Major Hurricane Irene live tracking

[Mallow]

Looks like it might track right over the southern shore of Saint Croix.

[MarkSC]

Anyone care to speculate on why the GFDL is such an outlier? For whatever reason, it has been playing catch up for Irene's whole history--showing a 1008 wave in the W Caribbean in yesterday's runs for instance. A bit perplexing for the model that usually is one of the best.

[tmagan]

N side much less hostile.

Again, though it is the ability to restrict inflow, even if the cyclone doesn't make 'landfall' over the island. That being said, I don't expect it to be particularly strong as it passes Hispaniola.

[MarkSC]

The center is now quite evident on visible satellite. A pretty impressive round of strengthening today.

[matthewweatherwatcher]

I don't see how this misses Puerto Rico now...It is still moving at 280-285 degree's and it appears to be near 17.7 now. This does increase the chances that it moves north of DR/Hati...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Again, though it is the ability to restrict inflow, even if the cyclone doesn't make 'landfall' over the island. That being said, I don't expect it to be particularly strong as it passes Hispaniola.

I understand that, but I'd rather have it skirt the N coast, than tie it's on noose and dangle from a 6,000' peak.

[phil882]

Anyone care to speculate on why the GFDL is such an outlier? For whatever reason, it has been playing catch up for Irene's whole history--showing a 1008 wave in the W Caribbean in yesterday's runs for instance. A bit perplexing for the model that usually is one of the best.

While it certainly has a higher verification score than the HWRF, calling it one the best might still be a little bit generous. As for why its had a leftward bias so far, I honestly don't know why since its showing the same weakness the other models have.

[dan11295]

I don't see how this misses Puerto Rico now...It is still moving at 280-285 degree's and it appears to be near 17.7 now. This does increase the chances that it moves north of DR/Hati...

I would have to agree with this. Easiest way to tell is to watch the San Juan Base Velocity Loop and keep an eye on where the wind direction shifts. Right now that line is right over St. Croix and holding steady.

[dan88]

44kt guest in the Christiansted Harbor on St. Croix recently

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=chsv3

The location is the place to watch for the next 12 hours or so, a bit of lag on observations, but it has 6 minute frequency.

[David Reimer]

[andyhb]

Quite a consensus pulling it north of Shedderola altogether or skirting the north side.

[Sunny and Warm]

Also interesting that the BAM models continue the east trend from their previous run, which was centered on Savannah/Beaufort. I'm thinking we're not quite done yet with the trend. Upper SC coast??

[GaWx]

If you look at the upper-air pattern projected by the GFS/ECMWF just prior to landfall, it resembles much more Hugo (although not quite that favorable) and less Floyd. I'm certainly not forecasting a Cat 4 landfall by any means though.

I agree. Therefore, I wouldn't expect sig. weakening as Floyd did at these latitudes since's there'd be no nearby oncoming trough. That's why I feel that a cat. 3 (still a rare feat that far north) would be quite possible with this track.. maybe about as likely as a cat. 2. Also, I'm not saying a cat. 4 would be impossible. Who knows for sure? These are just guidelines I like to use. Let's face it: SST's are above normal and norms are a bit warmer near the coastline now vs. in mid to late Sep. when Floyd hit as well as when Hugo and Gracie hit. So, there'd be an extra boost from SST's. However, I'm still going with a cat. 4 at CHS being very unlikely.

Regarding comparisons to Hugo and Gracie, notice per old maps that there was a 500 mb high to the NE that was as high as ~597 dm near 35-40 N/65-70W for both Hugo and Gracie. For Irene, the highest being modeled is ~592 dm and the high is centered E rather than NE of the storm....in the 30-35 N corridor rather than 35-40 N. So, yes, much more conducive than Floyd but not as conducive as for Hugo/Gracie imo.

[DopplerWx]

new storms firing over the center now. inflow from the south is looking better

[battlebrick]

http://radblast-mi.w...ning=1&smooth=1

center is going to go over St. Croix.

[DopplerWx]

http://radblast-mi.w...ning=1&smooth=1

center is going to go over St. Croix.

moving nw still.

[phil882]

San Juan, PR Radar suggests that the center will likely make some sort of pass over Puerto Rico. It also suggests improved organization with spiral banding taking shape.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I agree. Therefore, I wouldn't expect sig. weakening as Floyd did at these latitudes since's there'd be no nearby oncoming trough. That's why I feel that a cat. 3 (still a rare feat that far north) would be quite possible with this track.. maybe about as likely as a cat. 2. Also, I'm not saying a cat. 4 would be impossible. Who knows for sure? These are just guidelines I like to use. Let's face it: SST's are above normal and norms are a bit warmer near the coastline now vs. in mid to late Sep. when Floyd hit as well as when Hugo and Gracie hit. So, there'd be an extra boost from SST's.

Regarding comparisons to Hugo and Gracie, notice per old maps that there was a 500 mb high to the NE that was as high as ~597 dm near 35-40 N/65-70W for both Hugo and Gracie. For Irene, the highest is ~592 dm and the high is centered E rather than NE of the storm....in the 30-35 N corridor rather than 35-40 N.

Right now, I would not even seriously entertain the possibility of a cat 4 LF at this latitude....I'd be pondering whether a 2 or 3 is more likely.

I understand that ssts are warm and we will not have a hostile trough nearby, which is why a cat 3 lf is very feasible, but ssts are only a minor factor and these things are immensely vulnerable to any mid latitude perturbation.... and at this latitude, good luck stemming off any subtle pre-LF dry air intrusion or what not......which is what you need to witness a cat 4 LF.

Like winter forecasting, start conservative and leave yourself room to adjust upward because if you have to adjust downward, you've f****d the duck.

[Mallow]

San Juan, PR Radar suggests that the center will likely make some sort of pass over Puerto Rico. It also suggests improved organization with spiral banding taking shape.

Many of the models now seem to take it over the middle or northern part of PR... given the current position, that seems reasonable now.

[HurricaneJosh]

I agree. Therefore, I wouldn't expect sig. weakening as Floyd did at these latitudes since's there'd be no nearby oncoming trough. That's why I feel that a cat. 3 (still a rare feat that far north) would be quite possible with this track.. maybe about as likely as a cat. 2. Also, I'm not saying a cat. 4 would be impossible. Who knows for sure? These are just guidelines I like to use. Let's face it: SST's are above normal and norms are a bit warmer near the coastline now vs. in mid to late Sep. when Floyd hit as well as when Hugo and Gracie hit. So, there'd be an extra boost from SST's. However, I'm still going with a cat. 4 at CHS being very unlikely.

Regarding comparisons to Hugo and Gracie, notice per old maps that there was a 500 mb high to the NE that was as high as ~597 dm near 35-40 N/65-70W for both Hugo and Gracie. For Irene, the highest being modeled is ~592 dm and the high is centered E rather than NE of the storm....in the 30-35 N corridor rather than 35-40 N. So, yes, much more conducive than Floyd but not as conducive as for Hugo/Gracie imo.

Right now, I would not even seriously entertain the possibility of a cat 4 LF at this latitude....I'd be pondering whether a 2 or 3 is more likely.

I understand that ssts are warm and we will not have a hostile trough nearby, which is why a cat 3 lf is very feasible, but ssts are only a minor factor and these things are immensely vulnerable to any mid latitude perturbation and at this latatide.....good luck stemming off any subtle pre-LF dry air intrusion or what not......which is why you need to see a cat 4 LF.

Like winter forecasting, start conservative and leave yourself room to adjust upward because if you have to adjust downward, you've f****d the duck.

Yeah, when I look at the Euro and see all those tightly-wound isobars, I'm not thinking, "Omg, Cat 4 for Charleston!" I'm thinking, "The Euro senses a good environment and suggests this will be a significant, deep cyclone as it comes ashore in the SE USA." That's really about as specific as you can get 5 days out.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah, when I look at the Euro and see all those tight isobars, I'm not thinking, "Omg, Cat 4 for Charleston!" I'm thinking, "The Euro senses a good environment and suggests this will be a significant, deep cyclone as it comes ashore in the SE USA." That's really about as specific as you can get 5 days out.

This.

Something as anomalous as a cat 4 LF at that lat. should not be forecasted until several hours prior to LF if at all; the vast majority of energy during the lead up should be expended on conveying the message that a significant hurricane posing a very real threat is growing more probable.

[Sunny and Warm]

Right now, I would not even seriously entertain the possibility of a cat 4 LF at this latitude....I'd be pondering whether a 2 or 3 is more likely.

I understand that ssts are warm and we will not have a hostile trough nearby, which is why a cat 3 lf is very feasible, but ssts are only a minor factor and these things are immensely vulnerable to any mid latitude perturbation.... and at this latitude, good luck stemming off any subtle pre-LF dry air intrusion or what not......which is what you need to witness a cat 4 LF.

Like winter forecasting, start conservative and leave yourself room to adjust upward because if you have to adjust downward, you've f****d the duck.

I don't know why you continue to say that a cat 4 is nearly impossible. Hugo hit Charleston as a cat 4 in late sept when the SST's are a little less than now, which is at peak. Also, as others have said, there is no trough to weaken it. So, even though it may not reach cat 4, it won't be for any reasons you've stated. This is the closest I've seen to a Hugo redux since Hugo. Not exact, mind you, but in the sense that the only steering is by the high.

[hurricaneman]

What?

Mallows right, if this is headed in any direction its north of due west or 275 to 280

[Sunny and Warm]

This.

Something as anomalous as a cat 4 LF at that lat. should not be forecasted until several hours prior to LF if at all; the vast majority of energy during the lead up should be expended on conveying the message that a significant hurricane posing a very real threat is growing more probable.

Now this I can agree with. I guess I may have misunderstood your point earlier.

[wxsmwhrms]

This.

Something as anomalous as a cat 4 LF at that lat. should not be forecasted until several hours prior to LF if at all; the vast majority of energy during the lead up should be expended on conveying the message that a significant hurricane posing a very real threat is growing more probable.

Agree so much with you and Josh. Getting hung up on the exact category or depth of the surface feature at that timeframe is fruitless. The key is models see the potential for a serious hurricane.

BTW, pressure falling like a rock at Christiansted. Down to 1005 mb, a drop of 6.5 mb in the last 4 hours.

[Amped]

The current track does have it hugging the Gulfstream a little bit

Shear and dry air will determine if it makes CAT4.

[MarkSC]

While it certainly has a higher verification score than the HWRF, calling it one the best might still be a little bit generous. As for why its had a leftward bias so far, I honestly don't know why since its showing the same weakness the other models have.

The same question could be asked of the UKMET, which was one of the top long range models last year. It seems to be reverting to the mean now, though, with it's typically questionable forecasts.

[Big Jims Videos]

It certainly is a huge system, a nice change from joshs recent micro storms. anyone have the size of Hugo or Floyd at this stage in the game for strictly a size comparison?

[HurricaneJosh]

I don't know why you continue to say that a cat 4 is nearly impossible. Hugo hit Charleston as a cat 4 in late sept when the SST's are a little less than now, which is at peak. Also, as others have said, there is no trough to weaken it. So, even though it may not reach cat 4, it won't be for any reasons you've stated. This is the closest I've seen to a Hugo redux since Hugo. Not exact, mind you, but in the sense that the only steering is by the high.

But I agree with 40/70 that it's not useful to the discussion to make such specific intensity predictions 5 days out-- especially such anomalous predictions, and especially after one model run suggests it. I think even uttering "Cat 4" for this region-- which has seen exactly two Cat 4s in the last century-- is silly. Maybe we can just say it looks like a major?

[40/70 Benchmark]

I don't know why you continue to say that a cat 4 is nearly impossible. Hugo hit Charleston as a cat 4 in late sept when the SST's are a little less than now, which is at peak. Also, as others have said, there is no trough to weaken it. So, even though it may not reach cat 4, it won't be for any reasons you've stated. This is the closest I've seen to a Hugo redux since Hugo. Not exact, mind you, but in the sense that the only steering is by the high.

I never said that.....I doubt a LF at cat 4 intensity...BIG diff.

I'll leave it alone....waisted bandwidth, at this point.