Major Hurricane Irene live tracking

[HurricaneJosh]

the Dry Air getting pulled into this system from the the NW is still keeping her from under going RI...her structure is lopsided...the dry air is eroding away the convection on the west side of Irene (especially evident in the sw quadrant) She is still suffering from convection flare ups and then spewing outflow boundaries...i'm not saying anything against a slow strengthening, but I wouldn't throw around the term RI so casually until the issue with dry air entrainment is resolved...

Which is good, in my opinion. RI now would mean a premature climax. I'll take slow and steady.

P.S. Who's been mentioning RI, by the way?

[jconsor]

All of the global models from this morning are not showing a deep enough cyclone (and previous runs had the same issue). That's probably why they've had a persistent leftward bias on Irene's track. The NOGAPS and GGEM (not surprisingly) have the worst initializations and short-term forecasts of Irene's intensity. The ECMWF, with its high resolution, has the best initialization and short-term forecast intensity-wise. As long as Irene continues intensifying I have a hard time seeing a substantial leftward turn.

The radar presentation continues to improve with the eye becoming more clear and circular... there is no doubt that this thing is intensifying.

The one thing I want to note on radar though is that there hasn't been any sign of a leftward turn yet.

[phil882]

All of the global models from this morning are not showing a deep enough cyclone (and previous runs had the same issue). That's probably why they've had a persistent leftward bias on Irene's track. The NOGAPS and GGEM (not surprisingly) have the worst initializations and short-term forecasts of Irene's intensity. The ECMWF, with its high resolution, has the best initialization and short-term forecast intensity-wise. As long as Irene continues intensifying I have a hard time seeing a substantial leftward turn.

That is my thinking as well, that the weaker initializations have caused a leftward bias in the modeling. Still though I'd like to see Irene safely clear of 20N before the major threat of land interaction can be put to rest.

[Floydbuster]

PRELIMINARY REPORTS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE HAS OCCURRED ON PUERTO RICO...AND MORE THAN 800 THOUSAND HOMES ARE WITHOUT POWER ON THE ISLAND.

ALSO...FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATES WINDS TO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH ARE NOW OCCURRING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF PUERTO RICO.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Floydbuster]

Morning quickie on Irene

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Goodness, she looks SMASHING this morning. Judging from disco's movement, radar and models, I would say she has a chance of completely missing Hispaniola and heading off in a general NW movement towards the Bahama's and islands surrounding. Interesting how closely thus far she has maintained such a similar path to Hugo. However, I do not think the 2 paths will relate for much longer. Hugo stayed to the east of the Bahama's and I see Irene coming in through that general island chain from the South. Her path will bring her over very warm waters for enough time for her to completely bomb out, and I think that the NHC's 95 kts is rather conservative (admittedly so). I think bringing her into the FL/GA border for landfall is possibly a bit too "left" and would most likely end up correcting to the right a bit toward the GA/SC border or a landfall in between the current NHC landfalling spot and the GA/SC border. With all that time over bathwater I certainly do not think that Cat 3 would be out of the question, which is not a far cry from the high-end Cat 2 the NHC is calling for. I can admire the NHC not wanting to jump the gun yet and to remain conservative as always, they have a tough job to do. This will be a very interesting hurricane to watch from here on out. It always ends up that I's are rather strong... guess it has something to do with the time of year.

Goodnight to all, it's been a long night in the ER with a sick, sick daughter. (104 temps :( ) Hopefully I have a loooong sleep and awaken to a beautifully structured cane about to go through some RI, all while missing DR/Hispaniola. I do think it will inhibit/slow it's steady strengthening due to the close proximity-- however, I think she will be JUUUUST fine.

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Anyone know when the next recon-- or better yet, G IV, is scheduled? We need some solid info, and quick.

[phlwx]

FWIW the 6z GFS falls in line with the Euro and goes for the coastal scrape...landfall near Myrtle Beach.

[valkhorn]

FWIW the 6z GFS falls in line with the Euro and goes for the coastal scrape...landfall near Myrtle Beach.

Looks like with most model runs the rain and wind won't make it much past the Appalachians. So, here in Knoxville, where we could use rain, we won't get any. Oh well, fall will be here soon.

[LP08]

I have a friend on Vieques, PR to the east of the main island. No power, no water, trees and power lines down all over.

[thewxmann]

FWIW the 6z GFS falls in line with the Euro and goes for the coastal scrape...landfall near Myrtle Beach.

Holy crap, up the coast. We might get a Floyd-like track after all.

[Sunny and Warm]

Holy crap, up the coast. We might get a Floyd-like track after all.

Maybe, but that doesn't necessarily mean a Floyd-like rain max in the mid Atlantic region. Floyd got absorbed in a mid latitude trough and was literally squeezed to death. Not sure yet what happens to Irene, but there are differences between the two setups.

[Eyewall2005]

06z UKMET & GFDL are still over sfl this morning.

[PDIII]

If the 6z guidance verifies... when do you think they will start evacuating the coastal areas. I have property in Ocean City, MD and I am not missing this for anything. I need to make sure that I get in to town early enough so that I am not turned around at the bridges, etc.. earl came very close last year but they didnt shut roads. But looking at the models... DOOMS DAY... couple more runs like this and it will dominate the news for the next week. I can see evac orders coming very early in the game.

[Wow]

When I saw the 00Z EURO I said to myself "this goes so much against climatology...I can't buy it." (I can swallow a Cape Fear hit, but a hurricane going over the Delmarva?)

But when I saw the 06Z GFS I 'bout fell outta my chair.

I'm sorry but this is getting creepy.

I doubt support from the 6z GFS negates climatology.

GA landfalls are also quite rare.

[N. OF PIKE]

Looking at visible...i am in awe of irenes size...llc located on sw side..of massive symmetrical cloud pattern ..is it possible the center either a. Relocates more north or b. Is more likely to pull nw shortly to allign/center itself under said convection. Mets?

[ArtRosen]

Stewart delivers the goods, extremely (perhaps overly) detailed discussion and now calls for a high end CAT2 by the end of the forecast period.

Is he being conservative or does he really believe it'll be a CAT 2 by landfall? With nothing but toasty water and favorable air patterns ahead of Irene, what's to stop it from becoming a 3 or 4?

[Master of Disaster]

If the 6z guidance verifies... when do you think they will start evacuating the coastal areas. I have property in Ocean City, MD and I am not missing this for anything. I need to make sure that I get in to town early enough so that I am not turned around at the bridges, etc.. earl came very close last year but they didnt shut roads. But looking at the models... DOOMS DAY... couple more runs like this and it will dominate the news for the next week. I can see evac orders coming very early in the game.

The biggest issue there is the Bay Bridge. Havent heard anything from the State yet about evacuations and we certainly would considering we have the resources to shelter a significant part of that population. I think for Hanna, they asked us to open 5 shelters if needed for Ocean City.

[RaleighWx]

6z HWRF still targeting central SC coast

You can also clearly see the eye on the San Juan TWDR radar

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?num=10&delay=5&scale=1.00&noclutter=0&ID=SJU&type=TR0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=99&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

Recon sampling the storm now.

[VAwxman]

Holy crap, up the coast. We might get a Floyd-like track after all.

And the GFS even looks to be too far south initially per the maps I'm looking at. Wondering if this ever actually landfalls at this rate.

[am19psu]

And the GFS even looks to be too far south initially per the maps I'm looking at. Wondering if this ever actually landfalls at this rate.

I honestly can't believe the 24hr and 48hr model errors over the last two days. I didn't even think Puerto Rico was in the game on Friday.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Funny how the GFDL and UKMET still take Irene right up Florida's west coast, well west of all the other models. Probably why the NHC is leaning west of the consensus ATM.

But what a difference 24 hours makes, huh? Yesterday we were talking about the possibility of a gutted tropical storm hitting Florida, now it looks like Joe B. was able to hack the computer models. A broken watch is right twice a day I guess.

ETA: And now seeing the 0Z CMC, there is no way you can tell me that Joe B. has not taken control of the computer models. It's the East Coast's worst nightmare.

[JamieOber]

Is he being conservative or does he really believe it'll be a CAT 2 by landfall? With nothing but toasty water and favorable air patterns ahead of Irene, what's to stop it from becoming a 3 or 4?

There's still no guarantee it doesn't have any ill effects from Hispaniola, so they are likely playing their cards close to their vest. You don't want to start throwing out Cat 3/4 talk this early in the game given the forecast track.

[winterymix]

Our local NWS folks are seriously jumping into the game...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

349 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2011

...

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

SUPPLEMENTAL BALLOON LAUNCHES (06 AND 18Z) WL COMMENCE AT 18Z

TDA IN SUPPORT OF "IRENE."

[CandymanColumbusGA]

I honestly can't believe the 24hr and 48hr model errors over the last two days. I didn't even think Puerto Rico was in the game on Friday.

The NHC's first advisory and track for Irene had the extreme southwestern portion of Puerto Rico in the cone... and that was issued Saturday night! That's what a few llc relocations will do... Also, I'm beginning to wonder if the trough over the Eastern US, right now, is breaking down the ridge a little earlier than the models ever thought. This is certainly good news for hurricane lovers!

At least the eye was mostly closed off, according to radar images from PR, and it's continuing to move a little more north of due west. It appears as though Irene will continue to ride along the eastern boundary of the cone for at least the next 12 to 24 hours before the trough lifts over the Eastern US and allows the ridge to build back in. In which case, we'd see it go a little more to the west before riding north when the next trough moves across the northern CONUS.

[HKY_WX]

I just wonder if a curve back WNW is likely based on the 6z GFS. The trough clearly misses it at 96 hours. At that point the ridge is rebuilding. I suppose that small vort over the great lakes could trend south and induce a 2nd/complete re-curve, but the overall pattern doesn't look like a re-curve to me, at least through 120 hours. Now if it stalls out anything is possible I guess. But when you see a storm of this size, tracking for this long, it seems unlikely to put on the brakes 50 miles offshore SC.

[Seminole]

06z UKMET & GFDL are still over sfl this morning.

They are sticking with the ridging being stronger than the other thus the westward bias.

[Sunny and Warm]

The NHC's first advisory and track for Irene had the extreme southwestern portion of Puerto Rico in the cone... and that was issued Saturday night! That's what a few llc relocations will do... Also, I'm beginning to wonder if the trough over the Eastern US is breaking down the ridge a little earlier than the models ever thought. This is certainly good news for hurricane lovers!

At least the eye was mostly closed off, according to radar images from PR, and it's continuing to move a little more north of due west. It appears as though Irene will continue to ride along the eastern boundary of the cone for at least the next 12 to 24 hours before the trough lifts over the Eastern US and allows the ridge to build back in. In which case, we'd see it go a little more to the west before riding north when the next trough moves across the northern CONUS.

If the ridge breaks down earlier now, doesn't that also mean Irene will be further east as well when the high rebuilds back in, and effect further up the coast into SC/NC border? Maybe that is what the Euro is seeing in its 00z run.

[winterymix]

I just wonder if a curve back WNW is likely based on the 6z GFS. The trough clearly misses it at 96 hours. At that point the ridge is rebuilding. I suppose that small vort over the great lakes could trend south and induce a 2nd/complete re-curve, but the overall pattern doesn't look like a re-curve to me, at least through 120 hours. Now if it stalls out anything is possible I guess. But when you see a storm of this size, tracking for this long, it seems unlikely to put on the brakes 50 miles offshore SC.

If you closely evaluate the GFS at days six and seven, the west side of Irene has a sharp

precip. curtailment and i wonder how much the system will affect the mid-Atlantic west of

the Chesapeake Bay. It seems the trend is for a slowly increasing eastward component to the northward

grind up the East Coast.

On the other hand, NYC and Long Island appear as if they may measure the rain in batches

of six inches per forecast period.

Josh: consider chasing at Montauk Point!

[CT Rain]

The NHC's first advisory and track for Irene had the extreme southwestern portion of Puerto Rico in the cone... and that was issued Saturday night! That's what a few llc relocations will do... Also, I'm beginning to wonder if the trough over the Eastern US, right now, is breaking down the ridge a little earlier than the models ever thought. This is certainly good news for hurricane lovers!

At least the eye was mostly closed off, according to radar images from PR, and it's continuing to move a little more north of due west. It appears as though Irene will continue to ride along the eastern boundary of the cone for at least the next 12 to 24 hours before the trough lifts over the Eastern US and allows the ridge to build back in. In which case, we'd see it go a little more to the west before riding north when the next trough moves across the northern CONUS.

Good post... I thought the same thing when I got up this morning. I don't see this making a substantial jog west in the next 24 hours as the trough over the east coast is weakening the ridge north of Irene. By 12z Tuesday the ridge should start building back to the north of Irene and I could see her moving a bit more to the west.