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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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The fact that the pressure rise isn't nearly as rapid as the pressure fall could mean any of three things:

- The storm is deepening significantly

- The storm is slowing down significantly

- The pressure field is asymmetrical

I think in this case it's a combination of the first two, with emphasis on the first.

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It's looking more and more likely to me that Irene will be barley scraping the Northern coast of DR and could even miss it completely. Irene looks to be taking a 285 heading into PR and is slowing down as she organizes her core even more. If she misses DR we could have some big problems for the SE US the end of the week.

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Looping the radar it looks to me that it will come in on the midcoast on the east side and move WNW and exit about 1/2 the lenght of the island on the north side. The tallest mountains (El Yunque 4000 feet) is on the NE side of the island just south of San Juan. I think the center will follow a valley just south of these mountains but the range should really disrupt inflow for a short time. I think it will leave PR very much intact just weakened somewhat. Consolidation of the core should restart quite quickly as it leaves the island midcoast north. We shall see!

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A very general technique to use (when a storm is in radar range) to estimate a short term path is to view the base velocity scans over a period of time. If the orientation of the line delineating winds blowing away from the radar site and blowing toward the radar site is not changing (circled in blue below), then the storm is basically heading directing toward the radar site. If the orientation of that line is changing, (either "backing or veering") then one can estimate that rate of change and apply it to a track relative to the radar site that deviates one way or the other some estimated distance from the site.

In this case, since the orientation of the aformentioned demarcated line hasn't varied...Irene is essentially headed right toward the site.....

ireneradar.png

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I have a question for you METs here. Even though these winds were fond in very heavy rainfall, is it always necessarily contaminated given the the strongest winds in a hurricane, for instance, occur in the eyewall with some very heavy rainfall rates?

Heavily rain contaminated... The highest FL winds were 67 knots, so they might up the intensity to 55 knots at 11pm baring higher winds found in another quadrant.

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Bring me an East coast landfall and I'll be there. To me, it is looking like the track will only clip the northern area of Hispaniola... the northern area is fairly low in elevation. I do think that there is a very minimal chance that Irene could still make a curve, but I doubt it with none of the models having a very strong trough on the coast at the time of a possible landfall at this time. I am feeling a GA/SC landfall more and more. Should be interesting and my team will be there if things keep trending this way. Wish you could be there with us Phil... like you said, too bad it wasn't two weeks ago!

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I have a question for you METs here. Even though these winds were fond in very heavy rainfall, is it always necessarily contaminated given the the strongest winds in a hurricane, for instance, occur in the eyewall with some very heavy rainfall rates?

Even if the strongest winds are occurring in heavy convection, the SFMR will be high in such situations. The readings aren't correct just because it is giving a high reading in the area where the highest readings are expected. If the highest winds in a storm are occurring in heavy convection, we cannot get an accurate reading of those highest winds with the SFMR, as it doesn't suddenly become correct just because there are no higher winds elsewhere in the storm.

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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 22nd day of the month at 02:13Z

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 302)

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011

Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 3

Observation Number: 07

A. Time of Center Fix: 22nd day of the month at 1:59:00Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°53'N 65°19'W (17.8833N 65.3167W)

B. Center Fix Location: 61 miles (98 km) to the SE (127°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (USA).

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,376m (4,514ft) at 850mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 66kts (~ 76.0mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NNE (24°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 105° at 67kts (From the ESE at ~ 77.1mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 17 nautical miles (20 statute miles) to the NNE (24°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.32 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,533m (5,030ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,522m (4,993ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 850mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the northeast quadrant at 1:53:40Z

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center definitely heading NW right now per radar. every little bit helps as it is less time over land and less time over hispaniola eventually.

http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes

Thats not the center. The center is largely defined right now but not clearly visible on radar. That open area to what looked like an eye, was not the eye. This is still moving Due W

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Bring me an East coast landfall and I'll be there. To me, it is looking like the track will only clip the northern area of Hispaniola... the northern area is fairly low in elevation. I do think that there is a very minimal chance that Irene could still make a curve, but I doubt it with none of the models having a very strong trough on the coast at the time of a possible landfall at this time. I am feeling a GA/SC landfall more and more. Should be interesting and my team will be there if things keep trending this way. Wish you could be there with us Phil... like you said, too bad it wasn't two weeks ago!

Pretty much agree with everything Zach said. We'll be there with Zach's crew too. Heading out Thursday Afternoon.

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No, the GFDL is on crack. Just saw the Euro ensembles, not one member is close to being that far west. This will not go into the GOM. I doubt it hits FL at all, maybe skims the coast.

I agree. I think it was Tip that mentioned how poorly it seeminly handles the interface between the envirnoment surrounding the TC and the nested grid that's embedded in it. Not completely sure, however.

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No, the GFDL is on crack. Just saw the Euro ensembles, not one member is close to being that far west. This will not go into the GOM. I doubt it hits FL at all, maybe skims the coast.

I tried to explain this to folks earlier; didn't seem to catch on. I'll try again...

The GFDL is a limited grid barotropic version of the GFS. Because of that, it is probably less sensitive to the influences of the larger scale surrounding domain, one which features a trough lifting out of 80W leaving behind a weakness/shear axis extending down into the SE U.S. The better resolution of the Global numerical models also presents a more proficient interaction with the TC, which is responding to that subtle alteration in the critical steering levels.

It is important to note, however, that even though these global runs have a consensus E, they could all still be in error per their own accord; then it becomes a nightmare trying to determine what was right, and what was wrong, worse yet, what was right for the wrong reason. Excluding the possibility of that migraine for a moment, I suspect global runs may win this fight.

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I agree. I think it was Tip that mentioned how poorly it seeminly handles the interface between the envirnoment surrounding the TC and the nested grid that's embedded in it. Not completely sure, however.

Oh dern - thanks, and yes - I just reposted those statements.

John

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Thats not the center. The center is largely defined right now but not clearly visible on radar. That open area to what looked like an eye, was not the eye. This is still moving Due W

if it isn't the true center then it may become the dominant center soon as it continues to have storms strengthen and wrap around it.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

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Guys, I meant, a pass over the Island and substantial weakening is still on the table.

Sure,the NAM stinks in the tropics.

Anyway, I don't know what to make of these recent scans - looks like the center is a bit further S.

Ah, RECON fix is 17.5/65.2, which compliments the resent scans nicely...

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