Chicago Storm Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 TIST is gusting to 68mph, off to the NW of the LLC . TIST 212116Z AUTO 05034G59KT 1SM +RA BR FEW017 BKN024 BKN080 26/24 A2970 RMK AO2 PK WND 04059/2112 P0015 TSNO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Pressure dropping rapidly at TISX (down to somewhere around 1000.5mb), with winds increasing substantially. http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=tisx&num=60&banner=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 the center that is most evident in the later frames looks fairly tight, with these storms popping up it should become the definite center of circ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 CHSV3 down to 1000mb as of the 5:06 update, winds are 27kt now from 350 degrees (NNW), indicating the storm is at least North of there. On radar the center does appear to be north of st.croix. Near 17.9 heading near 275-280 degree's. Slowly becoming better organized, but no more then 60 knot-65 knots for landfall on the central-southern Coast of Puerto Rico in about 12 hours from now. Eyewall not quite organized enough for more strengthening then that...Puerto Rico should knock it down to 50 knots, I'd expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 This is an interesting radar loop. YOucan really see about 3 different centers cycle in and out of observation - clearly a system still organizing. But it clearly consolidates into one core at the end. That's what I'm seeing on the base velocity loop . The center of that hole looks like will be bisected by Peurto Rico. On my loop it appears to be moving west. Again, note wind speeds lower right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plowable Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Should I take this image with a grain of salt or start to be alittle bit attentive to this storm ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Here are a few pics... wind has died down since we're dead center in the eye right now. Pics are from Christiansted, looking over toward harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Down to 999.5 millibars http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chsv3&unit=M&tz=STN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Via @ caribnews CaribNews/PuertoRico BREAKING -- St Thomas Airport registers a NE wind gust of 68mph. Sustained winds at 39mph (5:16pm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 CHSV3 at 998mb with 21kt winds as of 5:24 update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 FWIW, the 18z GFS setup at hr 42 has it slightly west of the 12z, and the general pattern is for a slightly weaker trough and a slightly stronger subtropical ridge. Just based on that, the 18z GFS will probably show a similar track as the 12z, though maybe slightly further south/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Here are a few pics... wind has died down since we're dead center in the eye right now. Pics are from Christiansted, looking over toward harbor. The eastern "eyewall" may actually be pretty impressive. It looks like it's getting organized fairly rapidly based on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sew&sid=tisx&num=60&banner=on Pressure dropped from 1005.3 to 998.8 in just two hours at St Croix... and winds are still blowing stiffly out of the NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Velocities from the San Jaun radar are increasing in the northern semicircle of the storm. I'm seeing a few 65 to 73 knot pixels showing up now at about 8,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsouth Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The eastern "eyewall" may actually be pretty impressive. It looks like it's getting organized fairly rapidly based on radar. Agreed...Doppler velocities have been steadily increasing over past few hours...now seeing a few values approaching 70 knots @8kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The 500mb heights this morning over Bermuda were a good 30dm higher than any of the global model guidence had, so a more westward track for the next 24-48 hours is certainly possible. Between the ECWMF, GFS, and GGEM, the ECWMF is still the furthest south and west at 12z, and I think given the stronger ridge is the most likely to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Base velocity loop going here, pardon the first few images when I was zoomed in, they'll drop off. I'm showing +85kts and -75kts http://www.daculawea...torm_mode_6.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 The 500mb heights this morning over Bermuda were a good 30dm higher than any of the global model guidence had, so a more westward track for the next 24-48 hours is certainly possible. Between the ECWMF, GFS, and GGEM, the ECWMF is still the furthest south and west at 12z, and I think given the stronger ridge is the most likely to be correct. I agree. Really anyone from the central Florida coast up through Wilmington could be in the crosshairs eventually, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Velocity numbers up to 80 knots now showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 By hr 69, the 18z has the ridge building in quite a bit stronger than the 12z had it. The storm is barely south of the 12z position, but there will probably be greater divergence thereafter. I think that's a reasonable solution, with GA and SC being the most threatened areas. EDIT: However, looks like the 18z GFS is showing the next trough being stronger as well? We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Can someone with knowledge explain why, with an almost due west steering current, this is progged to go north (up the coast)? Is it that trough into S. GA.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Trough over the Great Lakes seems a bit more aimplified this run, not that it matters all that much since ridging appears stronger, but Irene basically in the Same place on 18z vs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 18z GFS at 84 hrs Irene is beginning to bomb out in the Bahamas -- http://raleighwx.ame...tropical084.gif About 150-200 miles east of Miami at 96 - http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs500mbHGHTPMSLtropical096.gif So far, seems pretty similar to the 12z GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Center is contracting on the san juan radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 First few south westerly gusts blowing through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Pcbjr, you're looking at the lowest steering level, for weak tropical storms. You need to look higher up for steering with Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Velocity numbers up to 80 knots now showing up. Last frame shows +96 -98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Looks like its going to be headed for CHS again based off the map at 114 979mb at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Last frame shows +96 -98 A few frames ago I saw 93 kts. at 400 ft. and a TVS with 86 kt. gtg near Caguas...they are definitely in for a long night of rough weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 996.7mb pressure with 13kt WNW winds at CHSV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.