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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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Last four of the GFS...trend has been a good bit to the east.

Will it do the trend back west down the stretch like it does w/ coastals outside of the tropical season? ;)

Considering the GFS tends to have a bias to "dig" northern stream troughs a bit too much (which is why it generally has a "SE bias" in the winter), it wouldn't surprise me at all if it trends back to the west.

That being said, the strength/positioning of the trough is just one of many components that will directly impact its track. If the "friction" from Hispaniola doesn't "help" out in keeping it a bit southward, then the grazes/OTS scenarios certainly become plausible.

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One thing to watch the next 24 hours is if the storm trends more W vs WNW as it passes along the north short of Hispaniola. This has happened before. The shift east in the guidance is obvious and without an upper low over the Deep South many times it is difficult to get these re-curving storms to keep much of a westward component once they start to re-curve. The strong west Atlantic ridge will keep it from going much further east than 75W before crossing 35N, but a miss or Outer Banks brush is certainly on the table.

If we do see the landmass of Hispaniola interact with the system and possibly keep a bit south of where the thinking is now the next 24 hours, than the re-curve may happen a bit further west and the models could trend west again. The next 24 hours are pretty big for this system.

Agree with your thoughts Allan... I'm still waiting to see if we have any substantial interaction with Hispaniola over the next 12-24 hours, as that could cause the model consensus to shift west if we see any significant weakening.

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DT on the book:

"12Z MONDAY AUG 22 GFS MODEL UDPATE - the 12 gfs continues to bend IRENE North well east of FLORIDA... much like we saw with Irene in 1999. The Model has landfall at WILMINGTON NC. But the 12z GFS has a ERRRO in its Jet stream pattern at day 5 thru day 7 which causes the Model to bend IRENE further East.... BE CAREFUL USING THE GFS PAST 120 HRS......

" for u weather geeks out there -- at 120 hrs the 12z GFS has strong 2nd trough moving into the western Great Lakes . This trough comes in from western Canada where there is MAJOR "data void". Because of the GFS Model cold bais the model is OVERDOING this 2nd trough as it moves into the Great Lakes ... anf this torugh then knocks Irene further east."

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30 GFS runs since 8/15 showing U.S. hit: (0Z, 6Z, 12Z, 18Z)

8/15: (starting with 6Z): ILM, LA, Davidish

8/16: Tampa, Pensacola, MS, Davidish

8/17: Panhandle, S FL, S SC, WPB to ILM

8/18: Ft. Myers, Big Bend, Sarasota, Galveston

8/19: MS, Big Bend, Panama City, Apalachicola

8/20: S FL, S FL, S FL, S FL

8/21: WPB, WPB, S SC, S SC

8/22: SAV, ILM to L.I., Bobish

Patterns? One could look at this as windshield wiperish (I know that this term is being overused these days ;)) during 8/15-18, when it was ~10-13 days away. However, one could also say that the overall trend since 8/19 (the last 15 runs or so) has been further east. There were eight straight Gulf hits 8/18-9, then six straight S FL hits, then 3 straight hits near the GA/SC border, and now two up the NE coast.

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DT on the book:

"12Z MONDAY AUG 22 GFS MODEL UDPATE - the 12 gfs continues to bend IRENE North well east of FLORIDA... much like we saw with Irene in 1999. The Model has landfall at WILMINGTON NC. But the 12z GFS has a ERRRO in its Jet stream pattern at day 5 thru day 7 which causes the Model to bend IRENE further East.... BE CAREFUL USING THE GFS PAST 120 HRS......

" for u weather geeks out there -- at 120 hrs the 12z GFS has strong 2nd trough moving into the western Great Lakes . This trough comes in from western Canada where there is MAJOR "data void". Because of the GFS Model cold bais the model is OVERDOING this 2nd trough as it moves into the Great Lakes ... anf this torugh then knocks Irene further east."

Irene of 99 made landfall in Florida from the South, emerged over the Atlantic and then headed out to sea just before another landfall in South Carolina.

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11 AM was at 300 degrees, 2 pm is 290 degrees, so a smidge more to the west

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

200 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011

...IRENE MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.3N 68.1W

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO

ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES

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Me too. NHC has been awful, they should not be looking at the GFDL at all. The east edge of their cone in the Outer Banks may be the best chance of landfall.

I know that in this business there is almost no such thing as a sure thing but at this point is SE Florida off of the table?

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I know that in this business there is almost no such thing as a sure thing but at this point is SE Florida off of the table?

No, though it is looking less likely. Wait until the 0z runs tonight with G-IV data and a properly sampled shortwave before we start making any declarations.

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Me too. NHC has been awful, they should not be looking at the GFDL at all. The east edge of their cone in the Outer Banks may be the best chance of landfall.

It's really kind of early to rip them a new one, don't you think?

The models could be doing the windshield-wiping thing, for all we know. Let's see another run or two, first, to assess if this is a real trend. The 00Z run should be particularly enlightening with the high-res upper-air data.

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You know... I honestly can't remember the last time any model... including the intensification happy GFDL and HWRF... forecasted such a strong system that far north off the east coast.

Can anyone remember anything similar?

Didn't they show Earl really low last year?

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