Srain Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 FYI, Euro ensemble mean is a hair further southwest than the Op Euro...most members take it about 100-150 miles off the N FL/GA coast and into SC. After 144 hours, the ensemble cluster diverges dramatically. 144 hour ensembles have 1-2 members in the NE Gulf and 1-2 near Cape Hatteras (out of several dozen members), with the rest focused on SC/GA. That spread at 168 hours widens to just south of Cape Cod to Mobile Bay with the cluster ranging from Savannah to Wilmington. Worth noting for those up the coast, the operational Euro appears to be on the northwest edge of the ensemble guidance. In other words, we have a long way to go for those up the coast and forecast confidence nosedives, probably more than usual beyond day 5-6. Worth repeating. For those 'sold' on any one track, there will be a G-IV mission for upper air data @ 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Absolutely. Of more interest to me is that they now have the forecast track in the shorter term going across PR, just skimming the northern part of Hispaniola, and going north of Cuba. If that track holds for the next couple of advsiories, would expect an increase in the forecast intensity. Yep-- totally. And with just a tiny shift further N with the forecast track, the cyclone 1) mostly misses the Greater Antilles and 2) has more time over water before hitting the USA. So if the models keep right and tonight's forecast track correspondingly shifts right a little more, the implications with regard to the intensity forecast (especially at Day 5) will be dramatic, to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Power lines down, tree limbs flying... Sky clearing eye arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Station just gusted to 60 knots http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=chsv3 Winds have also shifted to close to due N as well. So the center will either go right over or just North. If the center stays on the Nothern, flatter coast of the Domican Republic as current models suggest at the very least we ca probably rule out any significant disuption to the circulation (although the winds will probably go down a bit). Per NHC 5 pm disco it is in fact getting better organized and not simply an artifact to the storm getting closer to the radar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Looks like the exhaust flow has really expanded the last couple of hours, particularly on the sw quad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Gusts to 50mph in Christiansted Excited to be in my first eye! Power lines down, tree limbs flying... Sky clearing eye arrives Cool... keep us updated on what is going on in St. Croix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 storms just exploding now over the north side of the system. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Looks like PR is going to get a full hit later tonight. If the center keeps tightening up, could be some very high wind gusts reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Pressure dropped to 999 and movement has slowed. Perhaps a shift in movement soon.... Right now, extrapolation takes it S of PR actually.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Winds have shifted to 360/0 degrees at CHSV3 (The station with the recent 60kt wind gust on St croix), pressure 1002mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Perhaps a shift in movement soon.... Right now, extrapolation takes it S of PR actually.. yeah, per radar the "eye" looks to be moving west or slightly south of west, but with the new storms firing over the northern part of the system it may tug the center a little further north tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Remember, at this range, to take general banter on regional effects to regional subforums. Since these three crews are probably the worst with that, here's some direct links: Southeast http://www.americanw...-the-southeast/ Mid Atlantic http://www.americanw...al-wishcasting/ New England http://www.americanw...rricane-thread/ Just because the eyes are here doesnt mean you need to post every thought that comes to your head here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Perhaps a shift in movement soon.... Right now, extrapolation takes it S of PR actually.. Yes. and looks like a burst of thunderstorms formed near the eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Storm velocity from Puerto Rico radar, I'll have a loop going here as soon as it collects enough images (maybe 20-25 minutes) http://www.daculaweather.com/grlevel3/storm_mode_1.php Just keep trying it until the loop starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 I think I understand why some of these runs have been taking Irene dead across the big H and somehow manages to find the courage to go on living - that is truly an titanically large circulation field on this TS.... I've seen extratropical cyclones with less areal coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Interesting analysis from CHS NWS: Wednesday...this appears to be a pivotal day in regards to Irene...as a short wave now in the Canadian rockies looks to drop into the trough over or near the East Coast. If this were to occur it might keep the trough in the area longer...which in turn could pull Irene more north and quicker. Many of the model guidance is supportive of this idea with some indications that Irene could stay over the Atlantic. This may be optimistic...but is certainly a possibility. But it is only one model run...so you are strongly advised to refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest information on Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 a time lapse of irene from the last few days. towards the end it really shows just how much organization has occurred in the past day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 For what it's not worth the NAM has a diffused blow up low over Cuba at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Composite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Nicely defined at the low levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Pressure was down to 1003.4 mb at TISX top of the hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Storm tops. Max right now 42kft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 This is an interesting radar loop. YOucan really see about 3 different centers cycle in and out of observation - clearly a system still organizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 Based on radar, the southern and southwestern flanks of the system seem to be organizing nicely into a solid band of precip. The northern and northwestern part was already good, and the eastern portion might be organizing, too (though it's kinda hard to tell if that's just due to it coming into radar range). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 CHSV3 down to 1000mb as of the 5:06 update, winds are 27kt now from 350 degrees (NNW), indicating the storm is at least North of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 seems like there are several centers and with each frame they keep hopping north as one merges into the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 This is an interesting radar loop. YOucan really see about 3 different centers cycle in and out of observation - clearly a system still organizing. The spiral band around the last recognizable center is definitely notable. Looks like that should organize into the dominate center of circulation this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted August 21, 2011 Share Posted August 21, 2011 ... relative velocity. Note the wind speeds in lower right corner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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