andyhb Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Jesus right where Katrina tracked...and August 28th/29th That's a little creepy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 NCEP maps are deceiving with lowest pressures. Keep in mind this is at the grid resolution of the longer range part of the GFS. It will NOT resolve the inner pressure of a major hurricane accurately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 0Z 252hr shows a 961 mb hurricane heading for the Mobile, Biloxi, NO area. So the shift back to the east from the 18Z model run has occurred. That thing really bombs out in the warm Gulf waters on this model run. Lots of time to watch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 0Z 252hr shows a 961 mb hurricane heading for the Mobile, Biloxi, NO area. So the shift back to the east from the 18Z model run has occurred. That thing really bombs out in the warm Gulf waters on this model run. Lots of time to watch though. Given a large number of previous runs had the storm hitting the EC, it would have been unlikely if not hard to believe for the 0z run to go west of 18z, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Keep in mind that the waters between Jamaica and Cuba (and west to the Yucatan for that matter) are very warm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Given a large number of previous runs had the storm hitting the EC, it would have been unlikely if not hard to believe for the 0z run to go west of 18z, right? Who says? Just because a model had it hitting the east coast doesn't mean it can't go way west on a subsequent run. There models are not resolving the storm properly in all likelyhood. Large swings until there's something out there to initialize with better than an invest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Keep in mind that the waters between Jamaica and Cuba (and west to the Yucatan for that matter) are very warm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Can we call this run the Bama Jama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Who says? Just because a model had it hitting the east coast doesn't mean it can't go way west on a subsequent run. There models are not resolving the storm properly in all likelyhood. Large swings until there's something out there to initialize with better than an invest. I just think it's quite likely the 12z and 18z runs were two possible extremes in their own right (just a thought), so the likelihood is that 0z would have been somewhere in between. It's certainly possible 0z would have been west of 18z, but I wouldn't think it likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I just think it's quite likely the 12z and 18z runs were two possible extremes in their own right (just a thought), so the likelihood is that 0z would have been somewhere in between. It's certainly possible 0z would have been west of 18z, but I wouldn't think it likely. Why is it likely that 0z would have been somewhere in between? The models can and will jump around. This is modelology at its best (no offense). Just because two runs show two things doesn't mean the third has to be in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Good over all shape-- so development much like 93L and emily appears to be quite likely further west. I'd say 55 west that this could become a depression and strengthen slowly, so a island chain dodger appears to be the track of this system. South of 16/55=Mexicane--->More likely in my opinion. North of 18/55=Recurve or maybe at best a far eastern portions of the east coast could get clipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Anyway, GFS shows hurricane-force winds extending pretty far out from the center at 228 hrs and even more at 252...pretty interesting at this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Reminds me of Frederic and it's approach to Mobile Bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 CMC is way east, almost a miss. GFS ensembles east of the Op also, western FL hit in the mean. Will be interested to see if the Euro has this east shift..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 CMC is way east, almost a miss. GFS ensembles east of the Op also, western FL hit in the mean. Will be interested to see if the Euro has this east shift..... At 144, it has 97L southwest of Haiti. Can you post some graphics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Here we go guys ! Some convection starting to fire up ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brent Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Mandarin A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1125 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES ON SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 20 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Euro much weaker through 72, only an open wave into the eastern Caribbean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 240hr...rapid intensification between 228-240hr...looks like sub 980mb due south of Mobile, AL in the central Gulf. Ya...thats not good.. These are the type of posts that end up hurting the quality of this thread. To imply rapid intensification on any model plot beyond truncation is rather ridiculous. Point of the matter is, and I'll continue to reiterate this, is that there is still quite a bit uncertainty until we have a concrete cyclone to follow even before the GFS truncates at 192 hours. Yes it is an ominous sign that most if not all of the models are pointing towards a landfall of a tropical cyclone somewhere along the United States and it is certainly alright to talk about the threat of the system impacting our region of the world. However, it hurts discussion by spamming post 180 hour maps of various computer models without any substantive reason for doing so. You would be much better off on focusing away from the operational run (which has admittedly done pretty poorly over the past couple of weeks with tropical cyclone tracking and development) and look more towards the general trends indicated from the GFS ensemble suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 These are the type of posts that end up hurting the quality of this thread. To imply rapid intensification on any model plot beyond truncation is rather ridiculous. Point of the matter is, and I'll continue to reiterate this, is that there is still quite a bit uncertainty until we have a concrete cyclone to follow even before the GFS truncates at 192 hours. Yes it is an ominous sign that most if not all of the models are pointing towards a landfall of a tropical cyclone somewhere along the United States and it is certainly alright to talk about the threat of the system impacting our region of the world. However, it hurts discussion by spamming post 180 hour maps of various computer models without any substantive reason for doing so. You would be much better off on focusing away from the operational run (which has admittedly done pretty poorly over the past couple of weeks with tropical cyclone tracking and development) and look more towards the general trends indicated from the GFS ensemble suite. It's overwhelmingly clear that he was not trying to imply anything is certain, or his statements were a forecast. He was merely pointing out what was happening in the model as it was coming in. It's a common practice in most any weather system thread on this forum. You've called out one of the most knowledgeable and respectful hobbyist/met students we have on this board, who is a major contributor to the forum as a whole..... instead of calling out people that post things like the earlier comments such as "wake me up when this gets to 72-96 hrs out", etc. Unfair much??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 These are the type of posts that end up hurting the quality of this thread. To imply rapid intensification on any model plot beyond truncation is rather ridiculous. Point of the matter is, and I'll continue to reiterate this, is that there is still quite a bit uncertainty until we have a concrete cyclone to follow even before the GFS truncates at 192 hours. Yes it is an ominous sign that most if not all of the models are pointing towards a landfall of a tropical cyclone somewhere along the United States and it is certainly alright to talk about the threat of the system impacting our region of the world. However, it hurts discussion by spamming post 180 hour maps of various computer models without any substantive reason for doing so. You would be much better off on focusing away from the operational run (which has admittedly done pretty poorly over the past couple of weeks with tropical cyclone tracking and development) and look more towards the general trends indicated from the GFS ensemble suite. I think it is OK to post maps- as each run may show a trend- the trend right now seems to be east . Of course people should not say things like "look out Miami" etc, but showing what the runs show is pretty harmless IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It's overwhelmingly clear that he was not trying to imply anything is certain, or his statements were a forecast. He was merely pointing out what was happening in the model as it was coming in. It's a common practice in most any weather system thread on this forum. You've called out one of the most knowledgeable and respectful hobbyist/met students we have on this board, who is a major contributor to the forum as a whole..... instead of calling out people that post things like the earlier comments such as "wake me up when this gets to 72-96 hrs out", etc. Unfair much??? That's a bit of a double standard. If anyone talked about a potential Nor' Easter in a serious manner beyond day 7, they would be laughed at and ridiculed beyond belief. Given that NWP guidance is worse with tropical cyclones compared to mid-latitude cold season systems, this is a fair criticism to say the least. I do agree his intention wasn't to say the model was going to be correct or anything like that, but its still hyperbole and not fact to say there is nothing wrong at all with posting D8-9 GFS images for tropical cyclones. I think the message should mostly be "there's still a system there with potential" and not worry about its exact track at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The Euro is having tremendous consistency problems in the northern stream, the difference between the 12Z run and 00Z run is massive. This is going to be a very difficult one to call...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 That's a bit of a double standard. If anyone talked about a potential Nor' Easter in a serious manner beyond day 7, they would be laughed at and ridiculed beyond belief. Given that NWP guidance is worse with tropical cyclones compared to mid-latitude cold season systems, this is a fair criticism to say the least. I do agree his intention wasn't to say the model was going to be correct or anything like that, but its still hyperbole and not fact to say there is nothing wrong at all with posting D8-9 GFS images for tropical cyclones. I think the message should mostly be "there's still a system there with potential" and not worry about its exact track at this stage. My only issue was.... if you're going to single someone out for causing a degradation of the thread and discussion.... single out the people that are causing the true disruption. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 These are the type of posts that end up hurting the quality of this thread. To imply rapid intensification on any model plot beyond truncation is rather ridiculous. Point of the matter is, and I'll continue to reiterate this, is that there is still quite a bit uncertainty until we have a concrete cyclone to follow even before the GFS truncates at 192 hours. Yes it is an ominous sign that most if not all of the models are pointing towards a landfall of a tropical cyclone somewhere along the United States and it is certainly alright to talk about the threat of the system impacting our region of the world. However, it hurts discussion by spamming post 180 hour maps of various computer models without any substantive reason for doing so. You would be much better off on focusing away from the operational run (which has admittedly done pretty poorly over the past couple of weeks with tropical cyclone tracking and development) and look more towards the general trends indicated from the GFS ensemble suite. Did I say it was going to happen??? No.... I didn't know saying what one model was doing or showed was hurting a thread and hurting the discussion. Next time know who you are calling out and try to find the people who don't contribute a damn thing to this forum. I post a few maps from a select model run and this happens. Just as hostile in the EC coast threads if your winter storm doesn't pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It's overwhelmingly clear that he was not trying to imply anything is certain, or his statements were a forecast. He was merely pointing out what was happening in the model as it was coming in. It's a common practice in most any weather system thread on this forum. You've called out one of the most knowledgeable and respectful hobbyist/met students we have on this board, who is a major contributor to the forum as a whole..... instead of calling out people that post things like the earlier comments such as "wake me up when this gets to 72-96 hrs out", etc. Unfair much??? I think it is OK to post maps- as each run may show a trend- the trend right now seems to be east . Of course people should not say things like "look out Miami" etc, but showing what the runs show is pretty harmless IMO Its okay to post maps up to a point, but its nearly useless to decern anything about a storm's structure or intensity beyond truncation. You can't really tell if there is rapid intensification occurring nor even how strong a storm is by that period of time because of the poor resolution. Sure its ok to look at the overall pattern to see whether or not its a favorable one for a tropical cyclone landfall, but then again you can get that same information and much more by just looking at the ensemble guidance. I'm not trying to annoy anybody here, I just want to see the discussion be steered in a positive direction, not focus on details on one particular model run solution that has a pretty low percentage of occurring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 LOL, the 0Z Fri Euro hits S FL early on 8/26 moving northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 LOL, the 0Z Fri Euro hits S FL early on 8/26 moving northward. Amazing comsistency with regards to a hurricane threat but extremely inconsistent where the models bring this storm. The Euro just did a 180 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.