Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Okay, came back from a 5 mile run and noticed two things - tell me if I'm off: 1, the center has slowed down significantly over the previous 3 hours; 2, it appears to sinking slightly S of due west over the last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Perplexed by the official track- I guess they are putting all their eggs in the GFDL basket. I do not see it going that far west but I hope it does because if it takes that track of the globals it will not give us rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Okay, came back from a 5 mile run and noticed two things - tell me if I'm off: 1, the center has slowed down significantly over the previous 3 hours; 2, it appears to sinking slightly S of due west over the last hour Yes, the chance of it sliding north of Hispaniola have decreased considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The hot tower on the northeast side of the center is quite impressive, and the reflectivities are solidifying in an arc extending from the north to the southeast sides. This convection appears to be well-inside of the radius of maximum winds, which means we will likely see a period of substantial intensification over the next 6 hours. The arc will probably continue to solidfy and gradually wrap around to become a fully-formed closed eyewall before it impacts Puerto Rico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Perplexed by the official track- I guess they are putting all their eggs in the GFDL basket. I do not see it going that far west but I hope it does because if it takes that track of the globals it will not give us rain. What do you make of the ECM ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Current motion extrapolated rakes Northern coast of Hispaniola but pretty much slams directly into Puerto Rico. WARNING: Remember Debby 2000 and Chris 2006. Systems that were expected to move steadily west-northwest and ended up slowing down, decoupling and remaining weak nothings of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Looks like it's starting to develop a NE eyewall. Seems to be organizing rapidly on radar. Also has basically been drifting W for the past hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Hurriplanes observation this afternoon looks accurate, it has certainly been just south of west the last couple hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Okay, came back from a 5 mile run and noticed two things - tell me if I'm off: 1, the center has slowed down significantly over the previous 3 hours; 2, it appears to sinking slightly S of due west over the last hour I think you are right on. Looking at GRlevel2 its really been crawling over the last hour or two and it has been moving south of due west. Last few frames also shows the convection from the east trying to wrap around the northern part of the eye but its not having much luck right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Im thinking Irene slowing down could be cause for alarm for 2 reasons 1. Puerto Rico gets a bunch more rain 2. That would I would think give a chance for the weakness to close up by the time it gets north of the islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I'm not so convinced it has moved south of west. I don't think the "center" of Irene has been co-located with the center of the rainless zone. In fact, I think the current center might be under part of the "formative northeastern eyewall"... in other words, still north of St Croix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Regarding the radar showing the west wobble, I don't think you can say this is anything but a wobble at this point. This has still been moving north of due west for the past 6 hours or so. It can be difficult to tell where the center is based on radar, and even more difficult when you get hot towers developing close to the center because your eyes are naturally attracted to the echoless region. The hot towers themselves can also distort the vortex and change the center position temporarily as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 We don't need a blow by blow of radar velocity sans any useful commentary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If I had to guess, I'd say the "center" of Irene is near the purple dot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Regarding the radar showing the west wobble, I don't think you can say this is anything but a wobble at this point. This has still been moving north of due west for the past 6 hours or so. It can be difficult to tell where the center is based on radar, and even more difficult when you get hot towers developing close to the center because your eyes are naturally attracted to the echoless region. The hot towers themselves can also distort the vortex and change the center position temporarily as well. Yea, too many premature conclusions drawn from short term trends, imo. Gotta wait it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 We don't need a blow by blow of radar velocity sans any useful commentary. 6:30PM Irene jogging south, going to be destroyed by hispanola 6:45PM Irene stalling, weakness in ridge to rebuild before Irene reaches SC. Charleston breathes sigh of relief. Allan can reschedule CHS vacation. 7:00PM Irene jogs N, vacation back off. 7:15PM Irene stalls again, new weakness in ridge showing up on 18z gfs, Irene now heading towards NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The hot tower on the northeast side of the center is quite impressive, and the reflectivities are solidifying in an arc extending from the north to the southeast sides. This convection appears to be well-inside of the radius of maximum winds, which means we will likely see a period of substantial intensification over the next 6 hours. The arc will probably continue to solidfy and gradually wrap around to become a fully-formed closed eyewall before it impacts Puerto Rico. Man, you guys are making some awesome obs tonight! I was just going to type that this latest little -90C insano tower appears to be assisting in the creation of a much more cohesive eye-wall structure in the N semi-circle, and my eyes hit his post of yours LOL D'oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 If I had to guess, I'd say the "center" of Irene is near the purple dot. Exactly, and you can see the light reflectivity returns on and just south of the island moving NE to NNE, suggesting that the center is in fact just north of the island. This is supported by the wind shift on the island from NNW to W to WSW. The center is definitely NOT in the echoless region to the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Regarding the radar showing the west wobble, I don't think you can say this is anything but a wobble at this point. This has still been moving north of due west for the past 6 hours or so. It can be difficult to tell where the center is based on radar, and even more difficult when you get hot towers developing close to the center because your eyes are naturally attracted to the echoless region. The hot towers themselves can also distort the vortex and change the center position temporarily as well. Agreed - sinking S of due west is hardly a discerned motion. Also, with a system moving so slowly these "giga" motions are going to take place. Another thing I'm wondering ... sometimes before a direction change there is an interval of slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I'm not so convinced it has moved south of west. I don't think the "center" of Irene has been co-located with the center of the rainless zone. In fact, I think the current center might be under part of the "formative northeastern eyewall"... in other words, still north of St Croix. Completely agree I've been watching this all day on gr2 and it seems like the actual center is on the northernmost end of the rain free area. I actually think it is just west of that NE eyewall feature. I've attached where I think the center might be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 18Z HWRF is north of DR. Bottoms out at 924 mb and is just offshore Myrtle at 930 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Completely agree I've been watching this all day on gr2 and it seems like the actual center is on the northernmost end of the rain free area. I actually think it is just west of that NE eyewall feature. I've attached where I think the center might be. Yup, that's about where I'm seeing the center as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 18Z HWRF is north of DR. Bottoms out at 924 mb and is just offshore Myrtle at 930 It rakes the eastern bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Yup, that's about where I'm seeing the center as well. Agree....and once that part of the smaller center closes off, we may see this "bounce" around a little, until convective bands can attach and stabilize it....good stuff to catch on radar!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 It rakes the eastern bahamas. ... Seemin kinda right biased - no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Decent hot tower going up near the center. Nice time to have recon in there as Irene could be on its way to some good intensification int he next 6 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 50kt, 995mb, with the 8pm advisory. 17.8°N 64.9°W for the location. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KMFROM THE CENTER. ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/H. A PUERTO RICO SEISMIC NETWORK STATION AT FAJARDO PUERTO RICO RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 MPH... 56 KM/H AND A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 HH's just picked up 55 kt surface widns with the SMFR appx. 3 miles off the coast of the northern tip of Fajarado county. HDOB time 23:46:00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Center roughly (minute format) 1750N 06500W, max flight level winds 58kt NW quad. 994.9mb extrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 Buoy reports http://www.ndbc.noaa...h.php?storm=at4 or http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/obs.shtml?lat=18.109308&lon=-65.917969&zoom=8&type=h&status=r&pgm=&op=&ls=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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