hurricaneman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 This system looks like garbage even though it has a surface reflection, but I do believe this will develop. I can think of systems that looked like garbage at one point and went on to do great but awful things Andrew Katrina Fran Jeanne I dont believe this will be an Andrew or Katrina, but think this could still be a good sized hurricane in the long run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I feel like the 18Z GFS is comparable to that YouTube video where the guy pumping gas gets pummeled by a giant tire flying from behind him. Just surprising as hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Surfside Screamer 0z Brownsville Brawler 6z Tampico Terror Trauma Fixed that for ya. Awesome Jimmy Buffett song by that name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Fixed that for ya. My link Just what I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It is nice to see that all of those plots take 97L to the north of Shredder Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It is nice to see that all of those plots take 97L to the north of Shredder Island. It's all BAMs and NOGAPS. Let's see what the real models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 It is nice to see that all of those plots take 97L to the north of Shredder Island. With the system not expected to really develop significantly until after it passes Hispanola, whether it tracks over the island, north of it, or south of it.... I have to question how much of an impact the island will really have this time. If there's not yet an inner core to disrupt... there's not going to be a structural disruption. Tropical systems have survived these big islands... and even hitting Hispanola, and then tracking up the length of Cuba... and go on to do violent things. What's most important is the environment the system is in after it leaves the islands.... and if there was a disruption of the inner structure when it hit the islands, but if there's not a significant inner structure to disrupt, the terrain can't do too much to damage the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 19, 2011 Author Share Posted August 19, 2011 18Z Spaghetti impressive in showing quite a few perturbations with pronounced low pressure, although I think the Central/Eastern Gulf is probably, at least ensemble wise, more likely than anything as far West as Texas. For that far out, the clustering seems fairly good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 This gives you a view of the whole tropcial atlantic http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaaport_loop.php?PATH=/var/www/leads_images/satellite/GOE/IR/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Maybe a title edit to add Mobile Monster or New Orleans Nailer in the morning after seeing the Euro and the ensembles. I think the 18Z had a bad potato with dinner. Actually I think it might prove not that far fetched.... Teleconnections suggest that any trough trying to dig into the midwest/EC will have a hard time to do it deep enough to completely break the huge ridge. Remember the -AO teleconnection with the southern ridge? Low crashing into the PNW would also pump the ridge downstream...that makes the Bermuda and Sonoran ridge, specially in August, a true behemoth, very hard to kill. It might still happen, specially if we get an energetic shortwave, and with a TC above 22N, it doesn't take that much digging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The 0z NAM goes ape with the trough in Eastern North America. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I like the name Irene...sounds scary. Somehow, all of the I-names sound like good names for annular hurricanes. Isabel comes to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 I like the name Irene...sounds scary. Irene 2005 was projected to hit the east coast 4-5 days out, but it ended up passing between Bermuda and the US. It was fun to track, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The GFS initiated this at 12N which is already wrong by 2degrees latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The GFS initiated this at 12N which is already wrong by 2degrees latitude No, it didn't. Use the 850mb vorticity, not the broad low with the L in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 let's right this ship and stop posting the 84 hr nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 let's right this ship and stop posting the 84 hr nam Thanks Ion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 No, it didn't. Use the 850mb vorticity, not the broad low with the L in it. He is sharing the stellar analysis at a not to be named site. Have mercy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Thanks Ion the banter needs to be kept to a minimum in these threads.. already 100+ in 'em at times. god forbid it actually goes against the rest and threatens the u.s. the last page wasnt too pretty overall, i've cleared about half of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Looks like the 00Z GFS is mostly missing the Dominican just south but a direct Haiti hit , interesting because all the hurricane models have it to the north..... Edit, it actually skims along the whole southern coast of the island, would not be affected too much if this verifies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ZackH Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 The 0z NAM goes ape with the trough in Eastern North America. Its also the only model that goes bonkers with the East Coast trough... major outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Misses the first trough completely (0z GFS), it's Gulf bound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 0Z GFS at 144 hours tells me it it is likely headed pretty far west in the GOM, perhaps like 18Z...let's see if that actually occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Misses the first trough completely (0z GFS), it's Gulf bound. Agreed, looks like it might make a run at the Cayman's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 GoM temps would certainly support rapid strengthening if it entered there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 0Z GFS hits MS late 8/29. 16th U.S.hit in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 WOW. New Orleans's hit with the 0Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 240hr...rapid intensification between 228-240hr...looks like sub 980mb due south of Mobile, AL in the central Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 19, 2011 Share Posted August 19, 2011 Ya...thats not good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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