PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Me too. NHC has been awful, they should not be looking at the GFDL at all. The east edge of their cone in the Outer Banks may be the best chance of landfall. Really? I'm going to vehemently disagree with you. The NHC has always been conservative when it comes to changing tracks in response to sudden model shifts, for one, and two, it is understandable to at least look at the GFDL when it is further west when it typically has a poleward bias... especially when considering the GFS underforecasting of the ridge. With that said, with the UKMET shift east... they will likely shift much further east with the next forecast package. I say we back off the "definite fish/brushing" talk until we have a more solid set of obs from the G-IV, etc. plugged in to the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Didn't they show Earl really low last year? I don't recall it being that low, though, and certainly not as it is approaching the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 A number of arc clouds ejecting westward. Indicative of dry air entrainment am19psu EDIT: pulled the attachment... here is NHC visible loop showing the same thing: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yep. And the new position shows a much more W motion: 19.3N 68.1W compared with 19.2N 67.5W at 10 am EDT. It's definitely nudging more W. I still think the center may pass over northern Hispaniola. A very rough extrapolation of the TPW loops still shows a mostly-westward motion of the large-scale tropical system: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html You can see the small-scale swirl of Irene start near Barbados, and head due northwest from there towards PR. But since then, it has been heading almost due west. I would not be surprised to even see brief wobbles south of due west over the next 24 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I don't understand that if the recent trends are just now showing Irene way east, why are there people knocking the NHC for putting out discussions of the most likely scenerios at the time when the models showing SE coast land fall ruled the day? I didn't see anyone saying 'out to sea" except the one guy who got his post erased. Just a question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I don't recall it being that low, though, and certainly not as it is approaching the coast. Yea I can't remember.. I just remember someone posting some question like that during Earl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 A couple of arc clouds ejecting westward. Indicative of dry air entrainment I'd imagine that is temporary and a byproduct of the close pass to Hisp.....should be good in about 24. Nice catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 At this point, dare we say it, we want at least a little bit of interaction with Hispaniola? Anything to keep it as far west as possible is a good thing, and it still would have plenty of time to regroup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 72 EURO is raking the bahamas... 967mb -- http://raleighwx.ame...500mbSLP072.gif About 300 miles SE of MIA rough guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 hr 90 of the euro has irene passing the far eastern tip of grand bahama island/ inbetween grand bahama and abaco island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 A number of arc clouds ejecting westward. Indicative of dry air entrainment Yep, but we saw this too to the SE of Puerto Rico yesterday, and it had little impact on the system as it continued to intensify. Plus the flow from that air over on the other side of Hispaniola has to go over the mountains and back down before it gets ingested into the central core of Irene. Overall, the actual dry air itself has little impact on the storm, but the downsloping drying effect from Hispaniola does. It may not intensify much over the next 24 hours, but don't be too quick to believe it is because of the upper level dry air to the NW of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 There is a banter thread, folks, for banter posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 At this point, dare we say it, we want at least a little bit of interaction with Hispaniola? Anything to keep it as far west as possible is a good thing, and it still would have plenty of time to regroup. I've come to the conclusion that it's best to just watch and wait because you just drive yourself crazy. Last night I was growing weary of a westward jog taking it bodily into the N half of Hisp, then earlier today OTS scenarios became more viable, now we maybe seeing a bit more land interaction. Best course of action is to just kick back, enjoy the show and keep emotional investment to a minimum because it's a very fluid situation over which we have zero contol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 thru 108 looks fairly similar trackwise.. perhaps a smidge east but also about 6 hrs slower. rain bands just hitting se coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 hr 90 of the euro has irene passing the far eastern tip of grand bahama island/ inbetween grand bahama and abaco island 96 -- http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeurotropical500mbSLP096.gif 960 mb Is that the ridge trying to build back in E of the East Coast? If so.. could hold Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Biggest takeaway from the Euro is a.) slower with the storm... b.) not really any further east...25 mi at most and at times it looks // to 00z run. and c.) not as drastic a change with the NE trough...if anything just a little slower to push it out. Heights are mostly unch. outside of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 hr 120 appears to be still heading NNW , NC should get hit this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Serious RIC from hr 96 (960mb) to 120... (936mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Biggest takeaway from the Euro is a.) slower with the storm... b.) not really any further east...25 mi at most and at times it looks // to 00z run. and c.) not as drastic a change with the NE trough...if anything just a little slower to push it out. Heights are mostly unch. outside of that. hr 120 its 12 hrs slower than the 0z run...also the trof across the north in the upper lakes is faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 euro look like MYR to ILM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 hr 126 looks like landfall will be around or just to the east of morehead city, nc... its about 75 miles offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12 Z ECM @ 120 hrs This run seems slower with the cyclone compared to 00z..and not much difference via track. However, the moral of the story is that it is still showing a potent system along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looking at the Euro, the trough may just exit in time to avoid a fish-out- I say MYR to the Outer banks better watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Serious RIC from hr 96 (960mb) to 120... (936mb) More and more, this is starting to look like a very unique set up in terms of extremely favorable conditions as Irene begins to head just north of the Bahamas. These kinds of rare set ups is how the GA/SC/NC coastal areas get significant landfalling systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 lokos like landfall or close at 132 (0z sunday) right near nc/sc border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 hr 126 looks like landfall will be around or just to the east of moorehead city, nc... its about 75 miles offshore It got to 78W at hour 90 and then headed due north and did so to hour 126. At hour 132 it has almost stalled or drifted W. It is around 33N/78.5W or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Very Hazel-ish: a severe cyclone moving essentially due N into the SC/NC border area. Liking this a lot more than that GFS crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Canadian looks similar to GFS at 96 hours, looks like extreme eastern NC brush comign up at 108. Canadian is quite a bit faster though, has Irene up at the latitude of CHS at 96 hours, while the GFS has it down around DAB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 no doubt west after landfall.. still heading inland slowly along nc/sc border at 138 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Storm is absolutely crawling onshore into the Carolinas. 12z Euro looks a bit west from 00z.... now over NC/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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