel solution, which had a very strong phasing solution with a strong subtropical jet. This system is just crawling at 120 hours up the coastline with little shortwave influence.

The analogy was only in regard to landfall point, heading, and intensity.

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blow by blow on the euro seems like a bit much for a storm 4-5 days from landfall.

This looks more like a snowstorm threat thread than a hurricane thread...

yes.. we already noted to only focus on the landfall here and not to repeat posts. inland track etc should go to subforums for now.

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Interesting. If it travels slowly enough, does it in essence "miss" each of the next three troughs (only temporarily feeling the northward pull as the trough makes its closest approach)?

In other words, I'm wondering if perhaps the biggest difference in solutions stems from differences in the handling of the forward speed early on... so that a faster Irene would get swept up by the second or third trough (a la the GFS), whereas a slower Irene would end up missing all three and drifting northwestward.

This seems to support that idea at least a little:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early2.png

The "best fit" line through the forecast points of any particular hour would be about perpendicular to the track if speed didn't matter, but it seems they're skewed at least a little so that the faster storms are the further north ones.

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In other words, I'm wondering if perhaps the biggest difference in solutions stems from differences in the handling of the forward speed early on... so that a faster Irene would get swept up by the second or third trough (a la the GFS), whereas a slower Irene would end up missing all three and drifting northwestward.

This seems to support that idea at least a little:

http://euler.atmos.c...rack_early2.png

The "best fit" line through the forecast points of any particular hour would be about perpendicular to the track if speed didn't matter, but it seems they're skewed at least a little so that the faster storms are the further north ones.

Agree. I posted this earlier with the HWRF. It was slower in the 12Z run and pulled the storm further W than 6Z. Something to watch for sure.

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When did this model start going down hill? Remember, it was pretty good, but I guess its gone down hill. Definitely proceed with caution on some of the models.

The GFDL has been awful, this will not hit FL. Posting what this model is doing with this storm is a waste of bandwidth.

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The GFDL has been awful, this will not hit FL. Posting what this model is doing with this storm is a waste of bandwidth.

I would argue that the only post here that "wastes bandwidth" is your own - an unsubstantiated judgment on a widely used numerical model, and an attack on a post I (and probably others) found useful?

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A compromise between the euro and gfs would annihilate many areas.

Anywhere along the Carolina coastline from Hilton Head to Wilmington is bad news, truthfully. There's not much between Isle of Palms, SC, and Georgetown, SC, but northeast of there the tourist mecca of the Grand Strand, and from there Carolina Beach, ILM, and Wrightsville Beach, lie in wait. My girlfriend is from the Wilmington area, and according to her, tourist season likely hasn't wound down just yet. A major hurricane making landfall in any of those areas now is just scary to think of. yikes.png

I realize it's happened many times before, but as was discussed earlier in this thread, the growth through the last several years in this area is tremendous.

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When did this model start going down hill? Remember, it was pretty good, but I guess its gone down hill. Definitely proceed with caution on some of the models.

I recall after the GFS upgrade it took a nose dive? Not sure though. The east shift has been quite tantilizing though, though the trends/configurations in the ridging on the 12z ECMWF are a bit differently oriented than the GGEM/GFS.

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I would argue that the only post here that "wastes bandwidth" is your own - an unsubstantiated judgment on a widely used numerical model, and an attack on a post I (and probably others) found useful?

Why do you find a model useful that misses by about 500 miles from 3 days out? It's like using the NAM QPF in the winter.

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Why do you find a model useful that misses by about 500 miles from 3 days out? It's like using the NAM QPF in the winter.

Historically, it's in the top 3 in accuracy. I agree it has been off so far, but we need to understand why. What is it seeing that others are not? 12Z (finally) initialized the storm pretty well, and it was still W, so the theory of poor initialization is out.

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