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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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does anybody else think we see rapid intensification, I know with the center passing fairly close to Hispanolia, that would act as a limiting factor, but land interaction seems less an less likely. I'm just wondering if we wake up in 3 days with a high end major before the system even reaches the western Bahamas.

I'm thinking that Irene will more or less hold its own over the next 12-24 hours if it remains over open waters. Even if the center is not passing over Hispaniola, its southerly inflow will be forced to decend on the leeward side the mountainous terrain. This adiabatic sinking will have a dry warming effect on the parcels and tend to inhibit convection closer to the core.

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12z GFS initialized at 1003mb...not sure exactly how much that throws it's output into doubt but it can't be ideal.

for some reason the models have come in with the wrong pressure, but the forecast from all of them is rapid strengthening once its just north of eastern Cuba. Thats probably the most important thing.

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Still having trouble with the south part of the eye.

Net gain from the last fix was +10 min N, +22 min W

000

URNT12 KNHC 221545

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 22/15:27:40Z

B. 19 deg 09 min N

067 deg 42 min W

C. 700 mb 2984 m

D. 73 kt

E. 312 deg 13 nm

F. 015 deg 55 kt

G. 312 deg 13 nm

H. 989 mb

I. 10 C / 3051 m

J. 16 C / 3040 m

K. 8 C / NA

L. OPEN SE-SW

M. C25

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF302 0409A IRENE OB 12

MAX FL WIND 72 KT NE QUAD 13:48:30Z

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Not nitpicking but just noting that's a little south of Charleston which is the worst case scenario for the city.

No, it's a really good point, and I noticed that, too. I know you know this, but a lot of people don't realize that Charleston actually got a touch lucky with Hugo, being in the left eyewall. It would have been way worse had the cyclone made landfall 10-20 mi further SW. Yikes.

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Still having trouble with the south part of the eye.

Net gain from the last fix was +10 min N, +22 min W

000

URNT12 KNHC 221545

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 22/15:27:40Z

B. 19 deg 09 min N

067 deg 42 min W

C. 700 mb 2984 m

D. 73 kt

E. 312 deg 13 nm

F. 015 deg 55 kt

G. 312 deg 13 nm

H. 989 mb

I. 10 C / 3051 m

J. 16 C / 3040 m

K. 8 C / NA

L. OPEN SE-SW

M. C25

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF302 0409A IRENE OB 12

MAX FL WIND 72 KT NE QUAD 13:48:30Z

I don't understand, they got a reading of 984 mb, but decided to go with 989?

464

URNT15 KNHC 221530

AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 31 20110822

152030 1927N 06801W 6969 03089 9973 +096 //// 065049 050 048 001 01

152100 1925N 06759W 6965 03089 9963 +100 //// 061046 047 049 001 01

152130 1924N 06758W 6967 03080 9945 +111 +093 056047 048 050 002 03

152200 1923N 06757W 6966 03076 9917 +131 +070 055049 050 051 002 00

152230 1922N 06756W 6980 03054 9903 +138 +074 054050 051 051 002 00

152300 1921N 06754W 6961 03070 9913 +120 +091 046048 049 049 003 00

152330 1919N 06753W 6954 03068 9879 +144 +069 030049 052 057 006 00

152400 1918N 06752W 6983 03023 9849 +163 +054 019052 055 073 001 00

152430 1917N 06750W 6956 03060 9855 +154 +076 023047 054 068 001 03

152500 1915N 06749W 6983 03022 9863 +142 +096 045027 034 058 002 03

152530 1914N 06748W 6957 03048 9850 +147 +087 042016 018 041 000 03

152600 1913N 06746W 6970 03027 9840 +155 +084 031011 012 034 000 03

152630 1912N 06745W 6963 03033 9850 +143 +087 046009 010 032 000 03

152700 1910N 06743W 6968 03023 9846 +141 +086 059006 007 029 001 03

152730 1909N 06742W 6970 03020 9847 +141 +087 068001 004 029 001 00

152800 1908N 06741W 6962 03029 9843 +145 +085 209002 003 032 000 00

152830 1907N 06739W 6969 03028 9842 +150 +085 169004 006 034 001 00

152900 1905N 06738W 6966 03034 9849 +149 +082 183012 014 036 001 00

152930 1904N 06736W 6970 03033 9874 +128 +096 209017 018 043 000 03

153000 1904N 06735W 6965 03045 9886 +123 +099 203022 025 049 000 00

$$

;

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No, it's a really good point, and I noticed that, too. I know you know this, but a lot of people don't realize that Charleston actually got a touch lucky with Hugo, being in the left eyewall. It would have been way worse had the cyclone made landfall 10-20 mi further SW. Yikes.

and most of the city is below sea level downtown. You add in more storm surge by being in that NE quadrant and it's katrina jr.

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Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 22 AUG 2011 Time : 144500 UTC Lat : 19:07:34 N Lon : 67:55:57 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.5 / 978.7mb/ 77.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.8 4.1 4.1 Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 85km - Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

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I don't understand, they got a reading of 984 mb, but decided to go with 989?

464

URNT15 KNHC 221530

AF302 0409A IRENE HDOB 31 20110822

152030 1927N 06801W 6969 03089 9973 +096 //// 065049 050 048 001 01

152100 1925N 06759W 6965 03089 9963 +100 //// 061046 047 049 001 01

152130 1924N 06758W 6967 03080 9945 +111 +093 056047 048 050 002 03

152200 1923N 06757W 6966 03076 9917 +131 +070 055049 050 051 002 00

152230 1922N 06756W 6980 03054 9903 +138 +074 054050 051 051 002 00

152300 1921N 06754W 6961 03070 9913 +120 +091 046048 049 049 003 00

152330 1919N 06753W 6954 03068 9879 +144 +069 030049 052 057 006 00

152400 1918N 06752W 6983 03023 9849 +163 +054 019052 055 073 001 00

152430 1917N 06750W 6956 03060 9855 +154 +076 023047 054 068 001 03

152500 1915N 06749W 6983 03022 9863 +142 +096 045027 034 058 002 03

152530 1914N 06748W 6957 03048 9850 +147 +087 042016 018 041 000 03

152600 1913N 06746W 6970 03027 9840 +155 +084 031011 012 034 000 03

152630 1912N 06745W 6963 03033 9850 +143 +087 046009 010 032 000 03

152700 1910N 06743W 6968 03023 9846 +141 +086 059006 007 029 001 03

152730 1909N 06742W 6970 03020 9847 +141 +087 068001 004 029 001 00

152800 1908N 06741W 6962 03029 9843 +145 +085 209002 003 032 000 00

152830 1907N 06739W 6969 03028 9842 +150 +085 169004 006 034 001 00

152900 1905N 06738W 6966 03034 9849 +149 +082 183012 014 036 001 00

152930 1904N 06736W 6970 03033 9874 +128 +096 209017 018 043 000 03

153000 1904N 06735W 6965 03045 9886 +123 +099 203022 025 049 000 00

$

;

The 984mb was an extrapolation from 3000 meters (700mb flight level), the 989mb was from a dropsonde which recorded the pressure at the surface.

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I did not know that. Very interesting. Wow-- they got even luckier than I realized with Hugo.

I remember watching a documentary of sorts about Hugo a long time ago, and they outlined very well just how lucky Charleston got with it. I don't remember all of the details, but suffice it to say, I don't think Charleston would be the same today.

I wish I could remember who produced it...

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Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 22 AUG 2011 Time : 144500 UTC Lat : 19:07:34 N Lon : 67:55:57 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.5 / 978.7mb/ 77.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.8 4.1 4.1 Center Temp : -72.0C Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 85km - Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

ADT tends to overdo intensity. This would be a better alternative...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html

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GFS rolling in and dragging this about 75 miles east of the 00z run through 96 hours, likely in response to lower heights in the Northeast.

There are pretty substantial differences in this run of the GFS. It is much more amplfied and slower with the trough digging into the NE, resulting in a lowering of heights more dramatically north of the system. In this way, it has trended strongly toward the ECMWF and looks very similar now as far as the upper pattern.

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this run is quite a bit further east. At 96 hours its free to wobble or shift direction, but by that time, its felt the strong effects of the first deep eastern US trough, so thats why its 200 miles east of Florida and gets dragged north /nw to around 300 miles east of GA coast . By 108 hours, a new trough in the wstern lakes is digging. There's not much ridging to steer it strongly nw. At 120, its still about 150 miles southeast of Wilmington. East trends continue.

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