Major Hurricane Irene live tracking

[VAwxman]

I honestly can't believe the 24hr and 48hr model errors over the last two days. I didn't even think Puerto Rico was in the game on Friday.

That center reformation Saturday night was huge. Once I saw that, I knew my original ideas (which were low confidence, but focused from FL's west coast up toward the panhandle) were dead in the water.

[LakeEffectKing]

A note re: 06z GFDL,

It's still running on Allan's site, but look at the T+6 panel and you can see it already has a pretty error. Eye looks directly over the NW tip of PR...yet radar shows it completely off shore...

[Seminole]

I just wonder if a curve back WNW is likely based on the 6z GFS. The trough clearly misses it at 96 hours. At that point the ridge is rebuilding. I suppose that small vort over the great lakes could trend south and induce a 2nd/complete re-curve, but the overall pattern doesn't look like a re-curve to me, at least through 120 hours. Now if it stalls out anything is possible I guess. But when you see a storm of this size, tracking for this long, it seems unlikely to put on the brakes 50 miles offshore SC.

This is the part of Irenes forecast that is uncertain at this moment.

Strength, timing and shape of the ridge will have a big influence as to how far west Irene goes.

[RaleighWx]

Recon just found 987mb pressure but winds were 11 knots, so it might have not hit the true center. This drop had the pressure at 18.87N, 66.95W

[HKY_WX]

This is the part of Irenes forecast that is uncertain at this moment.

Strength, timing and shape of the ridge will have a big influence as to how far west Irene goes.

The good news is, the picture should be pretty clear by tomorrow night/wed morning. By that point the trough will be forming over the east coast and Irene's interaction with Hispanola will be over. It should give the east coast a solid 2 days to prepare should it look like a landfall is imminent.

[LakeEffectKing]

A note re: 06z GFDL,

It's still running on Allan's site, but look at the T+6 panel and you can see it already has a pretty error. Eye looks directly over the NW tip of PR...yet radar shows it completely off shore...

Zoomed in:

[am19psu]

That center reformation Saturday night was huge. Once I saw that, I knew my original ideas (which were low confidence, but focused from FL's west coast up toward the panhandle) were dead in the water.

Same here. I've made two pretty big swings in my forecast the last two days. I had it into Miami yesterday and now I'm looking at Myrtle-Wilmington this morning.

The other big thing about tonight's 0z runs, besides G-IV data, will be the s/w making landfall in the Pac NW/BC. That should give us a better idea of the amount of synoptic troughing in the East late in the week.

[HurricaneFrances04]

I think the UKMET and GFDL are perhaps showing a stronger ridge 24-48 hours, forcing Irene further west before she starts to do her NW/NNW turn. The models seem to be in decent agreement that its going to start turning north 72 hours from now, but how far west can she get before that happens? UKMET and GFDL are spitting outs some very interesting runs, but my loyalty belong to the Euro.

[ohleary]

Our local NWS folks are seriously jumping into the game...

NHC requested 6-hourly releases from 18 stations in the SE and eastern US for today...

[Kmlwx]

NHC requested 6-hourly releases from 18 stations in the SE and eastern US for today...

Is there a list of which stations are included? And is this effective for just today or until landfall?

[am19psu]

Is there a list of which stations are included? And is this effective for just today or until landfall?

NOUS42 KWNO 220734
ADMNFD

SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD
0730Z MON AUG 22 2011
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS REQUESTING SPECIAL 6-HOURLY UPPER
AIR RELEASES BEGINNING AT 18Z TODAY (MON AUG 22) FROM THE
FOLLOWING STATIONS: KEY WEST, MIAMI, TAMPA, JACKSONVILLE,
TALLAHASSEE, SLIDELL, JACKSON, BIRMINGHAM, PEACHTREE CITY,
CHARLESTON, MOREHEAD CITY, GREENSBORO, NASHVILLE, WILMINGTON,
PITTSBURGH, BLACKSBURG, STERLING AND WALLOPS ISLAND. 
$$
HANDEL/SDM/NCO/NCEP

[ohleary]

Is there a list of which stations are included? And is this effective for just today or until landfall?

http://www.weather.gov/view/validProds.php?prod=adm&node=kwno

Not sure if it's ongoing...will likely hear that info today.

[VAwxman]

Does the EURO ever make landfall, or is it a fish storm?

It makes landfall around the NC outer banks and again in southeast New England.

[Lookout]

Zoomed in:

I dunno if it really means that much in the long range because this system has a pretty large eye and because of that the differences between that map and reality is not much more than that of a wobble. It's a bit too soon I think to know if it means anything. In fact, I think it's often a mistake to make judgments on the long term track of systems based on very short term observations..ie assuming a system is going to be somewhere else in 3 or 4 days because it moved 5 to 10 degrees more to the left or right the last 3 or 4 hours. Just my 2 cents though.

[MarkSC]

It's interesting to note that the steering winds are actually more W at deeper levels and more WNW at shallow per CIMSS, so I don't think the weak initialization is necessarily the reason for the GFDL track. This is also seen in the BAM models longer term, where the BAM D is further W than BAM S. I also note that the HWRF, which has done the best job so far with Irene, shows the storm moving due W today and scraping DR (after showing it N of DR yesterday). Just something to watch with Irene. I've seen many times that very strong storms surprise on the left side of guidance, and Irene could certainly become a major hurricane. Then again, I've seen several storms near CHS move right of forecast as they approach the coast, and our local met mentioned that history this morning. Still a lot of uncertainties with Irene.

EDIT: the 12Z Bam models are more in line and shifted quite a bit N

[free_man]

I dunno if it really means that much in the long range because this system has a pretty large eye and because of that the differences between that map and reality is not much more than that of a wobble. It's a bit too soon I think to know if it means anything. In fact, I think it's often a mistake to make judgments on the long term track of systems based on very short term observations..ie assuming a system is going to be somewhere else in 3 or 4 days because it moved 5 to 10 degrees more to the left or right the last 3 or 4 hours. Just my 2 cents though.

That map and verification will be 30 to 50? miles too far south. That is potentially 150-300 miles error by D5

[peribonca]

Made it through the storm last night in St Croix! Quite a bit stronger than anyone expected, we had sustained winds of 50mph as the eastern eyewall passed through and gusts to 80mph in Christiansted. No power on the whole island, no cell service either. Lots of trees down all over the place.

[free_man]

If Irene rapidly materializes today and tomorrow, a more left turn is certainly not out of the question. The departing trough in the NE may allow that "bend" back if she can stabilize as a major hurricane. However that probably would not be enough of a bend to avoid an eventual recurve east of FL, at least, and compensate for the "added" latitude gained in the past two days until now.

[Lookout]

That map and verification will be 30 to 50? miles too far south. That is potentially 150-300 miles error by D5

lol ok.

But again since the eye is the size it is, just a normal wobble will produce a somewhat large difference. It's why nhc uses long term motion instead of 2 or 3 hour motion.

[Eyewall2005]

Could head out to sea based on those northward wobbles the past 24hrs or so. 12z models are even futher east.

[free_man]

lol ok.

But again since the eye is the size it is, just a normal wobble will produce a somewhat large difference. It's why nhc uses long term motion instead of 2 or 3 hour motion.

NHC has been playing catch-up for two days, I was just speaking specifically of the gfdl and it's initialization. I understand your point.

http://www.nhc.noaa....9/loop_5W.shtml

[Mencken_Fan]

This is uncanny...all three BAMs atop each other in their longer range. Can't say I've ever seen that before. (Magnify it and one will see all three BAMs zeroed in on Wilmington, N.C.)

[Mencken_Fan]

Could head out to sea based on those northward wobbles the past 24hrs or so. 12z models are even futher east.

The difference in track between the NOGAPS and UKMET is astounding. This suggests there's something odd going on; and until it's cleared up I don't think anyone should hold great confidence in any of the models.

Based on years of watching these things, I believe it's quite possible all the models will shift in one or the other direction because one of the outliers may be catching on to something of significance the others are missing. Again, I say this only from past experience and make no claim as to what's next.

[Sunny and Warm]

This is uncanny...all three BAMs atop each other in their longer range. Can't say I've ever seen that before. (Magnify it and one will see all three BAMs zeroed in on Wilmington, N.C.)

They were close together at 18z yesterday coming ashore near CHS. The day before, they were close together coming ashore near SAV. I'm not certain I get value from being close together when the accuracy is not there. All it tells me is that the models continue a slide east from previous runs.

[Seminole]

Convective bursts now happening on the SW side of Irene.

Loooks like Irene may finally be done with the SAL that she was ingesting west of her.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Still a beautiful WNW trend going on with her =]

[Lookout]

Could head out to sea based on those northward wobbles the past 24hrs or so. 12z models are even futher east.

Um, no. Wobbles are just that..wobbles. In the long term the wobbles average out..and in many cases just because a system wobbles more to the north or south even over the last several hours doesn't mean it's going to take a certain path 4 or 5 days out. It's very easy for people to misinterpret the meaning of short term motions or wobbles..this is true in the short range and especially true in the long range.

And even if it's a true motion, the expected steering environment in several days certainly argues for caution with whatever motion the storm is taking right now...because the circumstances and what is steering the storm now will be different then.

As for the models, no surprise since the 06z gfs was quite a bit further east and the Bam models are based off of the gfs. Likewise I'm guessing that site uses gfs ensembles which were further east also. But as HKYWX noted and I agree with, there is some reason to be doubtful about these far east model solutions.

That said, that's not to say they aren't right and the trend isn't legit. That isn't what I'm saying...just making a note on the models.

They were close together at 18z yesterday coming ashore near CHS. The day before, they were close together coming ashore near SAV. I'm not certain I get value from being close together when the accuracy is not there. All it tells me is that the models continue a slide east from previous runs.

Exactly. It's important to see several runs in a row showing the same thing before jumping on them...which is exactly what nhc does in general. You often won't see them make big changes to their forecast based on one suit of model runs. If the models are still showing this tonight, it has a lot more credibility imo.

[wxsmwhrms]

Um, no. Wobbles are just that..wobbles. In the long term the wobbles average out..and in many cases just because a system wobbles more to the north or south even over the last several hours doesn't mean it's going to take a certain path 4 or 5 days out. It's very easy for people to misinterpret the meaning of short term motions or wobbles..this is true in the short range and especially true in the long range.

And even if it's a true motion, the expected steering environment in several days certainly argues for caution with whatever motion the storm is taking right now...because the circumstances and what is steering the storm now will be different then.

As for the models, no surprise since the 06z gfs was quite a bit further east and the Bam models are based off of the gfs. Likewise I'm guessing that site uses gfs ensembles which were further east also. But as HKYWX noted and I agree with, there is some reason to be doubtful about these far east model solutions.

That said, that's not to say they aren't right and the trend isn't legit. That isn't what I'm saying...just making a note on the models.

Exactly. It's important to see several runs in a row showing the same thing before jumping on them...which is exactly what nhc does in general. You often won't see them make big changes to their forecast based on one suit of model runs. If the models are still showing this tonight, it has a lot more credibility imo.

Agreed. Given the orientation of the Atlantic ridge, and where the hurricane is now, it is very difficult to see how things could evolve to where this will not be a threat to the CONUS at some point. In fact, given how far north the westerlies are forecast to be displaced, I would not be surprised to still see a trend toward a a slower solution with the system not fully getting moved off to the north, depending on how the initial trough lifts out and the ridging builds in behind it.

[Sunny and Warm]

Agreed. Given the orientation of the Atlantic ridge, and where the hurricane is now, it is very difficult to see how things could evolve to where this will not be a threat to the CONUS at some point. In fact, given how far north the westerlies are forecast to be displaced, I would not be surprised to still see a trend toward a a slower solution with the system not fully getting moved off to the north, depending on how the initial trough lifts out and the ridging builds in behind it.

Wouldn't a slower trend in the approach to the SE USA increase the chance that the next trough pushes it further east and possibly only skirt the outer banks and not go up the coast?

[Mencken_Fan]

They were close together at 18z yesterday coming ashore near CHS. The day before, they were close together coming ashore near SAV. I'm not certain I get value from being close together when the accuracy is not there. All it tells me is that the models continue a slide east from previous runs.

Yes, the BAM cluster itself is moving about (with the rest of the models) and was unusually tight yesterday over S.C., but seeing all three in the exact same spot at long range is, by itself, extraordinary (regardless of what it means for Irene.)