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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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The NW wobble seems to be bringing Irene across the eastern portion of Puerto Rico at a decent clip. Northern half of Irene already feeding on the Atlantic Ocean again.

Yep-- looks like the center is spilling back out over the water-- and the pressure only rose a few mb.

Cool. The first test has been overcome.

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The NW wobble seems to be bringing Irene across the eastern portion of Puerto Rico at a decent clip. Northern half of Irene already feeding on the Atlantic Ocean again.

post-442-0-29100600-1313998825.gif

feeding the atlantic again. that just sounds eerie. i have a bad(/good) feeling about this monster

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Yep-- looks like the center is spilling back out over the water-- and the pressure only rose a few mb.

Cool. The first test has been overcome.

If this is moving north of Puerto Rico, then my best guess would be north of Hispaniola with intensification to a major hurricane possible given the extremely warm waters up to the Gulf Stream and the dynamic outflow pattern Irene has.

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The Euro veers it NNE from there.

Good morning Josh. Yea, I noticed that after I posted.

I would note though, for those of us in both S.C. and N.C., our coastline aligns well with storm recurvature. That is, if a storm comes up to near our coast then goes into recurvature the storm's core can sweep a vast stretch of coastline. And a Cat 3 could throw hurricane force winds into many coastal cities, towns, and resorts.

Whatever the case, it's looking pretty solid that something is going to affect the Carolinas, even if Florida takes the first hit.

Irene may end up fascinating for the number of locations she visits before finally leaving the continent.

bike.gif

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Based on the new Euro and the GFS ensembles, as well as the majority of the hurricane models (throwing out the obviously out to lunch GFDL) I still think NHC is too far left. I pretty strongly feel this will hit NC or SC. The strength is problematic, but a cat 2 at landfall might be a good first guess.

I think it has a low but fair shot of fishing.

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There are still some ensemble members of the 00Z Euro suggesting this may be a bit further W. Once we get that first set of upper air data, I think we'll get our first 'feel' for where this thing is actually going to track as it nears the US Coast...

post-32-0-94761100-1314002261.gif

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And we have a cane

HURRICANE IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011

0900 UTC MON AUG 22 2011

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 66.4W AT 22/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.

NHC now takes Irene up to 95kt at the end of the period.

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Well the 6z nam is a bit further north than its 0z counter part. Initialization was horrible as far as it goes though. Gets real close to Miami at hour 84. Nam is the nam as far as tropics go though. Good bit deeper with the trough heading through the North East this time compared to the 0z run.

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Organizing over land

IRENE HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS

DESPITE ITS INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF PUERTO

RICO...AND A RAGGED EYE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN IMAGERY FROM THE FAA

TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR. ALSO...LARGE PATCHES OF DOPPLER

VELOCITY VALUES AS HIGH AS 75-82 KT AT 1000-1500 FT AND 85-91 KT

AT 2000-3000 FT HAVE BEEN INDICATED NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE

CENTER OVER WATER FOR THE PAST 2 HOURS...WHICH EQUATES TO AT LEAST

65-KT SURFACE WINDS. SOME DOPPLER VELOCITIES AS HIGH AS 72 KT HAVE

ALSO BEEN DETECTED AT 500-600 FT OVER WATER. AS A RESULT OF THESE

DATA...IRENE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011

ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

Also

IT NOW APPEARS THAT IRENE WILL NOT INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA AS MUCH

OR AS LONG AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN MORE

STRENGTHENING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IRENE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF

THE MODELS TO HAVE A VERY IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE

FORECAST PERIOD...INCLUDING A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW ABOUT

1200 NMI EAST OF THE CYCLONE ACTING AS A MASS SINK. WITH IRENE ALSO

EXPECTED TO BE OVER SSTS NEAR 30C AFTER 48 HOURS...SIGNIFICANT

STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY WILL

REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH

IRENE WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA FOR

THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF

THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS AND THE HWRF/GFDL MODELS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE

IMPRESSIVE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED ACROSS IRENE...IT

WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME IF THIS CYCLONE BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE AT

SOME TIME DURING ITS LIFETIME LIKE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS ARE

FORECASTING.

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Impressive that it actually strengthened while crossing Puerto Rico. The models must have been on to something when they showed it deepening even while over land. The upper-air pattern must be spectacular.

The fact that the circulation still has all this rich moist theta-e air to still ingest helps too. That Island is small enough to not damage it too much. It hopefully will just graze Hisp. too.

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When I read the discussion, I just knew Stewart wrote it. Great little tidbits embedded in it.

Example:

WHAT IS NOTEWORTHY ISTHAT ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE OUTFLOWOF IRENE WILL CONVERGE WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVELMID-LATITUDE FLOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 96 HOURS ANDBEYOND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MASS CONFLUENCE COULD MAINTAIN THE MID- TOLOW-LEVEL RIDGE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER AND LONGER THAN WHAT NOGAPSAND THE ECMWF ARE FORECASTING...WHICH WOULD IN TURN KEEP IRENE ALITTLE CLOSER TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIALFORECAST TRACK WAS ONLY SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST OF THEPREVIOUS TRACK AND IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS TVCN AND TVCA.

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