Chicago Storm Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 COC passing just west of TJSJ, as it approaches the northern coast... Pressure down to 993.3mb and winds out of the SE...Sustained at 14mph and gusting to 29mph. TJSJ 220730Z 13012G25KT 4SM -RA FEW006 BKN011 OVC017 25/24 A2933 RMK AO2 PK WND 07040/0658 P0006 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The NW wobble seems to be bringing Irene across the eastern portion of Puerto Rico at a decent clip. Northern half of Irene already feeding on the Atlantic Ocean again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The NW wobble seems to be bringing Irene across the eastern portion of Puerto Rico at a decent clip. Northern half of Irene already feeding on the Atlantic Ocean again. Yep-- looks like the center is spilling back out over the water-- and the pressure only rose a few mb. Cool. The first test has been overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The NW wobble seems to be bringing Irene across the eastern portion of Puerto Rico at a decent clip. Northern half of Irene already feeding on the Atlantic Ocean again. feeding the atlantic again. that just sounds eerie. i have a bad(/good) feeling about this monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yep-- looks like the center is spilling back out over the water-- and the pressure only rose a few mb. Cool. The first test has been overcome. If this is moving north of Puerto Rico, then my best guess would be north of Hispaniola with intensification to a major hurricane possible given the extremely warm waters up to the Gulf Stream and the dynamic outflow pattern Irene has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The latest hourly position is 18.3N 66.3W-- showing no latitude gain from the previous hour. But, interestingly, the indicated motion is now 290, as opposed to 285 (from the last advisory). That's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 If this thing avoids the higher terrain of hispanola, we are going to be dealing with one heck of a storm along the east coast end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Cloud tops exploding on the eastern side as Irene prepares to exit north of Puerto Rico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The Euro veers it NNE from there. Good morning Josh. Yea, I noticed that after I posted. I would note though, for those of us in both S.C. and N.C., our coastline aligns well with storm recurvature. That is, if a storm comes up to near our coast then goes into recurvature the storm's core can sweep a vast stretch of coastline. And a Cat 3 could throw hurricane force winds into many coastal cities, towns, and resorts. Whatever the case, it's looking pretty solid that something is going to affect the Carolinas, even if Florida takes the first hit. Irene may end up fascinating for the number of locations she visits before finally leaving the continent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Through 3:30, bouy at San Juan is seeing some clacking of the winds, pressure down to 992.7mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
28storms Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The first test is not completely over. Lets see if this thing now is "sucks west along 18.4 n or can a tually sustain a 285-290 heading NExt 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Based on the new Euro and the GFS ensembles, as well as the majority of the hurricane models (throwing out the obviously out to lunch GFDL) I still think NHC is too far left. I pretty strongly feel this will hit NC or SC. The strength is problematic, but a cat 2 at landfall might be a good first guess. I think it has a low but fair shot of fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 boom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Lowest pressure I've seen is 992mb with 21kt winds. Looks like it has been holding it's own quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Radar is in the eye currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 wow, this thing is about ready to explode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Wow what a nw path to cut across p.r . Obviously could intensify today. Please no strengthening ridges over 24-72 hr time frame. Its somehow been over 60years since a cat 4 hit broward or palm beach ....like to keep it that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 There are still some ensemble members of the 00Z Euro suggesting this may be a bit further W. Once we get that first set of upper air data, I think we'll get our first 'feel' for where this thing is actually going to track as it nears the US Coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yea Irene wanted no part of PR... and decided to get out of there pretty fast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Talk about a one night stand. Yea Irene wanted no part of PR... and decided to get out of there pretty fast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 And we have a cane HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 0900 UTC MON AUG 22 2011 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 66.4W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. NHC now takes Irene up to 95kt at the end of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 It's a hurricane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Well the 6z nam is a bit further north than its 0z counter part. Initialization was horrible as far as it goes though. Gets real close to Miami at hour 84. Nam is the nam as far as tropics go though. Good bit deeper with the trough heading through the North East this time compared to the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Impressive that it actually strengthened while crossing Puerto Rico. The models must have been on to something when they showed it deepening even while over land. The upper-air pattern must be spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The Day 5 position is at the GA coast with winds of 95 kt! Actually, the forecast has it raking the E coast of FL and GA as a solid Cat 2. Interestin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Organizing over land IRENE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURSDESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF PUERTO RICO...AND A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN IMAGERY FROM THE FAA TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. ALSO...LARGE PATCHES OF DOPPLER VELOCITY VALUES AS HIGH AS 75-82 KT AT 1000-1500 FT AND 85-91 KT AT 2000-3000 FT HAVE BEEN INDICATED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WHICH EQUATES TO AT LEAST 65-KT SURFACE WINDS. SOME DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 72 KT HAVE ALSO BEEN DETECTED AT 500-600 FT OVER WATER. AS A RESULT OF THESE DATA...IRENE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. Also IT NOW APPEARS THAT IRENE WILL NOT INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA AS MUCHOR AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IRENE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO HAVE A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...INCLUDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ABOUT 1200 NMI EAST OF THE CYCLONE ACTING AS A MASS SINK. WITH IRENE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE OVER SSTS NEAR 30C AFTER 48 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE FORECASTING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Impressive that it actually strengthened while crossing Puerto Rico. The models must have been on to something when they showed it deepening even while over land. The upper-air pattern must be spectacular. The fact that the circulation still has all this rich moist theta-e air to still ingest helps too. That Island is small enough to not damage it too much. It hopefully will just graze Hisp. too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 When I read the discussion, I just knew Stewart wrote it. Great little tidbits embedded in it. Example: WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY ISTHAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOWOF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVELMID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS ANDBEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TOLOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPSAND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE ALITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIALFORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THEPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The radar presentation continues to improve with the eye becoming more clear and circular... there is no doubt that this thing is intensifying. The one thing I want to note on radar though is that there hasn't been any sign of a leftward turn yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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