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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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Yeah, that Discussion is loaded with tasty tidbits-- like a sundae with chunks of caramel hidden in it. Every spoonful had a burst of heavenly sweetness....

OK, I'm getting off on this too much. Sorry.

Back to the cyclone: It's obviously a very interesting situation developing here-- not to mention the radar shows a really nice NW chug right now.

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I am no tropical weather guru, but it is impressive this passed over Puerto Rico apparently unscathed and actually deepened to become a hurricane.

It actually reminds me of a couple of hurricanes that have done that, but those were over relatively flat areas-- Andrew, I believe was strengthening at landfall, and Katrina also (first landfalls in Fla.)

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The radar presentation continues to improve with the eye becoming more clear and circular... there is no doubt that this thing is intensifying.

The one thing I want to note on radar though is that there hasn't been any sign of a leftward turn yet.

radar3.gif

That image has a nice little "bob" north at the end of it. Using that radar (short time frame..) averaging that out through the whole loop.. it will clearly miss Hispaniola..

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I am no tropical weather guru, but it is impressive this passed over Puerto Rico apparently unscathed and actually deepened to become a hurricane.

How common/uncommon is it for this to happen-and did anyone call this(strengthening over Puerto Rico)?

*also I first went to post and it said the topic was locked..I swear it showed it was locked...it was locked briefly for some reason..right..or have I just been up too late?

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Too early to say that, although the current trajectory is excellent for a miss. Let's see.

I know its too early.. and referenced the "short" time frame.,.. extrapolating the trajectory through out the loop and extending it.. at the same trajectory clears Hispaniola easily. Does not say it could wobble a few times west as well... to make it a closer pass to the island.

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How common/uncommon is it for this to happen-and did anyone call this(strengthening over Puerto Rico)?

*also I first went to post and it said the topic was locked..I swear it showed it was locked...it was locked briefly for some reason..right..or have I just been up too late?

I think it had more to do with the favorable upper-air environment. Not sure Puerto Rico is large enough to induce significant frictional convergence.

OT: The word 'Puerto' is always flagged as misspelled.

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Suspect frictional convergence did its work again. Tightened up the storm just as it crossed land.

Seems reasonable given the size of the storm and the rather small size of Puerto Rico. If this is the case, I wonder what size of storm would have felt the opposite effects of the terrain influence and would have weakened.

It actually reminds me of a couple of hurricanes that have done that, but those were over relatively flat areas-- Andrew, I believe was strengthening at landfall, and Katrina also (first landfalls in Fla.)

Interesting, I did not know those two did that.

How common/uncommon is it for this to happen-and did anyone call this(strengthening over Puerto Rico)?

*also I first went to post and it said the topic was locked..I swear it showed it was locked...it was locked briefly for some reason..right..or have I just been up too late?

It was locked by someone for whatever reason. As for how common/uncommon it is, I am definitely not the person to ask, lol. My tropical weather experience is limited.

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Wow at that discussion by Stewart. No more weakening due to Hispanola... :scooter:

I wouldn't forecast no weakening with that forecast track. Remember Jeanne 2004 that moved across northern DR and weaken to nearly nothing, but a weak low pressure...Most likely a better case is Debby 2000, which got within .5 degree of northern DR. It had its inflow cut and the system was killed. This system will also get its inflow cut even if it remains totally remained offshore, but within a degree of this island from hell. At least the strengthening would slow or stop.

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Unless this hooks more west and goes over a good chunk of Hispaniola, which right now looks less likely, I don't see how this doesn't get to major cane status at some point. NHC seems to agree if you read the disco, but they don't wanna jump the gun in case the island does impact it a little more than I'm thinking it will.

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How common/uncommon is it for this to happen-and did anyone call this(strengthening over Puerto Rico)?

*also I first went to post and it said the topic was locked..I swear it showed it was locked...it was locked briefly for some reason..right..or have I just been up too late?

It probably was strengthening as it went into PR which helps. It didn't spend enough time over the land to really weaken, so we didn't see much spin down...and if anything intensified again as it neared the coast. Just my take fwiw.

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Seems reasonable given the size of the storm and the rather small size of Puerto Rico. If this is the case, I wonder what size of storm would have felt the opposite effects of the terrain influence and would have weakened.

Interesting, I did not know those two did that.

It was locked by someone for whatever reason. As for how common/uncommon it is, I am definitely not the person to ask, lol. My tropical weather experience is limited.

I believe in one or both cases, it had actually started to strengthen rapidly just before making landfall and the process continued for a while after landfall. Im not sure if Hugo and/or Wilma did that too, but perhaps.

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It probably was strengthening as it went into PR which helps. It didn't spend enough time over the land to really weaken, so we didn't see much spin down...and if anything intensified again as it neared the coast. Just my take fwiw.

Yes-- exactly. I'm pretty sure this is what was going on with Andrew and Katrina over south Florida too.

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I believe in one or both cases, it had actually started to strengthen rapidly just before making landfall and the process continued for a while after landfall. Im not sure if Hugo or Wilma did that too, but perhaps.

Neither Hugo nor Wilma did that. Wilma was actually weakening slightly when it made landfall in FL, and did not strengthen again until it moved offshore.

Anyhoo, we're getting OT-- sorry.

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Neither Hugo nor Wilma did that. Wilma was actually weakening slightly when it made landfall in FL, and did not strengthen again until it moved offshore.

Anyhoo, we're getting OT-- sorry.

Sorry Josh. Then it was just Andrew and Katrina as they were making landfall in Fla.

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Wow, every time I see that PR radar loop I get reminded of Hugo (which I rode out in San Juan as a kid)-- their paths across the island were nearly parallel and only a few miles apart.

Recall:

1490254_f520.jpg

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The Day 5 position is at the GA coast with winds of 95 kt!

Actually, the forecast has it raking the E coast of FL and GA as a solid Cat 2. Interestin'.

An actual cane for you to chase assuming Hispaniola doesn't do the ol' suck-and-screw to it.

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Sorry Josh. Then it was just Andrew and Katrina as they were making landfall in Fla.

Yeah, those two did strengthen a bit past landfall. S FL is one of the rare places where that happens.

An actual cane for you to chase assuming Hispaniola doesn't do the ol' suck-and-screw to it.

Totally. If it doesn't get raped by Shredderola, it could be a good chase subject.

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Seems reasonable given the size of the storm and the rather small size of Puerto Rico. If this is the case, I wonder what size of storm would have felt the opposite effects of the terrain influence and would have weakened.

I dunno. Just from what I've seen though in my years of tracking, weak or loose storms (e.g. storms undergoing ERC) of any size get tightened by land interaction, allowing the storm to remain quasisteady or even strengthen temporarily over land. The inverse occurs for tighter, stronger storms.

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the Dry Air getting pulled into this system from the the NW is still keeping her from under going RI...her structure is lopsided...the dry air is eroding away the convection on the west side of Irene (especially evident in the sw quadrant) She is still suffering from convection flare ups and then spewing outflow boundaries...i'm not saying anything against a slow strengthening, but I wouldn't throw around the term RI so casually until the issue with dry air entrainment is resolved...

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