Dunkman Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z GFS initialized at 1003mb...not sure exactly how much that throws it's output into doubt but it can't be ideal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Noticed the TPC track takes this just east/over Nassau. Should be able to get some great LR radar images out of Miami when it's passing by in a few days. Especially if it skirts just offshore Florida heading NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 does anybody else think we see rapid intensification, I know with the center passing fairly close to Hispanolia, that would act as a limiting factor, but land interaction seems less an less likely. I'm just wondering if we wake up in 3 days with a high end major before the system even reaches the western Bahamas. I'm thinking that Irene will more or less hold its own over the next 12-24 hours if it remains over open waters. Even if the center is not passing over Hispaniola, its southerly inflow will be forced to decend on the leeward side the mountainous terrain. This adiabatic sinking will have a dry warming effect on the parcels and tend to inhibit convection closer to the core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 12z GFS initialized at 1003mb...not sure exactly how much that throws it's output into doubt but it can't be ideal. for some reason the models have come in with the wrong pressure, but the forecast from all of them is rapid strengthening once its just north of eastern Cuba. Thats probably the most important thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0 That radar signature indicates to me Irene is slowing. Looks like she has been stationary the past two hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Still having trouble with the south part of the eye. Net gain from the last fix was +10 min N, +22 min W 000 URNT12 KNHC 221545 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 22/15:27:40Z B. 19 deg 09 min N 067 deg 42 min W C. 700 mb 2984 m D. 73 kt E. 312 deg 13 nm F. 015 deg 55 kt G. 312 deg 13 nm H. 989 mb I. 10 C / 3051 m J. 16 C / 3040 m K. 8 C / NA L. OPEN SE-SW M. C25 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 0409A IRENE OB 12 MAX FL WIND 72 KT NE QUAD 13:48:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Not nitpicking but just noting that's a little south of Charleston which is the worst case scenario for the city. No, it's a really good point, and I noticed that, too. I know you know this, but a lot of people don't realize that Charleston actually got a touch lucky with Hugo, being in the left eyewall. It would have been way worse had the cyclone made landfall 10-20 mi further SW. Yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Still having trouble with the south part of the eye. Net gain from the last fix was +10 min N, +22 min W 000 URNT12 KNHC 221545 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 22/15:27:40Z B. 19 deg 09 min N 067 deg 42 min W C. 700 mb 2984 m D. 73 kt E. 312 deg 13 nm F. 015 deg 55 kt G. 312 deg 13 nm H. 989 mb I. 10 C / 3051 m J. 16 C / 3040 m K. 8 C / NA L. OPEN SE-SW M. C25 N. 12345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 0409A IRENE OB 12 MAX FL WIND 72 KT NE QUAD 13:48:30Z I don't understand, they got a reading of 984 mb, but decided to go with 989? 464 URNT15 KNHC 221530 AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 31 20110822 152030 1927N 06801W 6969 03089 9973 +096 //// 065049 050 048 001 01 152100 1925N 06759W 6965 03089 9963 +100 //// 061046 047 049 001 01 152130 1924N 06758W 6967 03080 9945 +111 +093 056047 048 050 002 03 152200 1923N 06757W 6966 03076 9917 +131 +070 055049 050 051 002 00 152230 1922N 06756W 6980 03054 9903 +138 +074 054050 051 051 002 00 152300 1921N 06754W 6961 03070 9913 +120 +091 046048 049 049 003 00 152330 1919N 06753W 6954 03068 9879 +144 +069 030049 052 057 006 00 152400 1918N 06752W 6983 03023 9849 +163 +054 019052 055 073 001 00 152430 1917N 06750W 6956 03060 9855 +154 +076 023047 054 068 001 03 152500 1915N 06749W 6983 03022 9863 +142 +096 045027 034 058 002 03 152530 1914N 06748W 6957 03048 9850 +147 +087 042016 018 041 000 03 152600 1913N 06746W 6970 03027 9840 +155 +084 031011 012 034 000 03 152630 1912N 06745W 6963 03033 9850 +143 +087 046009 010 032 000 03 152700 1910N 06743W 6968 03023 9846 +141 +086 059006 007 029 001 03 152730 1909N 06742W 6970 03020 9847 +141 +087 068001 004 029 001 00 152800 1908N 06741W 6962 03029 9843 +145 +085 209002 003 032 000 00 152830 1907N 06739W 6969 03028 9842 +150 +085 169004 006 034 001 00 152900 1905N 06738W 6966 03034 9849 +149 +082 183012 014 036 001 00 152930 1904N 06736W 6970 03033 9874 +128 +096 209017 018 043 000 03 153000 1904N 06735W 6965 03045 9886 +123 +099 203022 025 049 000 00 $$ ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 That radar signature indicates to me Irene is slowing. Looks like she has been stationary the past two hours. Recon center fixes are 30 miles apart between 15:28 and 13:42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 No, it's a really good point, and I noticed that, too. I know you know this, but a lot of people don't realize that Charleston actually got a touch lucky with Hugo, being in the left eyewall. It would have been way worse had the cyclone made landfall 10-20 mi further SW. Yikes. and most of the city is below sea level downtown. You add in more storm surge by being in that NE quadrant and it's katrina jr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 and most of the city is below sea level downtown. You add in more storm surge by being in that NE quadrant and it's katrina jr. I did not know that. Very interesting. Wow-- they got even luckier than I realized with Hugo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Current Intensity Analysis UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 22 AUG 2011 Time : 144500 UTC Lat : 19:07:34 N Lon : 67:55:57 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.5 / 978.7mb/ 77.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.8 4.1 4.1 Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 85km - Environmental MSLP : 1012mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I don't understand, they got a reading of 984 mb, but decided to go with 989? 464 URNT15 KNHC 221530 AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 31 20110822 152030 1927N 06801W 6969 03089 9973 +096 //// 065049 050 048 001 01 152100 1925N 06759W 6965 03089 9963 +100 //// 061046 047 049 001 01 152130 1924N 06758W 6967 03080 9945 +111 +093 056047 048 050 002 03 152200 1923N 06757W 6966 03076 9917 +131 +070 055049 050 051 002 00 152230 1922N 06756W 6980 03054 9903 +138 +074 054050 051 051 002 00 152300 1921N 06754W 6961 03070 9913 +120 +091 046048 049 049 003 00 152330 1919N 06753W 6954 03068 9879 +144 +069 030049 052 057 006 00 152400 1918N 06752W 6983 03023 9849 +163 +054 019052 055 073 001 00 152430 1917N 06750W 6956 03060 9855 +154 +076 023047 054 068 001 03 152500 1915N 06749W 6983 03022 9863 +142 +096 045027 034 058 002 03 152530 1914N 06748W 6957 03048 9850 +147 +087 042016 018 041 000 03 152600 1913N 06746W 6970 03027 9840 +155 +084 031011 012 034 000 03 152630 1912N 06745W 6963 03033 9850 +143 +087 046009 010 032 000 03 152700 1910N 06743W 6968 03023 9846 +141 +086 059006 007 029 001 03 152730 1909N 06742W 6970 03020 9847 +141 +087 068001 004 029 001 00 152800 1908N 06741W 6962 03029 9843 +145 +085 209002 003 032 000 00 152830 1907N 06739W 6969 03028 9842 +150 +085 169004 006 034 001 00 152900 1905N 06738W 6966 03034 9849 +149 +082 183012 014 036 001 00 152930 1904N 06736W 6970 03033 9874 +128 +096 209017 018 043 000 03 153000 1904N 06735W 6965 03045 9886 +123 +099 203022 025 049 000 00 $ ; The 984mb was an extrapolation from 3000 meters (700mb flight level), the 989mb was from a dropsonde which recorded the pressure at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 A look at recon fixes over the last few missions - *credit to Chris @ S2K* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The eye is trying to pop out. Irene needs to work on her sloppy CDO (Convective Dense Overcast). 12z GFS takes this northeast of Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I did not know that. Very interesting. Wow-- they got even luckier than I realized with Hugo. I remember watching a documentary of sorts about Hugo a long time ago, and they outlined very well just how lucky Charleston got with it. I don't remember all of the details, but suffice it to say, I don't think Charleston would be the same today. I wish I could remember who produced it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Current Intensity Analysis UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 22 AUG 2011 Time : 144500 UTC Lat : 19:07:34 N Lon : 67:55:57 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.5 / 978.7mb/ 77.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.8 4.1 4.1 Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 85km - Environmental MSLP : 1012mb ADT tends to overdo intensity. This would be a better alternative... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 GFS rolling in and dragging this about 75 miles east of the 00z run through 96 hours, likely in response to lower heights in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 GFS rolling in and dragging this about 75 miles east of the 00z run through 96 hours, likely in response to lower heights in the Northeast. There are pretty substantial differences in this run of the GFS. It is much more amplfied and slower with the trough digging into the NE, resulting in a lowering of heights more dramatically north of the system. In this way, it has trended strongly toward the ECMWF and looks very similar now as far as the upper pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 GFS rolling in and dragging this about 75 miles east of the 00z run through 96 hours, likely in response to lower heights in the Northeast. Might be west of 6Z then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 GFS rolling in and dragging this about 75 miles east of the 00z run through 96 hours, likely in response to lower heights in the Northeast. May be close to a miss as far as a landfall on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 GFS rolling in and dragging this about 75 miles east of the 00z run through 96 hours, likely in response to lower heights in the Northeast. yea this run is looking more like a NC. hit than SC through 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Latest loop out of TSJU, looks like TJUA is up but still not enough frames for a decent loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looks to be heading due north toward SE NC from 99 to 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 May be close to a miss as far as a landfall on this run. Looks to be heading due north toward SE NC from 99 to 108. Looks like a brush with Hatteras coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 this run is quite a bit further east. At 96 hours its free to wobble or shift direction, but by that time, its felt the strong effects of the first deep eastern US trough, so thats why its 200 miles east of Florida and gets dragged north /nw to around 300 miles east of GA coast . By 108 hours, a new trough in the wstern lakes is digging. There's not much ridging to steer it strongly nw. At 120, its still about 150 miles southeast of Wilmington. East trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looks like a brush with Hatteras coming. Gotta start looking at coastal brush as a potential scenario...could be Earl II. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looks like a brush with Hatteras coming. I'll believe it AFTER it hits Hispaniola. I think it will be interesting to see what the interaction with the island will do to Irene. Looking at that last radar loop, it appears to be headed directly that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southland Wx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Landfall near Ocracoke Isl, 135 hrs, 968 mb. Then a quick bounce just east of Hatteras back over the Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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