Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 What relevance is this to Irene? We're discussing the environmental dry air ahead of the system that can be clearly seen propagating ahead of Irene in the TPW loop I posted. There is little shear around right now, which is why it hasn't negatively impacted the storm today. Relax. It has everything to do... Some of this "dry" mass is subsidence caused by the TC - yes. It is important to try and determine which is which. Please do not try to invalidate my contribution. You may not "intend" to do that, but you are coming across that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_084l.gif Andrew bend FTL? Did he say fish?..one model the old reliable Nocraps..has it not hiting land..most have some sort of landfall..god the NAM has it way west hitting Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....am_500_084l.gif Andrew bend FTL? It must be a NH thing because you and SnowNH won't give up on posting the NAM at 84 hours with a tropical system. It is of no value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Relax. It has everything to do... Some of this "dry" mass is subsidence caused by the TC - yes. It is important to try and determine which is which. Please do not try to invalidate my contribution. You may not "intend" to do that, but you are coming across that way. But what evidence is there that dry air is slowing it down? Td's look good, the TPW loop shows not much disruption, and there isn't really shear to advect it into the core of the storm anyways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Day 5: at Charleston with winds of 100 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I'm not saying dry air isn't bad - I'm saying that just because we see a ring of dry air around a TC does not mean it is inhibiting developement. Just need to be cognizant of the dry air source. For those unaware...the core of a TC is a SEA-AIR virtual coupled model, with subsidence surrounding the system; that is the primary source for the 'heat engine' - as it's called. If a TC bodily moves into the dry air, sure, that becomes a mass imbalance and that is when inhibition takes place. I do think, though, that there is some imbalance in the area. Lastly, I haven't seen that paper - I'll take a look.. But I'd be pretty impressed with how the authors got around clear and patently observed detrimental effects amid reels upon reels of satellite history. the connection between the dust itself and TC intensity isn't clear. The detriment due to the dry air itself, however, is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 SINCE THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA...AND THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND MAKES IRENE A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Typical bone-dry Avila discussion. hey...100 kt from Avila is pretty significant lol...that's like a 120 kt forecast from Stewart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 banter.. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/24115-hurricane-irene-banter-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solais Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Is there any chance this hits Florida or is SC pretty much a given? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 looks like downsloping from puerto rico is getting some dryer air into the system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Is there any chance this hits Florida or is SC pretty much a given? Florida is in the cone of uncertainty so there is always a chance. Track error is around 200-250 miles at 3-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Hard to have a fish storm when it already hit Puerto Rico? Another shift east but waiting for the 00Z run with the upper air data. Though at this rate, we could be talking about an Outer Banks brusher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Dave Williams said the models were going right, and another guy did too. The forecast synoptic setup strongly suggests a significant threat from GA to NC. I would not be surprised if the guidance eventually shifts back to the west, which means the FL east coast shouldn't get too cozy yet. Nothing in this pattern suggests a fish to me at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Please do not try to invalidate my contribution. You may not "intend" to do that, but you are coming across that way. I think the main argument right now is that Irene is in an environment of high Total Precipitable Water (TPW) and low shear. You have to have some advection of that dry air (shear) to induce a dry air intrusion. Even if we did have shear, the radius of high TPW is pretty large and the "dry air" around the system (outside of well to the west) is actually not that dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Hard to have a fish storm when it already hit Puerto Rico? Gert 81: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Dave Williams said the models were going right, and another guy did too. There's a difference between it going far enough right to miss CHS, and for it to be a fish. In order to be a fish, it will have to complete go right of the cone. That could happen, but given a well established steering pattern and decently agreeable models, it is pretty unlikely. Even with the significant reformations north during the early part of the period, Irene is still going to be within the 3-5 day cone from the early forecasts, albeit on the right side of the cone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneFrances04 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Gert 81: You're thinking fish relative to the CONUS. I'm thinking a storm that hit any land is not a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 TPC is in the middle of the consensus of the dynamical models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 But what evidence is there that dry air is slowing it down? Td's look good, the TPW loop shows not much disruption, and there isn't really shear to advect it into the core of the storm anyways... I think we are talking about the same thing in general; except I'm not really sure how we can be certain either way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I think the main argument right now is that Irene is in an environment of high Total Precipitable Water (TPW) and low shear. You have to have some advection of that dry air (shear) to induce a dry air intrusion. Even if we did have shear, the radius of high TPW is pretty large and the "dry air" around the system (outside of well to the west) is actually not that dry. ... I didn't really intend to make argument haha ...figures. But, there is some just NW of it, and I agree, you have to create an imbalance between the dry air that the TC creates due to subsidence around the TC, and that which is ambient. That's really what it is about... if the ambient dry air - that not produced by TC-related subsidence ring - adds additional mass and gets ingested, there you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 984.3mb extrap, reliable looking 73kt on SFMR, center roughly 19.15N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I didn't really intend to make argument haha ...figures. But, there is some just NW of it, and I agree, you have to create an imbalance between the dry air that the TC creates due to subsidence around the TC, and that which is ambient. That's really what it is about... if the ambient dry air - that not produced by TC-related subsidence ring - adds additional mass and gets ingested, there you go. I guess people assumed you were making that argument since you linked to a SAL map and then made a follow up post talking about "imbalances in the area". You just need to be more clear when you write. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 anyone have a link to that working radar from wxunderground out of PR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=SJU&type=TZL&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0 TY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Day 5: at Charleston with winds of 100 kt. Not nitpicking but just noting that's a little south of Charleston which is the worst case scenario for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 does anybody else think we see rapid intensification, I know with the center passing fairly close to Hispanolia, that would act as a limiting factor, but land interaction seems less an less likely. I'm just wondering if we wake up in 3 days with a high end major before the system even reaches the western Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I think the track cant get much further east, this may be another Ernesto/Floyd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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