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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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000

URNT12 KNHC 220021

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011

A. 22/00:05:00Z

B. 17 deg 51 min N

065 deg 01 min W

C. 850 mb 1383 m

D. 55 kt

E. 314 deg 46 nm

F. 040 deg 58 kt

G. 294 deg 37 nm

H. 994 mb

I. 16 C / 1524 m

J. 20 C / 1520 m

K. 18 C / NA

L. NA

M. NA

N. 12345 / 8

O. 0.02 / 3 nm

P. AF302 0309A IRENE OB 03

MAX FL WIND 58 KT NW QUAD 23:52:40Z

MAX FL TEMP 21 C 273 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR

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Center roughly (minute format) 1750N 06500W, max flight level winds 58kt NW quad. 994.9mb extrap

Note that the SMFR winds were still at 19 kts, when the HBOB center was observed. Tells us two things, the center is not perfectly stacked and the surface pressure is likely to be just below the extrapolation pressure.

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Wow maybe there's a very good reason for the NHC's 'conservatism' after all

that and if they switched from a gulf landfall to a southeast landfall in 18 hours no one would pay attention to them

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I don't think Puerto Rico will have much effect. I think it can reach Cat 2 before Hispaniola.

If Puerto Rico was a flat island then I would agree, but don't forget it has peaks that exceed 4000 feet so it should stop any strengthening for awhile. Especially if Irene goes through the heart of the island.

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No, GFDL has been playing catch up for days now. I've stopped looking at it for Irene.

You can't just throw out a model because it doesn't show the solution you want it to...granted it is an outlier and not the best model, but objective analysis would inquire one to take all possibilities into account, the storm is developing and the interaction with Hispaniola may play a huge role in it's future track/strength/movement.

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Developing a solid CDO, has excellent outflow. I have seen many a hurricane intensify rapidly to Cat 2 status from tropical storm. As long as it stays along the coast of Puerto Rico then it has a great shot.

You're expecting the cyclone to strengthen over land with 4000ft peaks? Even if it were to "scrape" the Island the flow within the cyclone would be disrupted against the peaks, would rain out a bit, and it would have a hard time strengthening until it passes the Island. And if Irene indeed has a healthy core going into hispaniola that may not be a good thing compared to an open wave moving over the island.

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You can't just throw out a model because it doesn't show the solution you want it to...granted it is an outlier and not the best model, but objective analysis would inquire one to take all possibilities into account, the storm is developing and the interaction with Hispaniola may play a huge role in it's future track/strength/movement.

Yes and this is why NHC is playing it safe

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You're expecting the cyclone to strengthen over land with 4000ft peaks? Even if it were to "scrape" the Island the flow within the cyclone would be disrupted against the peaks, would rain out a bit, and it would have a hard time strengthening until it passes the Island. And if Irene indeed has a healthy core going into hispaniola that may not be a good thing compared to an open wave moving over the island.

Every case is different....so many other aspects that go into a storm, and in what phase those aspects are in can certainly overcome a run in with PR....Take for example a Wilma....let's hypothetically say that it's where Irene is right now during it's bombing phase when she dropped...what...some 50 mb over 12 hrs....if all the environmental factors were exactly the same, PR would most likely only provide a slowing of intensification of such a hypothetical situation.

But your point isn't completely dismissed either...it's a fact that a land mass such as PR is a negative parameter added to the overall equation that goes into a storm's strenghthening. Whether it becomes the dominate term in the equation is highly dependent on the strength of the other terms...

One can certainly argue, with enough historical data that the likeliness of strengthening is low, if that's what the historical data shows.

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