Scorpion Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 New GFDL is much further west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Rough location of the center indicated with the black dot, frame within 2 minutes of recon fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Hmmm, either what is wrong with this model, or what is wrong with every other model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 000 URNT12 KNHC 220021 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 22/00:05:00Z B. 17 deg 51 min N 065 deg 01 min W C. 850 mb 1383 m D. 55 kt E. 314 deg 46 nm F. 040 deg 58 kt G. 294 deg 37 nm H. 994 mb I. 16 C / 1524 m J. 20 C / 1520 m K. 18 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 12345 / 8 O. 0.02 / 3 nm P. AF302 0309A IRENE OB 03 MAX FL WIND 58 KT NW QUAD 23:52:40Z MAX FL TEMP 21 C 273 / 10 NM FROM FL CNTR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Center roughly (minute format) 1750N 06500W, max flight level winds 58kt NW quad. 994.9mb extrap Note that the SMFR winds were still at 19 kts, when the HBOB center was observed. Tells us two things, the center is not perfectly stacked and the surface pressure is likely to be just below the extrapolation pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaguars Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Hmmm, either what is wrong with this model, or what is wrong with every other model? Wow maybe there's a very good reason for the NHC's 'conservatism' after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Wow maybe there's a very good reason for the NHC's 'conservatism' after all that and if they switched from a gulf landfall to a southeast landfall in 18 hours no one would pay attention to them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 didnt the gfdl have irene running thru the carribean and the yucatan channel not too long ago? seems like an outlier at this point with the consensus in the bahamas. thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Getting windy again on St Croix. SSE at 33 with gusts to 49 at the obs station: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=tisx&num=60&banner=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Looks like convection wrapping around the center now. Want recon to get into the NE Quad. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Beautiful Hot tower... Wish I could have Dual-Pol to see some Zdr Columns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 If it weren't for the upcoming land interaction I think Irene would be about to undergo some significant strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 If it weren't for the upcoming land interaction I think Irene would be about to undergo some significant strengthening. I don't think Puerto Rico will have much effect. I think it can reach Cat 2 before Hispaniola. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 If it weren't for the upcoming land interaction I think Irene would be about to undergo some significant strengthening. It could happen, the foward motion is really slowing down which could give it more time over water , which means more time to strengthen.http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=JUA&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I don't think Puerto Rico will have much effect. I think it can reach Cat 2 before Hispaniola. Please explain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 It could happen, the foward motion is really slowing down which could give it more time over water , which means more time to strengthen. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=JUA&loop=yes Still looks to be barreling along just fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Wow maybe there's a very good reason for the NHC's 'conservatism' after all No, GFDL has been playing catch up for days now. I've stopped looking at it for Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 I don't think Puerto Rico will have much effect. I think it can reach Cat 2 before Hispaniola. If Puerto Rico was a flat island then I would agree, but don't forget it has peaks that exceed 4000 feet so it should stop any strengthening for awhile. Especially if Irene goes through the heart of the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 No, GFDL has been playing catch up for days now. I've stopped looking at it for Irene. You can't just throw out a model because it doesn't show the solution you want it to...granted it is an outlier and not the best model, but objective analysis would inquire one to take all possibilities into account, the storm is developing and the interaction with Hispaniola may play a huge role in it's future track/strength/movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Please explain... Developing a solid CDO, has excellent outflow. I have seen many a hurricane intensify rapidly to Cat 2 status from tropical storm. As long as it stays along the coast of Puerto Rico then it has a great shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Developing a solid CDO, has excellent outflow. I have seen many a hurricane intensify rapidly to Cat 2 status from tropical storm. As long as it stays along the coast of Puerto Rico then it has a great shot. You're expecting the cyclone to strengthen over land with 4000ft peaks? Even if it were to "scrape" the Island the flow within the cyclone would be disrupted against the peaks, would rain out a bit, and it would have a hard time strengthening until it passes the Island. And if Irene indeed has a healthy core going into hispaniola that may not be a good thing compared to an open wave moving over the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easy_b Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 You can't just throw out a model because it doesn't show the solution you want it to...granted it is an outlier and not the best model, but objective analysis would inquire one to take all possibilities into account, the storm is developing and the interaction with Hispaniola may play a huge role in it's future track/strength/movement. Yes and this is why NHC is playing it safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 You're expecting the cyclone to strengthen over land with 4000ft peaks? Even if it were to "scrape" the Island the flow within the cyclone would be disrupted against the peaks, would rain out a bit, and it would have a hard time strengthening until it passes the Island. And if Irene indeed has a healthy core going into hispaniola that may not be a good thing compared to an open wave moving over the island. Every case is different....so many other aspects that go into a storm, and in what phase those aspects are in can certainly overcome a run in with PR....Take for example a Wilma....let's hypothetically say that it's where Irene is right now during it's bombing phase when she dropped...what...some 50 mb over 12 hrs....if all the environmental factors were exactly the same, PR would most likely only provide a slowing of intensification of such a hypothetical situation. But your point isn't completely dismissed either...it's a fact that a land mass such as PR is a negative parameter added to the overall equation that goes into a storm's strenghthening. Whether it becomes the dominate term in the equation is highly dependent on the strength of the other terms... One can certainly argue, with enough historical data that the likeliness of strengthening is low, if that's what the historical data shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 This next pass ought to be interesting. An eye has just rapidly cleared out on reflectivity at the higher tilts and is working it's way down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 getting a more well defined eye and also some pockets of 60-70kt winds around 3500ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 getting a more well defined eye and also some pockets of 60-70kt winds around 3500ft Ya, the inner core of the storm is looking better and better on radar, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 This next pass ought to be interesting. An eye has just rapidly cleared out on reflectivity at the higher tilts and is working it's way down. Nice new hot tower on the northern side circulation too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Ive been thru many and still learning but it looks more west to me? Any comments? What "looks more west"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorpion Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Recon has 67 kt FL winds, 66 kt SFMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMimmi Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 What "looks more west"? A wobble or movement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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