Major Hurricane Irene live tracking

[Amped]

I heard earlier this is no Floyd.

Any large storm that stalls over the carolinas will produce it's share of rain. The LLJ off the Atlantic keeps the system juiced and the mountains help with lift. There is also a weak front to the northwest of it.

[winterymix]

If the GFS is generally correct, tides in the Chesapeake Bay will be anomalous

by more than one standard deviation.

[OKpowdah]

I heard earlier this is no Floyd.

Any large storm that stalls over the carolinas will produce it's share of rain. The LLJ off the Atlantic keeps the system juiced and the mountains help with lift. There is also a weak front to the northwest of it.

The synoptic set up, and intensity of the cyclone are notably different. Yeah, looks like a big rain producer. Impact-wise they might be comparable.

[thewxmann]

The synoptic set up, and intensity of the cyclone are notably different. Yeah, looks like a big rain producer. Impact-wise they might be comparable.

Floyd had some serious midlatitude interaction that allowed it to be as efficient a rain producer as it was. Don't think Irene will be like that at least in the Carolinas... maybe further north in the NE or New England.

[OKpowdah]

For reference, here's a map of total rainfall from Floyd:

[Floydbuster]

[OKpowdah]

Floyd had some serious midlatitude interaction that allowed it to be as efficient a rain producer as it was. Don't think Irene will be like that at least in the Carolinas... maybe further north in the NE or New England.

Very much agreed

[Amped]

Very much agreed

Irene is slower than Floyd, so I wouldn't be so fast to rule out heavy rain, I doubt 20+ totals though.

[Eyewall2005]

00z CMC into south Florida

[Hoosier]

00z CMC into south Florida

Looks like near Miami? (I'm only out to 84)

Edit: probably north of there but hard to tell exactly where given the angle of approach and limited time plots. Westward shift in any case.

[Jalba]

Latest Loop using the only radar site currently working there.

Also, here is the last radar loop before TJUA went down, too bad... It started to show the eye very well on the last frame.

Here (Its a 3MB loop.)

[HurricaneJosh]

It needs to start gaining latitude, or what's "into S FL" (or anywhere else on the E Coast) is going to be a steaming pile of crap.

[HurricaneJosh]

Latest Loop using the only radar site currently working there.

Also, here is the last radar loop before TJUA went down, too bad... It started to show the eye very well on the last frame.

Here (Its a 3MB loop.)

Awesome loop-- thanks very much for posting this. It looks like the center is just starting to bump more N on the last frame or so.

[easy_b]

00z CMC into south Florida

If I was in South FL I would keep an eye on this system until it passes

[phil882]

I heard earlier this is no Floyd.

Any large storm that stalls over the carolinas will produce it's share of rain. The LLJ off the Atlantic keeps the system juiced and the mountains help with lift. There is also a weak front to the northwest of it.

Again Floyd did not stall as it was moving up the coast. The excessive rainfall in Floyd was caused by a full phase of a shortwave with the circulation of Floyd drawing huge amounts of tropical moisure up in a pre-frontal trough.

Irene is slower than Floyd, so I wouldn't be so fast to rule out heavy rain, I doubt 20+ totals though.

I'm totally not discounting the potential for very heavy rain, especially as slow as the storm is expected to move beyond 120 hours.

[dan88]

78kts at flight level. Methinks we finally got a hurricane.

Center also decided it wanted to gain some latitude, up to 18.1N after the west movement we have seen

[A-L-E-X]

Awesome loop-- thanks very much for posting this. It looks like the center is just starting to bump more N on the last frame or so.

This is what I'm thinking too-- most of the tracks that had it going right into the middle of Hispaniola also had it going just south of Puerto Rico or skimming the south coast.

[Dunkman]

From 84h to 108h on the CMC it looks like it is running right up the florida coast...literally bisecting the center.

edit: That most recent center fix makes me happy.

[A-L-E-X]

Also, note, as is typical with tropical cyclones at higher latitudes, the heaviest rainfall is usually 100-150 miles west of the track.

[wxmeddler]

Wow! it did take a jump north.. Apx. 15 miles at 325° from the last fix..

[HurricaneJosh]

78kts at flight level. Methinks we finally got a hurricane.

Center also decided it wanted to gain some latitude, up to 18.1N after the west movement we have seen

Praise the Lord. I was getting waaaaaay over that W movement.

From 84h to 108h on the CMC it looks like it is running right up the florida coast...literally bisecting the center.

edit: That most recent center fix makes me happy.

Ha ha-- me, too, dude!

[AlYourWxPal]

Per radar, it looks like it is has more of a northerly component right now.

[WeSuck]

If it isn't a hurricane yet it sure has a nice radar signature for a tropical storm. It also looks to be gaining little longitude in that radar loop in the last couple of frames.

[Dunkman]

CMC finally makes a "real" landfall in Savannah at 120h.

[phil882]

Praise the Lord. I was getting waaaaaay over that W movement.

Ha ha-- me, too, dude!

Per radar, it looks like it is has more of a northerly component to right now.

I'd be wary of any major poleward component of motion persisting.... frictional effects are likely causing this recent jump northward. I won't be surprised at all if we see the system shift back on a more westerly course as soon as it reaches the north coast of Puerto Rico.

[Chicago Storm]

Winds sustained at nearly 50kts and gusting to 59kts at this station on the southern side of Ceiba, which is on the eastern side of the circulation.

http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=espp4

[HurricaneJosh]

I'd be weary of any major poleward component of motion persisting.... frictional effects are likely causing this recent jump northward. I won't be surprised at all if we see the system shift back on a more westerly course as soon as it reaches the north coast of Puerto Rico.

Obviously it's going to wobble-- that goes without saying. Once can argue that the recent due-W motion is a wobble-- in which case, it's nice to see a correction the other way.

P.S. Ya meant "wary". We're not weary of it just yet-- only if it gets shredded.

[dan88]

000

URNT12 KNHC 220520

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 22/05:06:10Z

B. 18 deg 05 min N

065 deg 40 min W

C. 850 mb 1352 m

D. 55 kt

E. 043 deg 11 nm

F. 130 deg 78 kt

G. 043 deg 11 nm

H. 991 mb

I. 16 C / 1522 m

J. 20 C / 1516 m

K. 17 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 1 nm

P. AF302 0309A IRENE OB 14

MAX FL WIND 78 KT NE QUAD 05:02:30Z

;

[AlYourWxPal]

I'd be weary of any major poleward component of motion persisting.... frictional effects are likely causing this recent jump northward. I won't be surprised at all if we see the system shift back on a more westerly course as soon as it reaches the north coast of Puerto Rico.

That's why I said right now...just an observation of what is currently happening.

[battlebrick]

hmm. pressure went up 2mb. any reason why? land interaction?