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Major Hurricane Irene live tracking


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Okay, came back from a 5 mile run and noticed two things - tell me if I'm off: 1, the center has slowed down significantly over the previous 3 hours; 2, it appears to sinking slightly S of due west over the last hour

Yes, the chance of it sliding north of Hispaniola have decreased considerably.

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The hot tower on the northeast side of the center is quite impressive, and the reflectivities are solidifying in an arc extending from the north to the southeast sides. This convection appears to be well-inside of the radius of maximum winds, which means we will likely see a period of substantial intensification over the next 6 hours. The arc will probably continue to solidfy and gradually wrap around to become a fully-formed closed eyewall before it impacts Puerto Rico.

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Current motion extrapolated rakes Northern coast of Hispaniola but pretty much slams directly into Puerto Rico.

WARNING: Remember Debby 2000 and Chris 2006. Systems that were expected to move steadily west-northwest and ended up slowing down, decoupling and remaining weak nothings of storms.

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Okay, came back from a 5 mile run and noticed two things - tell me if I'm off: 1, the center has slowed down significantly over the previous 3 hours; 2, it appears to sinking slightly S of due west over the last hour

I think you are right on. Looking at GRlevel2 its really been crawling over the last hour or two and it has been moving south of due west. Last few frames also shows the convection from the east trying to wrap around the northern part of the eye but its not having much luck right now.

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I'm not so convinced it has moved south of west. I don't think the "center" of Irene has been co-located with the center of the rainless zone. In fact, I think the current center might be under part of the "formative northeastern eyewall"... in other words, still north of St Croix.

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Regarding the radar showing the west wobble, I don't think you can say this is anything but a wobble at this point. This has still been moving north of due west for the past 6 hours or so. It can be difficult to tell where the center is based on radar, and even more difficult when you get hot towers developing close to the center because your eyes are naturally attracted to the echoless region. The hot towers themselves can also distort the vortex and change the center position temporarily as well.

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Regarding the radar showing the west wobble, I don't think you can say this is anything but a wobble at this point. This has still been moving north of due west for the past 6 hours or so. It can be difficult to tell where the center is based on radar, and even more difficult when you get hot towers developing close to the center because your eyes are naturally attracted to the echoless region. The hot towers themselves can also distort the vortex and change the center position temporarily as well.

Yea, too many premature conclusions drawn from short term trends, imo.

Gotta wait it out.

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We don't need a blow by blow of radar velocity sans any useful commentary.

6:30PM Irene jogging south, going to be destroyed by hispanola

6:45PM Irene stalling, weakness in ridge to rebuild before Irene reaches SC. Charleston breathes sigh of relief. Allan can reschedule CHS vacation.

7:00PM Irene jogs N, vacation back off.

7:15PM Irene stalls again, new weakness in ridge showing up on 18z gfs, Irene now heading towards NYC

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The hot tower on the northeast side of the center is quite impressive, and the reflectivities are solidifying in an arc extending from the north to the southeast sides. This convection appears to be well-inside of the radius of maximum winds, which means we will likely see a period of substantial intensification over the next 6 hours. The arc will probably continue to solidfy and gradually wrap around to become a fully-formed closed eyewall before it impacts Puerto Rico.

Man, you guys are making some awesome obs tonight! I was just going to type that this latest little -90C insano tower appears to be assisting in the creation of a much more cohesive eye-wall structure in the N semi-circle, and my eyes hit his post of yours LOL

D'oh

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If I had to guess, I'd say the "center" of Irene is near the purple dot.

Exactly, and you can see the light reflectivity returns on and just south of the island moving NE to NNE, suggesting that the center is in fact just north of the island. This is supported by the wind shift on the island from NNW to W to WSW. The center is definitely NOT in the echoless region to the SW.

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Regarding the radar showing the west wobble, I don't think you can say this is anything but a wobble at this point. This has still been moving north of due west for the past 6 hours or so. It can be difficult to tell where the center is based on radar, and even more difficult when you get hot towers developing close to the center because your eyes are naturally attracted to the echoless region. The hot towers themselves can also distort the vortex and change the center position temporarily as well.

Agreed - sinking S of due west is hardly a discerned motion. Also, with a system moving so slowly these "giga" motions are going to take place.

Another thing I'm wondering ... sometimes before a direction change there is an interval of slow down.

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I'm not so convinced it has moved south of west. I don't think the "center" of Irene has been co-located with the center of the rainless zone. In fact, I think the current center might be under part of the "formative northeastern eyewall"... in other words, still north of St Croix.

Completely agree I've been watching this all day on gr2 and it seems like the actual center is on the northernmost end of the rain free area. I actually think it is just west of that NE eyewall feature. I've attached where I think the center might be.

post-607-0-03947700-1313969899.png

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Completely agree I've been watching this all day on gr2 and it seems like the actual center is on the northernmost end of the rain free area. I actually think it is just west of that NE eyewall feature. I've attached where I think the center might be.

Yup, that's about where I'm seeing the center as well.

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50kt, 995mb, with the 8pm advisory. 17.8°N 64.9°W for the location.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM

FROM THE CENTER. ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS RECENTLY

REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF

69 MPH...111 KM/H. A PUERTO RICO SEISMIC NETWORK STATION AT

FAJARDO PUERTO RICO RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 MPH...

56 KM/H AND A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H.

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