Windspeed Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Here are the highest points of elevation Irene would potentially cross over. Cerro Punta is the highest point in Puerto Rico with an elevation 4,389 ft. At least part of Irene's core will be crossing it. However, the range is not very wide and combined with only modest elevation, there should be minimal disruption. Hurricane Georges, for example, maintained 970mb over these mountains after some modest entrainment of dry air prior to landfall. Though Georges was already weakening, it maintained category 2 status upon exiting the island. The core appeared to be re-intensifying by the time it moved into the straits before making landfall again in Hispaniola. Pico Duarte is the highest mountain in the highest range of the Caribbean at an elevation of 10,128 ft. If Irene crosses directly over this range, anything is possible. Some hurricanes have managed to traverse or deflect around this range and survive. Georges is another example. However, many storms have met their demise here. Granted, the size of the overall circulation is important, as well as atmospheric conditions. For example, even an intense hurricane with a small core experiencing favorable atmospheric conditions might still be doomed to full disruption of the core and dissipation to a remnant low. Likewise, a hurricane with a large circulation experiencing modest shear and dry air entrainment might still be weakened to the point of full dissipation. But a hurricane with a large circulation and favorable upper-level and environmental support may be able to fully traverse the range from east to west, like Georges, and maintain hurricane intensity. It's really dependent on more than one variable, that being peaks averaging over 8,000-9,000 ft of elevation. By forecast and 500-200mb model data, atmospheric conditions appear to be very favorable for Irene in the coming days. Yet, it will likely take a big hit if the core crosses directly over this range and there will be a lengthy recovery process. Even though Irene has a large circulation, this does not gaurantee the core might even experience full dissipation, though it is probably more likely that the storm maintains TS status and is able to recover, albeit slowly. The GFDL has been fairly persistent in taking Irene over this higher topography, though it doesn't not dissipate the system because of it. The northern range of Hispaniola stretches just inland from the northern coastline. The highest elevation is 4,098 ft, in Diego de Ocampo. This range is not very wide and though it would have an effect on the core, it wouldn't be sufficient to cause significant weakening. Most of eastern Hispaniola contains lowlands, and these low areas of topography stretch from ESE to WNW. If Irene moves parallel to the northern range, much will be dependent on how much of the circulation is off of the northern coastline. If it is a hurricane, it may even be able to maintain hurricane intensity until it exits the Northwestern lowlands. But the key is in the least amount of disruption to the overall circulation, which would likely experience a quicker recovery due to a favorable upper level pattern. This is probably the worst track for folks hoping for a weak system influencing the SE CONUS. Of note, the HWRF model has been somewhat consistant on taking Irene across this region of Hispaniola. The NHC track is closer to the central range, but is more of a cut between the HWRF and the GFDL, though this could change with the upcoming advisory package . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsouth Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Guys, I meant, a pass over the Island and substantial weakening is still on the table. Sure,the NAM stinks in the tropics. Anyway, I don't know what to make of these recent scans - looks like the center is a bit further S. A few interesting things to note the last hour or so of base velocity. Velocities in the southeast quadrant have gone from outbound to weakly inbound. With pure rotational flow, you would expect outbounds in this quadrant. It's possible that the recent switch to inbounds is indicative of increasing low/mid-level convergence towards the center. If this is the case, we may see some significant strengthening in the next few hours (barring landfall). I'm looking out for a similar pattern in the northeast quad (basically the zero isodop shifting north), but haven't seen it yet. Interesting nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Guys, I meant, a pass over the Island and substantial weakening is still on the table. Sure,the NAM stinks in the tropics. Anyway, I don't know what to make of these recent scans - looks like the center is a bit further S. Ah, RECON fix is 17.5/65.2, which compliments the resent scans nicely... It was just shy of 17.9, not 17.5. Vortex had it at 17 and 53/60th since it was latitude + minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I have a question for you METs here. Even though these winds were fond in very heavy rainfall, is it always necessarily contaminated given the the strongest winds in a hurricane, for instance, occur in the eyewall with some very heavy rainfall rates? well that whole way SFMR works is that it looks for the sea foam streaks at the surface of the water. If the rainfall is too heavy, you can see how this obviously affects the reading causing more disturbance than just merely wind alone. There is a lot of good information on SFMR in this resource from AOML http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2005/sfmr.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 60kt with the advisory PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KTESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 One possibility not yet mentioned is that slow movement nearing land will assist in the system avoiding making actual landfall. This is due to sea/air coupled convective elements continuously redistributing the low center under the UVM. We studied this 'skip around' phenomenon in tropical met back in the day. But remember this is for slow moving systems that are not embedded in directive steering. It seems hard to believe Irene has 15 in speed currently but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Latest NHC forecast takes Irene along the N coast of Hispaniola, then scrapes the E Coast of FL from hr 96-120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Progress, now up to 80 knots for max intensity before the second landfall in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Oh, I see what is meant by this - " WHILE THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER APPEARED TO HAVE SLOWED ON RADAR IMAGERY AS THE CYCLONE ORGANIZED DURING THE EVENING HOURS... THE LONG TERM INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD 285 DEGREES AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. " The reason for this is that there is not yet a 6-hourly average to assist in determining if this slow down on rad is ligit - true though... Could be a "wobble" too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Wow....a mention of the FIM in the discussion...(along with the UK and GFDL)....must be a tropical weenie!! THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE FIM MODEL PROVIDED BY THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 A quick snippet from the disco. Correct me if I'm wrong but this is the first time I've seen the FIM model being used as a reference. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFDL AND UKMET...ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON TURNING IRENE NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN 2 OR 3 DAYS. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT SPREAD REMAINS IN THE SHARPNESS OF THIS TURN IN THE MODEL SUITE. FOR THIS CYCLE THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODELS HAVE SHIFTED BACK A LITTLE TO THE LEFT...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF MODELS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UKMET AND GFDL FARTHER WEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...TOWARD BUT STILL TO THE LEFT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE FIM MODEL PROVIDED BY THE HURRICANE FORECAST IMPROVEMENT PROJECT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Puerto rico radar hasn't updated in 30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 For what its worth 00z nam came in with a stronger ridge and futher westward similar to the gfdl. Its not a tropical model but it handles synoptics pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Even the FIM shows a SC landfall lol. The models are in much better consensus than the NHC discussion would lead one to believe--IF one is willing to throw out the GFDL and UKMET, which NHC is obviously unwilling to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Couldn't help but notice but the 00z NAM has quite a different look over the CONUS compared to today's GFS runs for this period. It has ridging bridged from the southern plains out into the Atlantic with not much of a weakness at all north of Irene. Would imply a GOM track no? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/fp0_084.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Couldn't help but notice but the 00z NAM has quite a different look over the CONUS compared to today's GFS runs for this period. It has ridging bridged from the southern plains out into the Atlantic with not much of a weakness at all north of Irene. Would imply a GOM track no? http://www.nco.ncep....0/fp0_084.shtml Ridges don't look all that different to me compared to the GFS/ECM runs unless I'm really screwing something up, seems to be the same relative weakness in the middle. The NAM isn't really a tropical model so I'd weight it more lightly than the ECM/GFS runs. In other news seems like Puerto Rico Radar is down but cyclone was movind due west at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cdawgga1 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Ridges don't look all that different to me compared to the GFS/ECM runs unless I'm really screwing something up, seems to be the same relative weakness in the middle. The NAM isn't really a tropical model so I'd weight it more lightly than the ECM/GFS runs. In other news seems like Puerto Rico Radar is down but cyclone was movind due west at the time. Local Tv station radar is still working and shows the center still offshore but heading due west toward the east coast of the island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I tried to explain this to folks earlier; didn't seem to catch on. I'll try again... The GFDL is a limited grid barotropic version of the GFS. Because of that, it is probably less sensitive to the influences of the larger scale surrounding domain, one which features a trough lifting out of 80W leaving behind a weakness/shear axis extending down into the SE U.S. The better resolution of the Global numerical models also presents a more proficient interaction with the TC, which is responding to that subtle alteration in the critical steering levels. It is important to note, however, that even though these global runs have a consensus E, they could all still be in error per their own accord; then it becomes a nightmare trying to determine what was right, and what was wrong, worse yet, what was right for the wrong reason. Excluding the possibility of that migraine for a moment, I suspect global runs may win this fight. The gfdl hurricane model is a limited area model with a 1/12 degree fine mesh, but it is certainly not a version of the gfs. The only real connection it has to the gfs is through boundary conditions. I'm on my phone, so not going to go into details....but a simple Google search will get you to their website for more (accurate) information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Ridges don't look all that different to me compared to the GFS/ECM runs unless I'm really screwing something up, seems to be the same relative weakness in the middle. The NAM isn't really a tropical model so I'd weight it more lightly than the ECM/GFS runs. In other news seems like Puerto Rico Radar is down but cyclone was movind due west at the time. 000 NOUS62 TJSJ 220326 FTMJUA MESSAGE DATE: AUG 22 2011 03:26:00 THE FAA SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (TJUA) HAS GONE DOWN...MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO A LOSS OF POWER AT THE CAYEY RADAR SITE...AS RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IRENE MOVED ACROSS THAT AREA. WE ARE UNABLE TO RESTART THE RADAR AT THIS TIME AND FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED. RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN. BCS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Local Tv station radar is still working and shows the center still offshore but heading due west toward the east coast of the island Care to cough up a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Still have TSJU TDWR San Juan up and running, but it's not working well on GRLevel3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALhurricane Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 000 NOUS62 TJSJ 220326 FTMJUA MESSAGE DATE: AUG 22 2011 03:26:00 THE FAA SAN JUAN WSR-88D DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR (TJUA) HAS GONE DOWN...MOSTLY LIKELY DUE TO A LOSS OF POWER AT THE CAYEY RADAR SITE...AS RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM IRENE MOVED ACROSS THAT AREA. WE ARE UNABLE TO RESTART THE RADAR AT THIS TIME AND FAA AOCC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED. RESTORATION TIME IS UNKNOWN. BCS Not sure why there is not a generator in place to keep it going.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 SE quad is up to 63kt at flight level, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Not sure why there is not a generator in place to keep it going.... Don't even get me started on this topic. The amount of priceless wx data (radar and surface obs) that has not been collected from the cores of landfalling hurricanes due to simple power failures it mind-boggling. It's such an easily remediable problem, and yet... ugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Still have TSJU TDWR San Juan up and running, but it's not working well on GRLevel3 The radial coverage is definitely small on Grlevel3 but it is all I have access to. Still looks like it is moving due west, moving onshore soon of not now. Edit: 00z GFS takes Irene right over the Cheese Grater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 Care to cough up a link? http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=SJU&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=TR0&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1313984759&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Local Tv station radar is still working and shows the center still offshore but heading due west toward the east coast of the island Do you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 The radial coverage is definitely small on Grlevel3 but it is all I have access to. Still looks like it is moving due west, moving onshore soon of not now. At least you can get hi-res Reflectivity, but Base Velocity has been relatively unhelpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 http://radblast-mi.w...ning=0&smooth=0 That's the TDWR out of San Juan airport! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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