ColdFront77 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 (Radar loop from 12:12am EST to 1:42am EST) 12:12am EDT to 1:42am EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 TROPICAL STORM IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 200 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011 AT 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS ESTIMATED BY FAA DOPPLER RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 15 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yeah pretty much. You can't hide your true feelings from other wx nerds. It's silly to try. Back on topic... Motion has a noice N component now: 12 am AST: 17.9N 65.5W 1 am AST: 18.0N 65.7W 2 am AST: 18.2N 65.9W Awesome N wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Updated the radar loop, made it longer by collecting more frames and also slowed the speed a bit. (Radar loop from 12:12am EST to 1:42am EST) You can tell the latest movement. Looks like the interaction with land is what may have tugged the center north, especially seeing the structure of the center "consolidate" the southern flank up into the circulation center. Seems to be heavier convection intensifying on the norther quadrant, is it maybe a dilemna whether the Center is tugged off the Island by lopsided convection or trapped on the island due to frictional forces? I'm wondering about the latter since it seems to have shiften to a more WNW track over the past 1-2 frames rather than a NW track...(wobble). Or maybe not? Hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Phil, If this straddles the coast of Florida, won't land friction pull it inland? One track showed it parrallel almost the entire coast of Florida and I was wondering if that would be possible. The effect is less when the terrain is not as significant. However, there are examples even in relatively flat terrain where if mean flow is very weak that TCs can gravitate towards the coastline. The most obvious example I can think off off the top of my head was Hurricane Isidore (2002) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 ECMWF misses hispaniola to the north, center off the north shore of the Island Then continues due west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Euro initialized at 1002mb, at 48h down to 985mb and skirts the N coast of Hispanola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 At least one hurricane force gust was observed. Station at Esperanza, PR ( http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=ESPP4 ) had a 66kt gust out of the South at 1:06AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The ECWMF at 96 hours is in about the same position compaired to 12z, but not as far to the west at the 00z GFS. At 120 hours its actually east of the 12z ECWMF track and looks more like a SC/NC track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Judging by the 00Z ECMWF and the HWRF, the western Bahamas could have a prolonged period of hurricane force winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 At 114 hours (18z Fri) ECMWF position is approx 30N/78W. Pretty far offshore of Fla. Takes it's sweet time east of Fla tho...just crawling. At 126 hours, it looks to be approaching the NC/SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 This run has a landfall on the NC/SC border as a Major, so much for "consistancy"...if it ever existed it's history now. GFS/West, CMC/West, ECMWF/East. Hard to tell where to go...ECMWF has been very consistant, sticking to my original thoughts on a SC landfall, not that it matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 This run has a landfall on the NC/SC border as a Major, so much for "consistancy"...if it ever existed it's history now. GFS/West, CMC/West, ECMWF/East. Hard to tell where to go...ECMWF has been very consistant, sticking to my original thoughts on a SC landfall, not that it matters. ECMWF is further east than that. it approaches the NC/SC border but turns toward the NNE. At 12z sunday it's got a strong-looking cane near Hatteras. Gets bald head island pretty good on it's way by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Here's another tibit that might help solve this mid-level subtropical ridge question. 00z Bermuda sounding shows that the current 500mb height is at 5920m which is a good 20m lower than yesterday at 12z... thus the ridge has weakened slightly in the last 12 hours. Comparing it to the initialization of the models, it seems that the ECWMF seems pretty reasonable, while the GFS is a little bit too weak on the 500mb height initialization at 00z. However, the GFS has a weaker surface initialization of Irene, while ECWMF is much stronger, which might be able to explain the more northward solution initially from the ECWMF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Could someone post the images for the euro? I am trying to get a visual feel for the track the euro takes. Does it make landfall at Wilmington and then turn sharply NNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Hr 168 the EURO has a powerful Hurricane just east of Maryland, very "Gloria" like.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Could someone post the images for the euro? I am trying to get a visual feel for the track the euro takes. Does it make landfall at Wilmington and then turn sharply NNE? How about just go to Raleighs site? All there for ya dude http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro500mbHGHTNA_loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 How about just go to Raleighs site? All there for ya dude http://raleighwx.ame...GHTNA_loop.html For some reason I thought the euro wasn't on there. haha I use it for every other model. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Could someone post the images for the euro? I am trying to get a visual feel for the track the euro takes. Does it make landfall at Wilmington and then turn sharply NNE? Here it is at 144hrs And 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 at 12z mon the ECMWF clips montauk point and barrells into RI/SE MASS. Very Bob-like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Here it is at 144hrs And 168 hours. Irene is a powerhouse on the Euro, dangerous Cat 3 hurricane right up the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Rips it right into Atlantic Canada on the 192hr panel, much different than the GFS/CMC solutions. This is a weenies wet dream, best understand now that it won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcalvert Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Here is a good paper on island effects on the propapgation of TCs http://orca.rsmas.mi.../Wang_Chang.pdf In this paper the basic idea is that there is a trough that is formed on the lee side of a mountain range, while a ridge develops on the windward side... in theory the TC would be drawn towards the trough causing the cyclone to move towards the island. That explains why you often see TCs trying to hang around land, because the leeward trough that forms will shift depending on the orientation of the wind direction. Furthermore... if the mountains are tall enough, the llc is impeded by the height of the mountains and is essentially stuck... in this case the lee trough that forms on the lee side of the mountain range ends up developing into the new llc for the cyclone. When the upper level portion of the circulation (the part that is taller than the mountain) moves over the mountain pass, the llc circulation that forms from the lee trough reconnects with the upper level circulation and the cyclone can now progress in a more uniform fashion. This is application of the Bernoulli Principle: airflow through a constricted medium. As the winds progress up the sides of mountains, they increase in velocity which decreases the pressure. So you end up with a pressure gradient between the bottom of the mountains and the tops. As stated, on the leeward side the velocity is at a maximum and then the winds will decrease in velocity coming down which creates a pressure gradient also. So, what you really have is a trough along the mountain range. If there is blocking, this would produce a ridge as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 More latitude gained. LOCATION...18.3N 66.1W ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF AGUADILLA PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES Also DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN FAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...AND IRENE COULD STILL BECOME A HURRICANE WHILE OVER PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES BACK OVER WATER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I know I'm micronalyzing here, but the center moved N 0.1 degrees and W 0.2 degrees in the last hour-- solid WNW. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Based on the new Euro and the GFS ensembles, as well as the majority of the hurricane models (throwing out the obviously out to lunch GFDL) I still think NHC is too far left. I pretty strongly feel this will hit NC or SC. The strength is problematic, but a cat 2 at landfall might be a good first guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The ECWMF at 96 hours is in about the same position compaired to 12z, but not as far to the west at the 00z GFS. At 120 hours its actually east of the 12z ECWMF track and looks more like a SC/NC track. Impressive....a 943mb (27.85" for us old timers) hurricane 200 miles due south of the SC/NC border. Anything even vaguely similar to that scenario will make for one wild weekend along our coastline. And the hours remaining on each model run gets less and less and less.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Impressive....a 943mb (27.85" for us old timers) hurricane 200 miles due south of the SC/NC border. Anything even vaguely similar to that scenario will make for one wild weekend along our coastline. And the hours remaining on each model run gets less and less and less.... ECMWF tends to go a little crazy on the strength. 943mb is most likely too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 At 114 hours (18z Fri) ECMWF position is approx 30N/78W. Pretty far offshore of Fla. Takes it's sweet time east of Fla tho...just crawling. At 126 hours, it looks to be approaching the NC/SC border. A due north track from there would take the center directly over Wilmington, N.C. which sits at 34N 78W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 A due north track from there would take the center directly over Wilmington, N.C. which sits at 34N 78W. The Euro veers it NNE from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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