Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 http://radblast-mi.w...ning=0&smooth=0 zoomed out http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 That's the TDWR out of San Juan airport! Yes, I think we all agreed Nexrad is down... BTW, through 24 hours, looks like core of Irene doesn't go through most rugged terrain of Hispaniola, but appears to catch a glancing blow of the Northeast side of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Don't even get me started on this topic. The amount of priceless wx data (radar and surface obs) that has not been collected from the cores of landfalling hurricanes due to simple power failures it mind-boggling. It's such an easily remediable problem, and yet... ugh! The WSR-88Ds are supposed to have a generator for situations just like this. ASOS equipment is a completely different matter and I will get upset quickly the more I talk about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 PRESSURE DOWN TO 990 MB! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 extrap down a bunch this pass, 989.9mb. Still moving nearly due west though, center roughly 17.9N or just a tad south still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yes, I think we all agreed Nexrad is down... BTW, through 24 hours, looks like core of Irene doesn't go through most rugged terrain of Hispaniola, but appears to catch a glancing blow of the Northeast side of the island. Sorry, thought you were giving a local TV radar loop, since you had quoted LEK asking for a link to it. My bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Do you have a link? http://www.telemundopr.com/xstatic/telemundo/template/content.aspx?se=generica&id=zonadeltiempo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 00z GFS literally stalls Irene out on the far NW coast of Hispaniola...weaker & less expansive this run, But trough is deeper in the Eastern US by a relatively significant marigin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Nice little animation of the FIM model here. FIM Model Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Nice little animation of the FIM model here. FIM Model Animation That is cool-- thanks for sharing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman22 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 969 URNT12 KNHC 220358 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 22/03:41:30Z B. 17 deg 54 min N 065 deg 31 min W C. 850 mb 1348 m D. 62 kt E. 157 deg 9 nm F. 247 deg 63 kt G. 156 deg 11 nm H. 989 mb I. 17 C / 1523 m J. 22 C / 1515 m K. 15 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF302 0309A IRENE OB 10 MAX FL WIND 67 KT NE QUAD 01:53:40Z ; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Quite a bit left on this run by about 50-60 miles. Should skirt the EC of FLA or come close to doing so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 looks quite a bit closer to the Florida East Coast at 96 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looks like the general trend in the last 12 hours of model runs is a somewhat stronger subtropical ridge, which makes sense based on current observations. Also, the GFS has trended deeper with the second trough that swings through the Great Lakes around 60-72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Cape Canaveral at 114... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 weakness isn't as pronounced on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 We need the G IV data bad...is the first flight tomorrow afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 at 126 its looking like landfall or close to it by a couple miles, of Savannah. Looks like 980, but the gist is the strengthening it shows after DR so the pressure could easily be lower considering where its at now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 We need the G IV data bad...is the first flight tomorrow afternoon? Omg, totally, dude. My chase partner, Scott747, and I were talking about that this afternoon-- how those data will really bring a lot of clarity to this murky picture. Can't wait to see the models once those data are ingested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Just east of JAX at 126 and crawling...trough trying to dip down into Northern Minnesota, is that enough to create more of a path due north...or could it also bypass allowing for a landfall in Georgia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Landfall in Saint Simons Island GA, don't believe it can strengthen like this right alog the coast but we'll see I guess. Question in my mind is how long does the trend in Increased subtropical ridging continue? NHC track may be best as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 This GFS run is sponsored by Tums... Although the GFS continuing to move Irene north along the FL coast looks a little odd given how the ridging builds in to its north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 looks like it rides the beach all the way up the coast of FL on the GFS and it makes landfall near Jacksonville or comes extremely close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 It looks like it wants to tease the entire space coast of Florida and then make landfall into Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 looks a smidge west this run , at 144 its due south of Columbia right on the SAV river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 VDM.. Down to 989 and not as big as a contrast as before with the temp eye/band. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC) Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 04:08Z Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation. Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302) Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011 Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin) Mission Number: 3 Observation Number: 10 A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 3:41:30Z B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°54'N 65°31'W (17.9N 65.5167W) B. Center Fix Location: 50 miles (81 km) to the SE (135°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA). C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,348m (4,423ft) at 850mb D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 62kts (~ 71.3mph) E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 9 nautical miles (10 statute miles) to the SSE (157°) of center fix F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 247° at 63kts (From the WSW at ~ 72.5mph) G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 11 nautical miles (13 statute miles) to the SSE (156°) of center fix H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 989mb (29.21 inHg) I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft) J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,515m (4,970ft) K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F) K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available L. Eye Character: Not Available M. Eye Shape: Not Available N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature N. Fix Level: 850mb O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile Remarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 1:53:40Z Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 64kts (~ 73.6mph) in the north quadrant at 3:53:00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 It looks like it wants to tease the entire space coast of Florida and then make landfall into Georgia. Yea that's what I thought too. But doesn't land friction want to pull storms inland? I remember Phil saying something about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Wouldn't that be something if Irene cleared Hispaniola and then had ridging building to it's north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Yea that's what I thought too. But doesn't land friction want to pull storms inland? I remember Phil saying something about that. Meh, I think it's different for every storm. What about that other nugget-- don't storms want to follow the Gulf Stream? I dont think you can make generalizations with these storms like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 For those looking, I couldn't see much on the BR from the San Juan TDWR, but I think I can see the center coming into view on the composite reflectivity (I just pulled it up so I only have a couple frames.) Also, on a more OT note, anyone else forgoing sleep tonight to wait up for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.