phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 TJUA is back up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Last four of the GFS...trend has been a good bit to the east. Will it do the trend back west down the stretch like it does w/ coastals outside of the tropical season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Canadian looks similar to GFS at 96 hours, looks like extreme eastern NC brush comign up at 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Last four of the GFS...trend has been a good bit to the east. Will it do the trend back west down the stretch like it does w/ coastals outside of the tropical season? Considering the GFS tends to have a bias to "dig" northern stream troughs a bit too much (which is why it generally has a "SE bias" in the winter), it wouldn't surprise me at all if it trends back to the west. That being said, the strength/positioning of the trough is just one of many components that will directly impact its track. If the "friction" from Hispaniola doesn't "help" out in keeping it a bit southward, then the grazes/OTS scenarios certainly become plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 One thing to watch the next 24 hours is if the storm trends more W vs WNW as it passes along the north short of Hispaniola. This has happened before. The shift east in the guidance is obvious and without an upper low over the Deep South many times it is difficult to get these re-curving storms to keep much of a westward component once they start to re-curve. The strong west Atlantic ridge will keep it from going much further east than 75W before crossing 35N, but a miss or Outer Banks brush is certainly on the table. If we do see the landmass of Hispaniola interact with the system and possibly keep a bit south of where the thinking is now the next 24 hours, than the re-curve may happen a bit further west and the models could trend west again. The next 24 hours are pretty big for this system. Agree with your thoughts Allan... I'm still waiting to see if we have any substantial interaction with Hispaniola over the next 12-24 hours, as that could cause the model consensus to shift west if we see any significant weakening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 DT on the book: "12Z MONDAY AUG 22 GFS MODEL UDPATE - the 12 gfs continues to bend IRENE North well east of FLORIDA... much like we saw with Irene in 1999. The Model has landfall at WILMINGTON NC. But the 12z GFS has a ERRRO in its Jet stream pattern at day 5 thru day 7 which causes the Model to bend IRENE further East.... BE CAREFUL USING THE GFS PAST 120 HRS...... " for u weather geeks out there -- at 120 hrs the 12z GFS has strong 2nd trough moving into the western Great Lakes . This trough comes in from western Canada where there is MAJOR "data void". Because of the GFS Model cold bais the model is OVERDOING this 2nd trough as it moves into the Great Lakes ... anf this torugh then knocks Irene further east." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 30 GFS runs since 8/15 showing U.S. hit: (0Z, 6Z, 12Z, 18Z) 8/15: (starting with 6Z): ILM, LA, Davidish 8/16: Tampa, Pensacola, MS, Davidish 8/17: Panhandle, S FL, S SC, WPB to ILM 8/18: Ft. Myers, Big Bend, Sarasota, Galveston 8/19: MS, Big Bend, Panama City, Apalachicola 8/20: S FL, S FL, S FL, S FL 8/21: WPB, WPB, S SC, S SC 8/22: SAV, ILM to L.I., Bobish Patterns? One could look at this as windshield wiperish (I know that this term is being overused these days ) during 8/15-18, when it was ~10-13 days away. However, one could also say that the overall trend since 8/19 (the last 15 runs or so) has been further east. There were eight straight Gulf hits 8/18-9, then six straight S FL hits, then 3 straight hits near the GA/SC border, and now two up the NE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Extrap 985.0mb, close to a due west motion along 19.15N since the last fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 DT on the book: "12Z MONDAY AUG 22 GFS MODEL UDPATE - the 12 gfs continues to bend IRENE North well east of FLORIDA... much like we saw with Irene in 1999. The Model has landfall at WILMINGTON NC. But the 12z GFS has a ERRRO in its Jet stream pattern at day 5 thru day 7 which causes the Model to bend IRENE further East.... BE CAREFUL USING THE GFS PAST 120 HRS...... " for u weather geeks out there -- at 120 hrs the 12z GFS has strong 2nd trough moving into the western Great Lakes . This trough comes in from western Canada where there is MAJOR "data void". Because of the GFS Model cold bais the model is OVERDOING this 2nd trough as it moves into the Great Lakes ... anf this torugh then knocks Irene further east." Irene of 99 made landfall in Florida from the South, emerged over the Atlantic and then headed out to sea just before another landfall in South Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Irene of 99 made landfall in Florida from the South, emerged over the Atlantic and then headed out to sea just before another landfall in South Carolina. and he's raving about the GFS cold bias... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12Z HWRF is 916 mb just off of CHS. The entire run is about 75 miles S and W of 6Z and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looks like either shred-ola is beginning to do what it always does or Irene is choking on dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looks like either shred-ola is beginning to do what it always does or Irene is choking on dry air. also getting toward the edge of the San Juan radar...hence a poor radar presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlestonNYC Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12Z HWRF is 916 mb just off of CHS. The entire run is about 75 miles S and W of 6Z and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'm there. Me too. NHC has been awful, they should not be looking at the GFDL at all. The east edge of their cone in the Outer Banks may be the best chance of landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 11 AM was at 300 degrees, 2 pm is 290 degrees, so a smidge more to the west BULLETIN HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 200 PM AST MON AUG 22 2011 ...IRENE MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 68.1W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z UKIE still apears to have landfall near SC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Me too. NHC has been awful, they should not be looking at the GFDL at all. The east edge of their cone in the Outer Banks may be the best chance of landfall. I know that in this business there is almost no such thing as a sure thing but at this point is SE Florida off of the table? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 fwiw through hr 36 the euro is a lot stronger and further east than the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 You know... I honestly can't remember the last time any model... including the intensification happy GFDL and HWRF... forecasted such a strong system that far north off the east coast. Can anyone remember anything similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I know that in this business there is almost no such thing as a sure thing but at this point is SE Florida off of the table? No, though it is looking less likely. Wait until the 0z runs tonight with G-IV data and a properly sampled shortwave before we start making any declarations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 NHC positions: 11 AM adv -- 19.2N 67.5 W 2 PM adv -- 19.3N 68.1W Track of .1N .6W in the last 3 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z UKIE still apears to landfall near SC: Not still, the 00z was along the west coast of Florida with a landfall apparently around Tampa. That's a big shift east with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 11 AM was at 300 degrees, 2 pm is 290 degrees, so a smidge more to the west Yep. And the new position shows a much more W motion: 19.3N 68.1W compared with 19.2N 67.5W at 10 am EDT. It's definitely nudging more W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 fwiw through hr 36 the euro is a lot stronger and further east than the 0z run. Yeah, through 48 it's 75-100 miles NE of 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Me too. NHC has been awful, they should not be looking at the GFDL at all. The east edge of their cone in the Outer Banks may be the best chance of landfall. It's really kind of early to rip them a new one, don't you think? The models could be doing the windshield-wiping thing, for all we know. Let's see another run or two, first, to assess if this is a real trend. The 00Z run should be particularly enlightening with the high-res upper-air data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Based on a comparison to the 0z Euro as of hour 54 of the 12Z, I'm guessing the 1Z Euro will show a fish! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 per euro at hr 54 the trough in the midwest is a little stronger than the 0z....track still remains a little to the east of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 You know... I honestly can't remember the last time any model... including the intensification happy GFDL and HWRF... forecasted such a strong system that far north off the east coast. Can anyone remember anything similar? Didn't they show Earl really low last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.