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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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Me too. NHC has been awful, they should not be looking at the GFDL at all. The east edge of their cone in the Outer Banks may be the best chance of landfall.

Really? I'm going to vehemently disagree with you. The NHC has always been conservative when it comes to changing tracks in response to sudden model shifts, for one, and two, it is understandable to at least look at the GFDL when it is further west when it typically has a poleward bias... especially when considering the GFS underforecasting of the ridge.

With that said, with the UKMET shift east... they will likely shift much further east with the next forecast package.

I say we back off the "definite fish/brushing" talk until we have a more solid set of obs from the G-IV, etc. plugged in to the models.

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Yep. And the new position shows a much more W motion: 19.3N 68.1W compared with 19.2N 67.5W at 10 am EDT.

It's definitely nudging more W.

I still think the center may pass over northern Hispaniola. A very rough extrapolation of the TPW loops still shows a mostly-westward motion of the large-scale tropical system:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html

You can see the small-scale swirl of Irene start near Barbados, and head due northwest from there towards PR. But since then, it has been heading almost due west. I would not be surprised to even see brief wobbles south of due west over the next 24 hours or so.

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I don't understand that if the recent trends are just now showing Irene way east, why are there people knocking the NHC for putting out discussions of the most likely scenerios at the time when the models showing SE coast land fall ruled the day? I didn't see anyone saying 'out to sea" except the one guy who got his post erased. Just a question.

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A number of arc clouds ejecting westward. Indicative of dry air entrainment

Yep, but we saw this too to the SE of Puerto Rico yesterday, and it had little impact on the system as it continued to intensify.

Plus the flow from that air over on the other side of Hispaniola has to go over the mountains and back down before it gets ingested into the central core of Irene. Overall, the actual dry air itself has little impact on the storm, but the downsloping drying effect from Hispaniola does. It may not intensify much over the next 24 hours, but don't be too quick to believe it is because of the upper level dry air to the NW of the storm.

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At this point, dare we say it, we want at least a little bit of interaction with Hispaniola? Anything to keep it as far west as possible is a good thing, and it still would have plenty of time to regroup.

I've come to the conclusion that it's best to just watch and wait because you just drive yourself crazy. Last night I was growing weary of a westward jog taking it bodily into the N half of Hisp, then earlier today OTS scenarios became more viable, now we maybe seeing a bit more land interaction.

Best course of action is to just kick back, enjoy the show and keep emotional investment to a minimum because it's a very fluid situation over which we have zero contol.

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Biggest takeaway from the Euro is a.) slower with the storm... b.) not really any further east...25 mi at most and at times it looks // to 00z run. and c.) not as drastic a change with the NE trough...if anything just a little slower to push it out. Heights are mostly unch. outside of that.

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Biggest takeaway from the Euro is a.) slower with the storm... b.) not really any further east...25 mi at most and at times it looks // to 00z run. and c.) not as drastic a change with the NE trough...if anything just a little slower to push it out. Heights are mostly unch. outside of that.

hr 120 its 12 hrs slower than the 0z run...also the trof across the north in the upper lakes is faster.

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