packbacker Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Looks like its going to be headed for CHS again based off the map at 114 Yeah, at 129 it's about to do something not very nice to HH/Camp Lejune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 977 at 126... preparing to make landfall at CHS/HH again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Pcbjr, you're looking at the lowest steering level, for weak tropical storms. You need to look higher up for steering with Irene Thanks! Any link/graphics you might provide for steering currents I should look at for this storm? pcbjr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 OK, Puerto Rico radar, all loops Composite 248 mile: http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_1.php Base Velocity: http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_6.php Rainfall totals: http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_5.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I've cleaned up this thread about dos and donts and amended based on a comment or two i've gotten from pm. As we get into model play by play please consider reading it. The numbers here are steadily picking up and seemingly will steeply climb shortly. We don't want to stifle discussion but let's keep in mind how much traffic can happen in an hour, and remember if you're going against any of the ideas noted you could find yourself missing the chance to be part of this forum for any storm to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 +71 -106 i went with a different color table for velocity, the last table only went to 80 kts, this one goes to 120 kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 CHSV3 has 996.5mb/9.9kt winds with the 5:54 update, winds due west (270 degrees), so center passed not too far North of this location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Eye visible in precip Fields. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 CHSV3 has 996.5mb/9.9kt winds with the 5:54 update, winds due west (270 degrees), so center passed not too far North of this location. Winds have now switched to WSW, station bottomed out at this pressure with 8 kt of wind, so Min pressure is ~996 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Recon is in the air, and at mission altitude already. They left from the southern part of the eye like region, pressure started sub 1000mb at the airport. Lift off and center fix look to be in the same 10 minute set of data, center near 17.8N, extrap pressure 995.4mb 221900 1742N 06447W 9973 00017 9992 +250 +207 360000 000 /// /// 03 221930 1742N 06447W 9972 00016 9992 +250 +239 360000 000 /// /// 03 222000 1742N 06447W 9974 00017 9993 +250 +245 360000 000 /// /// 03 222030 1742N 06447W 9969 00017 9991 +249 +246 360000 000 /// /// 03 222100 1742N 06447W 9970 00017 9991 +245 //// 360000 000 /// /// 05 222130 1742N 06447W 9970 00017 9987 +243 //// 236002 006 /// /// 05 222200 1742N 06448W 9962 00021 9974 +244 //// 242014 018 /// /// 05 222230 1742N 06449W 9723 00230 9977 +236 //// 275017 019 /// /// 05 222300 1742N 06451W 9370 00549 9975 +220 //// 321024 027 /// /// 05 222330 1741N 06452W 8969 00929 9969 +207 //// 323026 027 /// /// 05 222400 1740N 06453W 8602 01290 9971 +188 //// 317027 028 /// /// 05 222430 1738N 06452W 8390 01515 9976 +185 +178 309028 030 /// /// 03 222500 1738N 06450W 8341 01571 9982 +181 +168 302026 026 /// /// 03 222530 1740N 06449W 8316 01590 9976 +178 +171 296021 022 /// /// 03 222600 1740N 06449W 8316 01590 9968 +181 +174 288018 019 /// /// 03 222630 1743N 06447W 8309 01590 9966 +179 +174 277014 015 /// /// 03 222700 1744N 06446W 8306 01587 9956 +185 +173 242008 010 /// /// 03 222730 1746N 06445W 8307 01585 9956 +183 +174 204009 010 /// /// 03 222800 1747N 06444W 8303 01585 9954 +180 +175 186012 014 /// /// 03 222830 1749N 06443W 8309 01579 9956 +178 +174 173017 017 /// /// 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 http://philstropical...es-puerto-rico/ Here are my updated thoughts and track for Tropical Storm Irene... between the ECWMF, GFS, and GGEM, I'm still leaning towards the furthest west ECWMF solution thanks to the stronger than expected ridging shown by a 12z sounding in Bermuda. This is not accounted for in the modeling. Still this track is well rightward of my track last night, as I put too much weight towards the UKMET and GGEM when they were both still showing very leftward solutions. The GGEM has done a 180 since then but it is now a strong rightward outlier since its the only model that shows a weak s/w impulse left behind in the southeast from the first trough. The rest of the models show some degree of ridge building that allows the storm to continue moving N or NNW into the southeastern coastline somewhere between FL/GA and lower SC. Its still super early though so a lot can change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Is there an incoming trough at 174 kicking Irene out? It travels up into C SC... then slowly moves ENE... then toward the NE by 180 getting ready to exit the US near Norfolk... and then it becomes a semi-Nor'easter after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 57kt thus far at flight level, reliable looking 49kt SFMR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Using analogs and no synoptics... Tropical Storm Irene is at 17.7N 64.4W and traveling at 285 degrees. Looking at analog storms traveling beneath 290 degrees and 40 miles within 17.7N 64.4W, Out of 11 storms, only 2 storms travel into the Atlantic or the East side of Florida. Note: Tropical Storm Dean in 2001 is the only storm since 1900 to track into the Atlantic, instead of toward the Gulf Of Mexico/Hispaniola, that meets the requirements as stated above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Is there an incoming trough at 174 kicking Irene out? It travels up into C SC... then slowly moves ENE... then toward the NE by 180 getting ready to exit the US near Norfolk... and then it becomes a semi-Nor'easter after That is all fantasy range anyway, placements of troughs are going to change on the model a week from now. Examining all the small scale features is basically useless on an 168 hr map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Watching my GRLevel3, it appears that center of circulation actually has a very slight SW movement to it. My wife even noticed it, so there's real verification! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 can't say i've seen a plane takeoff in the middle of the center of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 One thing is certain. She is just one giant question mark........ right now http://www.esl.lsu.e...pics&channel=wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Looks like it's still pulling dry air in from he south and southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Has taken a jog south over the last hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 def a WNW-NW movement on the 18z GFS between 126-132hr right before landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Hot tower that's gone up in the past 25 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Using analogs and no synoptics... Tropical Storm Irene is at 17.7N 64.4W and traveling at 285 degrees. Looking at analog storms traveling beneath 290 degrees and 40 miles within 17.7N 64.4W, Out of 11 storms, only 2 storms travel into the Atlantic or the East side of Florida. Note: Tropical Storm Dean in 2001 is the only storm since 1900 to track into the Atlantic, instead of toward the Gulf Of Mexico/Hispaniola, that meets the requirements as stated above. Good stuff, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Last frame shows a 57kft top Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 This was discussed briefly last year but I was wondering at what latitude and forward speed does the coreolis effect have a significant influence on the path of a TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FredRed Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Some 80's just starting to show up on level 2 - http://www.unidata.u...v/webstart/IDV/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 65 - 70 mph wind gust jut now ( stongest so far ), power flickering on off. This should be a cane by now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Watching my GRLevel3, it appears that center of circulation actually has a very slight SW movement to it. My wife even noticed it, so there's real verification! It does look like it has taken a jog south of its previous path, and looks to be getting a little better organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The 500mb heights this morning over Bermuda were a good 30dm higher than any of the global model guidence had, so a more westward track for the next 24-48 hours is certainly possible. Between the ECWMF, GFS, and GGEM, the ECWMF is still the furthest south and west at 12z, and I think given the stronger ridge is the most likely to be correct. This is an excellent point imo - I have been wondering (also) if there might be some special sounding missions into the ridge regions; it is not that unusual for the models to under-do the strength of subtropical ridging in the west Atlantic and 30dm is substantial enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Radar hasn't shown very much movement of the eye over the last hour. Eastern side still hasn't made landfall on point udall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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