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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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What relevance is this to Irene? We're discussing the environmental dry air ahead of the system that can be clearly seen propagating ahead of Irene in the TPW loop I posted. There is little shear around right now, which is why it hasn't negatively impacted the storm today.

Relax.

It has everything to do... Some of this "dry" mass is subsidence caused by the TC - yes. It is important to try and determine which is which.

Please do not try to invalidate my contribution. You may not "intend" to do that, but you are coming across that way.

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Relax.

It has everything to do... Some of this "dry" mass is subsidence caused by the TC - yes. It is important to try and determine which is which.

Please do not try to invalidate my contribution. You may not "intend" to do that, but you are coming across that way.

But what evidence is there that dry air is slowing it down? Td's look good, the TPW loop shows not much disruption, and there isn't really shear to advect it into the core of the storm anyways...

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I'm not saying dry air isn't bad - I'm saying that just because we see a ring of dry air around a TC does not mean it is inhibiting developement. Just need to be cognizant of the dry air source.

For those unaware...the core of a TC is a SEA-AIR virtual coupled model, with subsidence surrounding the system; that is the primary source for the 'heat engine' - as it's called.

If a TC bodily moves into the dry air, sure, that becomes a mass imbalance and that is when inhibition takes place. I do think, though, that there is some imbalance in the area.

Lastly, I haven't seen that paper - I'll take a look.. But I'd be pretty impressed with how the authors got around clear and patently observed detrimental effects amid reels upon reels of satellite history.

the connection between the dust itself and TC intensity isn't clear. The detriment due to the dry air itself, however, is.

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Dave Williams said the models were going right, and another guy did too.

The forecast synoptic setup strongly suggests a significant threat from GA to NC. I would not be surprised if the guidance eventually shifts back to the west, which means the FL east coast shouldn't get too cozy yet. Nothing in this pattern suggests a fish to me at this point.

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Please do not try to invalidate my contribution. You may not "intend" to do that, but you are coming across that way.

I think the main argument right now is that Irene is in an environment of high Total Precipitable Water (TPW) and low shear. You have to have some advection of that dry air (shear) to induce a dry air intrusion. Even if we did have shear, the radius of high TPW is pretty large and the "dry air" around the system (outside of well to the west) is actually not that dry.

veqjoy.png

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Dave Williams said the models were going right, and another guy did too.

There's a difference between it going far enough right to miss CHS, and for it to be a fish. In order to be a fish, it will have to complete go right of the cone. That could happen, but given a well established steering pattern and decently agreeable models, it is pretty unlikely. Even with the significant reformations north during the early part of the period, Irene is still going to be within the 3-5 day cone from the early forecasts, albeit on the right side of the cone.

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But what evidence is there that dry air is slowing it down? Td's look good, the TPW loop shows not much disruption, and there isn't really shear to advect it into the core of the storm anyways...

I think we are talking about the same thing in general; except I'm not really sure how we can be certain either way...

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I think the main argument right now is that Irene is in an environment of high Total Precipitable Water (TPW) and low shear. You have to have some advection of that dry air (shear) to induce a dry air intrusion. Even if we did have shear, the radius of high TPW is pretty large and the "dry air" around the system (outside of well to the west) is actually not that dry.

...

I didn't really intend to make argument :) haha ...figures. But, there is some just NW of it, and I agree, you have to create an imbalance between the dry air that the TC creates due to subsidence around the TC, and that which is ambient. That's really what it is about... if the ambient dry air - that not produced by TC-related subsidence ring - adds additional mass and gets ingested, there you go.

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I didn't really intend to make argument :) haha ...figures. But, there is some just NW of it, and I agree, you have to create an imbalance between the dry air that the TC creates due to subsidence around the TC, and that which is ambient. That's really what it is about... if the ambient dry air - that not produced by TC-related subsidence ring - adds additional mass and gets ingested, there you go.

I guess people assumed you were making that argument since you linked to a SAL map and then made a follow up post talking about "imbalances in the area". You just need to be more clear when you write.

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does anybody else think we see rapid intensification, I know with the center passing fairly close to Hispanolia, that would act as a limiting factor, but land interaction seems less an less likely. I'm just wondering if we wake up in 3 days with a high end major before the system even reaches the western Bahamas.

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