Analog96 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 hmm. pressure went up 2mb. any reason why? land interaction? Probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I should point out that every single wobble at this point is significant. We're really "threading the needle" with Hispaniola, and a couple of good wobbles N could spell the difference between the cyclone getting totally shredded or skirting the N coast and surviving intact. Given this, I will continue to monitor the wobbles and find them significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Obviously it's going to wobble-- that goes without saying. Once can argue that the recent due-W motion is a wobble-- in which case, it's nice to see a correction the other way. P.S. Ya meant "wary". We're not weary of it just yet-- only if it gets shredded. haha god my spelling sucks. While we are still on the point of wobbles though, the frictional effects actually might be something more significant than just the circulation bobbing back and forth... we saw a very similar effect with Jeanne when it came across Puerto Rico in 2004, as it quickly moved inland first over the island and then started tracking nearly due west once it reached the northern coastline as if wanted to go across the entire perimeter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 haha god my spelling sucks. While we are still on the point of wobbles though, the frictional effects actually might be something more significant than just the circulation bobbing back and forth... we saw a very similar effect with Jeanne when it came across Puerto Rico in 2004, as it quickly moved inland first over the island and then started tracking nearly due west once it reached the northern coastline as if wanted to go across the entire perimeter. Either way, the wobbles are important at this point. (See my post above.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 mission over.. they were out there for 7 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yeah, nice bump N with that last fix. Cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 haha god my spelling sucks. While we are still on the point of wobbles though, the frictional effects actually might be something more significant than just the circulation bobbing back and forth... we saw a very similar effect with Jeanne when it came across Puerto Rico in 2004, as it quickly moved inland first over the island and then started tracking nearly due west once it reached the northern coastline as if wanted to go across the entire perimeter. This might be a bit off topic for this thread (or not?) but can you actually explain to me, or link me to some papers, that explain how and why the friction would affect the path of the cyclone in the way you described? I hope this isn't much simpler than I realize and apologize if it is a stupid question. I understand why friction would slow wind speeds (and increase gust speeds?) but not necessarily why it would "draw in" the storm... Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looks like they aren't upgrading it, despite the 78kt flight level winds, since they did an update, but no mention of an upgrade TROPICAL STORM IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATENWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 130 AM AST MON AUG 22 2011 AT APPROXIMATELY 125 AM AST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE MAY LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR PUNTA SANTIAGO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Either way, the wobbles are important at this point. (See my post above.) Oh yea, I completely agree... we need Irene to gain about two degrees in latitude (from 18 to 20N) from now in order to clear Hispaniola. Lets set that has the target for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Oh yea, I completely agree... we need Irene to gain about two degrees in latitude (from 18 to 20N) from now in order to clear Hispaniola. Lets set that has the target for now Two degrees might be a tall order in that amount of time-- but the more, the better. It's nerve-wracking-- especially now that it actually has a core to mess up. (Twenty-four hours ago, it would hardly have made a difference-- now it does.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looks like they aren't upgrading it, despite the 78kt flight level winds, since they did an update, but no mention of an upgrade The same vortex msg had surface winds estimated at 55kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looks like they aren't upgrading it, despite the 78kt flight level winds, since they did an update, but no mention of an upgrade The FL winds were not supported by SMFR which was no higher than 55 knots in the same area. Not saying there weren't hurricane force winds in there somewhere, but it would have been better if the SFMR supported the FL winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The FL winds were not supported by SMFR which was no higher than 55 knots in the same area. Not saying there weren't hurricane force winds in there somewhere, but it would have been better if the SFMR supported the FL winds. Phil, If this straddles the coast of Florida, won't land friction pull it inland? One track showed it parrallel almost the entire coast of Florida and I was wondering if that would be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 With Irene making landfall on PR we can see if it continues its northward jog. Personally I want it to run..not jog to the north of the islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Phil, If this straddles the coast of Florida, won't land friction pull it inland? One track showed it parrallel almost the entire coast of Florida and I was wondering if that would be possible. Florida has less friction than an island like PR or Hispaniola, though, because it has no mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Florida has less friction than an island like PR or Hispaniola, though, because it has no mountains. Yea I know that. That's why I was asking Phil if it was feasible that it would be pulled inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Nice area of 70 kt winds on the TDWR both at 4000ft (1.5°) (Bottom) and 1000 ft(0.5°) (top) Scraping the north facing coastline.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yea I know that. That's why I was asking Phil if it was feasible that it would be pulled inland. Based on what Phil is saying, there would be much less frictional force from Florida, so while it COULD get pulled inland, the total force would be much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 This might be a bit off topic for this thread (or not?) but can you actually explain to me, or link me to some papers, that explain how and why the friction would affect the path of the cyclone in the way you described? I hope this isn't much simpler than I realize and apologize if it is a stupid question. I understand why friction would slow wind speeds (and increase gust speeds?) but not necessarily why it would "draw in" the storm... Thanks! Here is a good paper on island effects on the propapgation of TCs http://orca.rsmas.mi.../Wang_Chang.pdf In this paper the basic idea is that there is a trough that is formed on the lee side of a mountain range, while a ridge develops on the windward side... in theory the TC would be drawn towards the trough causing the cyclone to move towards the island. That explains why you often see TCs trying to hang around land, because the leeward trough that forms will shift depending on the orientation of the wind direction. Furthermore... if the mountains are tall enough, the llc is impeded by the height of the mountains and is essentially stuck... in this case the lee trough that forms on the lee side of the mountain range ends up developing into the new llc for the cyclone. When the upper level portion of the circulation (the part that is taller than the mountain) moves over the mountain pass, the llc circulation that forms from the lee trough reconnects with the upper level circulation and the cyclone can now progress in a more uniform fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I have a bad feeling this is going to miss Hispaniola entirely.. Irene is going to be on water in a couple of hours, it just clipped the eastern side of Puerto Rico. If this NW motion continues, I'm afraid my first statement is true. A couple of hours ago we were talking about it just skimming the southern side of Puerto Rico. Now look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I have a bad feeling this is going to miss Hispaniola entirely.. Irene is going to be on water in a couple of hours, it just clipped the eastern side of Puerto Rico. If this NW motion continues, I'm afraid my first statement is true. Stop pretending that idea concerns you or makes you "afraid". Please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Stop pretending that idea concerns you or makes you "afraid". Please. FINE. I tried.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jalba Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Updated the radar loop, made it longer by collecting more frames and also slowed the speed a bit. (Radar loop from 12:12am EDT to 1:42am EDT) You can tell the latest movement. Edit: Whoops.. I should have ment EDT, thank you ColdFront77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Here is a good paper on island effects on the propapgation of TCs http://orca.rsmas.mi.../Wang_Chang.pdf In this paper the basic idea is that there is a trough that is formed on the lee side of a mountain range, while a ridge develops on the windward side... in theory the TC would be drawn towards the trough causing the cyclone to move towards the island. That explains why you often see TCs trying to hang around land, because the leeward trough that forms will shift depending on the orientation of the wind direction. Furthermore... if the mountains are tall enough, the llc is impeded by the height of the mountains and is essentially stuck... in this case the lee trough that forms on the lee side of the mountain range ends up developing into the new llc for the cyclone. When the upper level portion of the circulation (the part that is taller than the mountain) moves over the pass, the llc circulation that forms from the lee trough reconnects with the upper level circulation and the cyclone can now progress in a more uniform fashion. Perfect - thanks so much! I'll get to it... should make for good reading tomorrow given the current situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Updated the radar loop, made it longer by collecting more frames and also slowed the speed a bit. (Radar loop from 12:12am EST to 1:42am EST) You can tell the latest movement. Awesome loop-- thank you! Definite, solid NW bump there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Updated the radar loop, made it longer by collecting more frames and also slowed the speed a bit. You can tell the latest movement. The motion is definitely NW in the last few frames. If that continues then Irene should be back over water in a few hours. The land interaction also appears to be affecting the "eyewall" a bit as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 FINE. I tried.. Tried what? To pretend the idea doesn't delight you? C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The motion is definitely NW in the last few frames. If that continues then Irene should be back over water in a few hours. The land interaction also appears to be affecting the "eyewall" a bit as well. Yep-- the center's filling a tad. No biggie if it gets back out over water soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Tried what? To pretend the idea doesn't delight you? C'mon. Yeah pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Perfect - thanks so much! I'll get to it... should make for good reading tomorrow given the current situation. Yea, Puerto Rico is just the warm up... Hispaniola will be the real test bed to see if this theory holds water Technically though you saw it employed with Emily. The llc dissipated on the windward side of the Hispaniola because it couldn't clear the mountain chain. Unfortunately though for Emily's case, the mid-level circulation was quite detached from the llc so thus when land interaction got in the way, the mid-level circulation further detached to the point that it was impossible for the lee trough to redevelop into a tropical cyclone vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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